Basketball Lineups Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
DFS NBA Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Thursday 2/2
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No one player has swayed a DFS slate more than Luka this season and the fact he's at his lowest price since late December has my attention. He returned after a two-game absence and put up his fourth 50-point game of the season and provides us the highest floor and upside combo in the NBA, especially over the last two months. He has tallied 60 or DraftKings points in 16 of 28 games giving him a massive floor even at his price and the upside is even higher as he has tallied 70 or more DK points in nine of those games. He is also the matchup-proof player in teh league so I am not at all concerned with the Pels Top 10 defence and will have exposure to Luka in all formats.
Making it a lot easier to build around Luka is the fact the Warriors will be resting their starters on Thursday leading to another huge influx in PTS/$ value. The good news is that we have seen this play out before so we have some data to draw from so let's start with Jordan Poole who is the biggest beneficiary. While he is very shooting-dependent, he sees about a 5-6% boost in usage with the other starters off the floor, recently put up 40+ fantasy points the last time they all sat, and provides 1.13 DK/1.07 FD points per minute in these spots.
For some real salary savings tonight, consider Ty Jerome who should get another spot start after shooting the lights out on January 20, the last time the starters sat. He played a whopping 41 minutes in that game and was second in shots to only Poole and put up a season-high 22 points. Another shooting-dependent guard but Jerome comes at min price which makes it easy to jam Luka in with another superstar. Lock and load in all formats.
Donovan Mitchell FD - $8300 DK - $8100
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 44.35 DK - 47.79
You are probably asking yourself why I am targeting someone in this game with the second-lowest total on the slate and features two teams tied for #1 in defensive efficiency. It comes down to value as Mitchell sits at a season-low price on DraftKings in the wake of his return from injury. That injury cost him five games which did lead to a minutes limit in his first game back and while that was expected to stay in place, he played 37 minutes last game putting up over 40 fantasy points. Despite the matchup I am on board with Mitchell in all formats considering we are getting about a $1000 discount.
Donte DiVincenzo FD - $5300 DK - $5200
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 26.61 DK - 29.06
How many Warriors in one lineup is too many? That is the biggest question on Thursday and I honestly feel we are going to end up with three to four considering we have a Luka slate. DiVincenzo has been rock solid in these situations recently and is coming off one of his best games of the season the last time the starters sat as he put up 17 points, six rebounds, and four assists for 38 fantasy points. Going back further, he has topped 30 fantasy points in five of his last seven starts for the Warriors and has played at least 3o minutes in each game. All things considered, he is one favourite plays at the SF position and in play in all formats.
Nikola Vucevic FD - $8400 DK - $8900
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 43.01 DK - 46.4
If it's consistency you are after, look no further than Vucevic who checks all the boxes tonight. It starts with the matchup as this game has the second-highest total on the board and Vuce faces a Hornets team that is playing a bit better lately but still rank 27th in defensive efficiency for the season. Give them credit, however, they beat the Bulls last time out and held Vucevic to one of his lowest fantasy outputs of the season. I am not concerned as it was one of just two games he has not reached 40 fantasy points going back to late December(17 games). Vuce is my top center on this slate and in play in all formats.
Jimmy Butler FD - $8400 DK - $7400
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 40.59 DK - 41.84
In a tougher matchup against the Knicks, this pick stands out much more on DraftKings tonight as Butler's price has hit a season-low. He has shown a bit of a lower floor posting under 25 fantasy points three times in his last 24 games but in that time, is still averaging just over 38 per game which gives him a nice floor at this price. He doesn't always have to rely on his shot as he contributes across the board and considering we were paying nearly 10K for him earlier this year, I am on board in all formats at his current price.
Kevon Looney FD - $5000 DK - $4600
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 31.9 DK - 32.82
Let's finish things off with one more Warriors player on another "rest the starters" day. Looney got a start last Friday with most of the starters in the lineup and posted 26 fantasy points before fouling out and the last time all the starters sat(Jan 20), he played 32 minutes and picked up a whopping 17 rebounds and nearly 40 fantasy points. Denver isn't a pushover defensively(15th on the season, 11th last five games) but at these prices, Looney is a part of my core in all formats.