Golf Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy PGA Picks and Betting Guide for DraftKings & FanDuel – AT&T Byron Nelson
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TPC Craig Ranch
Par 72 - 7,468 Yards
Greens - Bentgrass
**Click the image above to see a hole-by-hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
- 2022 - K.H. Lee(-25)
- 2021 - K.H. Lee(-26)
Course History Targets
World Golf Ranking (#44)
Vegas Odds (25/1)
The AT&T Byron Nelson has been played here at TPC Craig Ranch twice and both times Lee has come out on top with a combined score of -51 while gaining a total of 29.4 strokes on the field. With the WD of Jordan Spieth, that is a whopping 13 strokes better than the next-best golfer at this course over those two years. He is also coming into this year's event with arguably his best form yet with a T8 last week at the Wells Fargo Championship and has three Top 25 finishes in his last four events. I won't be betting him outright at this number but will have exposure on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
World Golf Ranking (#48)
Vegas Odds (28/1)
Again, it's a small sample size but Kuchar is right up there at the top of the second tier behind K.H. Lee who created a tier of his own. Kuchar has finishes of T12 and T17 here at TPC Craig Ranch and ranks 13th in SG: Total in this field. It is sometimes hard to explain Kuchar's course history at some of these longer courses as he lacks distance and accurate long irons which seems to be a terrible combo here. Well, he more than makes up for it with an elite around the green and putting game and is a tactician on the par 5's making up a ton of strokes there, as well. He also comes in with nice form tallying three straight Top 25 finishes. Fire up the veteran in all formats.
Also Consider: Scott Stallings who has finishes of T25 and T3 here at TPC Craig Ranch
Current Form Targets
World Golf Ranking (#2)
Vegas Odds (5/1)
With Spieth backing out on Monday, Scheffler becomes the overwhelming favourite in this weaker field event and the World #2 easily comes in with the best form not only in this event but arguably in the world. His worst finish of the season came in his first event with a T48 at the CJ Cup and has since not finished outside of 12th across 10 events with two wins(WMPO, Players) and six Top 5's. He does everything well statistically, has Texas ties, and while the course history hasn't been great(T47, T15) considering the price, he has gotten better each time and could easily dominate en route to a third win entering another major. It also helps there seems to be plenty of cheap options to make the stars and scrubs build more realistic.
World Golf Ranking (#245)
Vegas Odds (110/1)
Another value play ranked top 25 in my model this week and it is largely driven by current form. While it's not held at the same course, it is pretty ironic that Walker comes into this week with his best stretch of form since back in 2018 wrapped around a T6 at the Byron Nelson. He has tallied four straight Top 25 finishes, two of which were elevated events(Wells Fargo/RBC Heritage) and gained five or more strokes on those fields in all four. He has been taking advantage of his distance and what he lacks in long irons, he more than makes up for with a near-elite around the green(5th L24) and putting(16th L24) game. At these prices, I will have exposure in all formats.
Also Consider: Dylan Wu who has made nine straight cuts including Top 25 finishes in three of his last four
Stats Model Targets
World Golf Ranking (#136)
Vegas Odds (50/1)
Jaeger bombs all around as he checks almost every box this week and is #8 in my overall model. He is easily having the best season of his career as he comes in having made 15 of 18 cuts(83%) and the only thing holding him back from more Top 10's(currently one) is the putter. In this field, he ranks 4th in SG: Tee to Green, 7th in SG: Approach, 8th in Par 4 scoring, and 14th in SG: Around the Green but just 129th in putting. Despite losing over three strokes putting last year, he managed a T38 and that is a solid floor this week with a Top 10 being his projected upside.
World Golf Ranking (#192)
Vegas Odds (125/1)
Lashley is high on my value list this week for several reasons starting with the form and stats. Like Jaeger, he has been making cuts consistently(7 of last 9) but has failed to show a ton of upside just yet(one Top 10). It feels like he is very close, however, as he gained 6.6 strokes on approach last week at the Wells Fargo, has gained strokes on approach in five straight while also gaining strokes putting in three straight. He is another player who lacks distance off the tee but makes up for it with elite long irons and is Top 10 in this field in approaches from 200+ yards over the last 24 rounds. After a missed cut here at TPC Craig Ranch in his first trip he looked good last year tallying a T17 and a similar result would crush value at these prices.
Also Consider: Joseph Bramlett who outside of putting is pretty much Top 25 in all my key stats this week