Golf Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy PGA Picks and Betting Guide for DraftKings & FanDuel – Mexico Open
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**Click the image above to see a hole-by-hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
Welcome back golf fans. This week the PGA Tour heads south for the Mexico Open and with it being sandwiched in between two elevated events(RBC Heritage & Wells Fargo), we have a very weak field. The good news is that World #1 and defending Mexico Open champion Jon Rahm will be teeing it up alongside Tony Finau(#16) and Alexander Noren(#50) who are the only other two players ranked inside the OWGR Top 50.
Last year was the inaugural running of this event which saw Jon Rahm(-17) edge out Brandon Wu, Tony Finau, and Kurt Kitayama by one stroke. Vidanta Vallarta is a par 71 course that is one of the longest on tour which automatically has bombers in play and that showed in 2022, as well. With three of the Par 3's 195+ yards, six of the par 4's over 450 yards, and two of the Par 5's over 600 yards long iron play is also going to play a huge factor once again. This was proven last year as we saw over 40% of all approach shots come from beyond 200 yards(via FNGC) which is close to double the tour average.
Playing along the coast will always bring the wind into play and an early look shows golfers may get treated this week as winds look calm. Make sure to always check the forecast closer to lock as it can change rapidly.
World Golf Ranking (#1)
Vegas Odds (3/1)
We got the pricing we asked for early in the season with these weak fields led by superstars. He is even $700 more on DraftKings than he was a year ago at this event and you could argue that salary could be higher as he is slightly less than 3-1 to win. He not only won here last year but comes in with even better form coming off a win at the Masters and with four total trophies to start the year. Looking at the stats, he is 3rd in driving distance, 1st in long iron proximity, par 3, 4, and 5 scoring, opportunities gained, and birdies gained over the last 24 rounds.I am not going out on a limb making Rahm my top golfer as I build around a stars and scrubs core. Let's now dig into the value that we will use to build around him.
World Golf Ranking (#148)
Vegas Odds (90/1)
There has definitely been a price increase which is mostly relative to the field but Daffue has definitely helped earn it, as well. After an awful start to the season, he has found some form over the last couple of months not only making six straight cuts but finishing T29 or better in four of his last five and a season-best T15 at his most recent stop, the Valero. Looking at the stats, he should be able to use his distance to his advantage(20th on the sheet) and he also stands out with the irons rankings 13th and 23rd in proximity from 175-200 and 200+ yards.
World Golf Ranking (#117)
Vegas Odds (66/1)
At the same price, we have Robby Shelton and while he doesn't jump off the page in terms of driving distance, he has made up for it with his iron play. He ranks 9th in SG: Approach on the sheet, is 29th and 24th in proximity from 175-200 and 200+ yards, and one other area he has an advantage over Daffue is around the green(ranked 7th in this field on the sheet). After a rough stretch where he missed back-to-back cuts at the Players and Valspar, he bounced back at the Valero gaining 7.9 strokes tee to green finishing T15. He is in the mix for me in all formats.
World Golf Ranking (#307)
Vegas Odds (150/1)
While the smallest of sample sizes, Novak looked terrific here last year as a rookie on tour ranking 8th in tee to green and ended up finishing T15. Now he returns in even better form having made the cut in seven of his last eight events and coming off his first career Top 10 finish at the Valero. His strengths are around the green and putting which give him a nice floor so if he can put it together again ball striking, we could see another excellent finish but at these prices, a Top 20-30 would also work.
World Golf Ranking (#351)
Vegas Odds (125/1)
After a runner-up finish here in 2022, it is Brandon Wu who is getting most of the attention this week and while I will have some exposure, I like Dylan Wu a little more at a cheaper price. It really comes down to form and Dylan has been much more consistent coming in with seven-straight made cuts with two Top 25's and a Top 10 at the Honda Classic. He is Top 20 in both Par 4 and 5 scoring in this field but where he really stands out for me statistically is with the long irons where he is 6th over the last 24 rounds.