Golf Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy PGA Picks and Betting Guide for DraftKings & FanDuel – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
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**Click the image above to see a hole-by-hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
Previous Five Winners
- 2022 - Tom Hoge(-19)
- 2021 - Daniel Berger(-18)
- 2020 - Nick Taylor(-19)
- 2019 - Phil Mickelson(-19)
- 2018 - Ted Potter Jr(-17)
Last Weeks Picks
- Jon Rahm - T7
- Will Zalatoris - MC
- Jason Day - T7
- Robby Shelton - T67
- Taylor Montgomery - T31
- Ben Griffin - T31
- Thomas Detry - T37
- Alex Smalley - T37
- Max Homa - Win
- Ben Taylor - MC
- Kevin Yu - T44
- Will Gordon - MC
Welcome back golf fans. We are coming off an exhilarating finish to the Farmers Insurance Open where Max Homa, the King of Cali, came from five strokes back going into the final round to eventually win by 2 strokes. It was his sixth career victory and fourth in the state of California. With that success, it's surprising he is taking a week off.
This week the PGA Tour heads to San Diego, California for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. The quality of the field is on the weaker side with three players(Spieth, Hovland, Fitzpatrick) ranked inside the Top 15 and just seven ranked inside the Top 50 in Official World Golf Rankings. The reason, in my opinion, is one of two things. The pace of play here with celebrities at the pro-am is about two to three gears below a regular event and the other reason could be the three-course rotation.
This marks the final multi-course rotation event of the season so there are multiple things to note. First of all, the cut this week will be Top 60 & ties due to time and will come after the third round on Saturday. Each player will get one round at Pebble Beach GL, Spyglass Hill, and Monterey Peninsula with those making the cut playing the final round on Pebble Beach GL. You can find each player's course designation and daily tee time on the DFS PGA cheatsheet. This is most important if playing showdown as you will want to target players on Monterey Peninsula as it has averaged over a half a stroke easier than Pebble Beach over the last five years. It's a small sample size but after three years of playing over par, Pebble Beach has played -.8 and -1.2 strokes under par over the last two years so don't count out players there either. The key to showdown in the first three rounds is likely to just avoid players on the tougher Spyglass Hill course.
The other factor that I mentioned over the last couple of weeks with the multi-course rotations is that stats models based off previous sample sizes is much tougher as only Pebble Beach GL has ShotLink. With that, it makes sense to mostly concentrate on Pebble Beach GL as half the rounds are played there, at least for players who make the cut.
Top Stats in Model for Pebble Beach GL
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Proximity from 100-125 Yards
- Good Drive %
- Strokes Gained: Around the Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting on Poa
The first thing that stands out from a course modelling aspect are the extremely small greens on Pebble Beach which are on average 3,500 square feet. This brings two things into scope right away starting with my favourite stat, Strokes Gained: Approach and when looking at Proximity ranges I will give some boost to the wedge game(100-125 yards) with six of the Par 4's under 400 yards. Another stat that is higher in my model this week is Good Drive % which looks at player fairways hit combined with % of the time they get a GIR after missing a fairway. This, in my opinion, is a better stat than just driving accuracy as there are plenty of courses where missing the fairway in the correct spot can still lead to a GIR and birdie chance. Next up also correlates with the small greens which produce a lower than average GIR% and elevates the importance of Strokes Gained: Around the Green. Then, on the green, players will be dealing with Poa greens once again this week so I will factor putting performance on Poa greens in my model.
With all that, let's now dig in and take a look at my core
Course History Targets
World Golf Ranking (#16)
Vegas Odds (9/1)
Leading the way, and by a wide margin, in the course history model this week is Jordan Spieth who won here back in 2017 and has not only made the cut in all 10 trips to Pebble Beach, but he also finished Top 25 nine times with six Top 10's. Some may be worried he is coming off a missed cut but looking back at his past performances at Pebble Beach, he has come in off a missed cut in three of his last last five trips including last year when he finished T2. Spieth's season always seems to kick start here and despite being likely chalk this week, I will still be loading up and just have more than the field average in my multi-entry builds.
