DFS NBA Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Thursday 2/16

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Guards

Jrue Holiday FD - $8000 DK - $7500
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 37.48 DK - 41.19

The system has been loving Jrue Holiday over the last week and to be honest, it hasn't been wrong. Holiday has been playing great in the short-term averaging 24.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 7.0 assists over the past four games while providing us 37 or more DraftKings points in each of those games and showing monster upside last game with 64 fantasy points. The Bulls are not the greatest of matchups(7th in def eff) but are playing on a back-to-back and it helps that Jrue gets all the minutes he can handle and despite playing well has not seen his price go up much at all. He is in play in all formats.

Mike Conley FD - $6200 DK - $5200
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 27.83 DK - 30.77
Bradley Beal FD - $9300 DK - $7700
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 35.74 DK - 38.49

There is a lot to like about this game from a fantasy perspective as it has the highest total(234.5) on the slate and features the only two teams ranked outside the Top 10 in defensive efficiency. Let's start with some exposure to the guards and we can attack both sides here starting with Mike Conley who was a new addition to the T-Wolves at the trade deadline. He was eased into his first start playing just 26 minutes but was unleashed last game against the Mavs and looked good providing just over 31 fantasy points. At his current price, we are looking for a 28-point floor and he has tallied that in 11 straight games.

On the other side of the ball, Bradley Beal is coming off a poor fantasy effort but we cannot ignore the price differential as FanDuel has him over $9K while DraftKings has dropped the price back down into the $7K. That is where I am comfortable playing Beal now that he is no longer the 30-points-per-game player he was a few years back. Before that disappointing effort last game, he was on fire tallying 40+ fantasy points five straight and more good news as he is getting the volume again. Both guards are in play in all formats.

Also Consider: Terance Mann(LAC) as a value play who has dropped 29 or more fantasy points in three of his last four games

Small Forward

Kyle Kuzma FD - $7700 DK - $7900
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 34.66 DK - 38.78

Kuzma returned from injury last game and looked great putting up a ceiling game against Portland with his fifth 50+ point fantasy effort over the last month. During that same stretch(11 games), he has averaged nearly a double-double on 22.2 points and 8.4 rebounds and has also added 4.5 assists and 1.1 blocks+steals for an average of over 42 fantasy points per game. That is terrific output for a player who is sub $8K on both sites and was peaking at $9K not too long ago. I mentioned wanting lots of exposure to this game and Kuzma is as close to lock as there is on tonight's small slate.

Josh Okogie FD - $5600 DK - $4900
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 29.94 DK - 31.26

The Suns made one of the biggest splashes at the trade deadline acquiring superstar Kevin Durant but he isn't expected to join the lineup until post-All-Star-break. In the meantime, Josh Okogie has been making the most of his current opportunity and has seen double-digit shots in three straight and making the most of it with 17+ real points and 32+ fantasy points in each. He is projected to make his third straight start tonight and on a small slate where we are desperate for value, Okogie is in my player pool in all formats.

Power Forward/Center

Kawhi Leonard FD - $10200 DK - $9100
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 42.41 DK - 44.42

The system isn't exactly a fan of Kawhi but he checks almost every box for me tonight starting with a DraftKings price that was in the mid $10K range a month ago and has steadily dropped into a great buy-low spot. Kawhi has returned to elite status and has been very consistent lately averaging 28.2 points, 6.2 rebounds, 4.6 assists, and 2.7 blocks+steals for over 49 fantasy points per game over the last month(11 games). The matchup is where the risk comes in which I am not as concerned about on a small slate and considering the price drop on DraftKings. Fire up Kawhi in all formats on DraftKings and use him as a GPP play on FanDuel.

Deandre Ayton FD - $9000 DK - $8300
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 40.7 DK - 43.46

We started things off with a balanced build in mind so let's finish it off that way, as well. Ayton is probably going to lose some fantasy when Kevin Durant joins the lineup but until then, we should continue to rely on his consistent floor night in and night out. He has been a beast lately averaging a double-double on 23.8 points and 11.7 rebounds while providing us over 45 fantasy points a game going back nearly a month(11 games). Even with Booker back in the mix, he has tallied 22 or more points in three straight with double-doubles in two straight. All things considered, Ayton is a core play for me in all formats.

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