World Golf Ranking (#184)
Vegas Odds (80/1)
Good news for those wanting to play the stars and scrubs game this week as there is a lot of value in the mid-tier to top part of the lower tier without having to live in the $6K range. Enter Russell Knox who stands out in multiple areas this week starting with his course history as he has made the cut at this event in six of eight trips and has tallied a Top 15 finish in three of his last five. He also fits the stats model this week ranking 25th in SG: Tee to Green, 9th in Good Drive %, 2nd in overall proximity, 1st in proximity from 100-125 yards and 10th in opportunities gained. He provides a very solid floor and if he can get a spike week with the putter could crush his price this week.
Also Consider: Joel Dahmen who has made the cut in all five tips and has Top 15 finishes in two of his last three trips to Pebble Beach or Nick Taylor who has won here(2020) and has made the cut in six of his lat seven trips with three Top 15's
Current Form Targets
World Golf Ranking (#11)
Vegas Odds (11/1)
Hovland followed up his win at Tiger's Hero World Challenge with an uninspiring T18 at the small-field Tournament of Champions but the overall worldwide body of work since the Tour Championship has been impressive. While the win at the Hero Challenge was an unofficial event, it has a loaded field and he has added Top 5's at the BMW PGA Championship on DP World Tour the Zozo Championship on teh PGA Tour and hasn't missed a cut since the U.S. Open and Scottish Open back-to-back last July. Looking at my stats model, Hovland is 8th overall this week ranking 26th in SG: Approach, 33rd in Poa putting, 27th in Good Drive %, 9th/3rd in Par 4/5 Scoring, and 1st in Birdie or Better %. Despite a T38 in his only trip to Pebble, I am very high on Hovland in all formats this week.
World Golf Ranking (#97)
Vegas Odds (55/1)
When looking at the rookie class, Taylor Montgomery and Thomas Detry have been getting most of the attention this season but Ben Griffin has been quietly impressive, as well. Since missing the cut at the season-opening Fortinet Championship, he has reeled off nine straight made cuts including a T3 at the Bermuda Championship seven finishes of T32 or better. The stats also line up for this terrific form as he ranks(in this field), 4th in SG: Tee to Green, 8th in Par 4 Scoring, and 9th/12th in Opportunities and Birdies Gained on the field over the last 24 rounds. The price is on the rise, but in this weak field I am on board with Griffin in all formats.
Also Consider: Greyson Sigg whose made-cut streak came to an end at the AMEX but still sits at 8/9 for the season, sits 24th in my short-term stats model, and finished T33 in his first trip to Pebble last season.
Stats Model Targets
World Golf Ranking (#155)
Vegas Odds (60/1)
Lipsky is 19th in my overall stats model but when looking at just the last 24 rounds(via FNGC), he jumps into the Top 5 of my model. He is coming off a missed cut at the AMEX thanks to the putter(-4.3 SG:P) but had previously made five straight cuts with three straight Top 25 finishes and two Top 10's. That consistency takes us into that stats model as he leads the field in SG: Tee to Green, is 7th in Good Drive %, 6th in Proximity from 100-125 yards, and 6th in Opp Gained over the last 24 rounds. He also finished with a Top 25 in his first trip to Pebble last year. He is in play for me in all formats.
World Golf Ranking (#112)
Vegas Odds (125/1)
Taylor has moved from the current form section to the stats section as he has now missed two straight cuts. He failed to make a putt in the wind in round 2 of the Farmers last week but despite the poor result, still gained strokes ball striking and in this week's field, ranks 12th in SG: Tee to Green, 14th in Good Drive %, 23rd in Par 4 scoring, and 7th in putting. He has taken huge leaps statistically compared to his rookie season and is a player I don't want to jump ship just yet based on a two missed cuts, especially considering the price is still sitting in the low $7K range on DraftKings. Taylor is once again a top value play for me this week.
Also Consider: Will Gordon who is 5th in SG: Tee to Green, 16th in Good Drive %, 7th in short Par 4's(350-400), and 17th in Birdie or Better Gained over the last 24 rounds and finished T21 here in his only trip or Tom Hoge who is #1 in my short-term stat model ranking 3rd in SG: Tee to Green, 20th in Good Drive %, 1st in SG: Approach, 4th in Prox from 100-125, 1st in Opp Gained, 15th in BoB
- Singapore SMBC Open Golf: (AP Photo/Wong Maye-E)