Golf Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy PGA Picks and Betting Guide for DraftKings & FanDuel – 123rd U.S. Open
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Los Angeles Country Club(North Course0
Par 70 - 7,421 Yards
Greens - Bentgrass
**Click the image above to see a hole-by-hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
Previous Five U.S. Open Winners
- 2022 @ The Country Club - Matthew Fitzpatrick(-6)
- 2021 @ Torrey Pines - Jon Rahm(-6)
- 2020 @ Winged Foot - Bryson DeChambeau(-6)
- 2019 @ Pebble Beach - Gary Woodland(-13)
- 2018 @ Shinnecock Hills - Brooks Koepka(+1)
Key Stats in my Model
- Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
- With the course being long with a combination of very penal rough, I am looking at overall SG: OTT but do favor accuracy(fairways gained) over distance. The perfect scenario would be a bomber who has above-average accuracy off the tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- This is a great stat to look at overall and when breaking it down further I will be adding some weight to long iron play with it being a long course with six Par 4's ver 450 yards, three over 500 yards, and three of the four Par 3's over 200 yards, one of which is 290 yards!!
- Strokes Gained: Around the Green
- The smaller greens, high % of long iron approaches, and very penal rough will make short game play very important this week as a par at a U.S. Open is as important as a birdie at a regular tour event
Let's start with World #1 Scottie Scheffler who once again checks every box as the most expensive golfer this week. The form has been incredible as he has not finished outside of 12th place in 14 straight stroke-play events with two wins(WMPO, PLAYERS) and enters the week with four straight Top 5 finishes while gaining an insane average of 15.4 strokes gained tee to green per event. He has been just as good in majors, as well, making 11 of 12 cuts since the start of 2020 with a win at the 2022 Masters, runner-up at last year's US Open, and runner-up at the most recent major, the PGA Championship. If he can get the putter back on track this week, he will be force to be reckoned with come Sunday.
Speaking of major championship success, we can't go any further without mentioning Brooks Koepka. Despite playing less and in less competitive events on the LIV Tour, Brooks has continued to build an elite Hall of Fame resume in the majors with a win at the PGA Championship and a runner-up finish at the Masters this season. The win was his fourth major in his career and when not winning, he has been incredibly consistent making the cut in 17 of 19 majors with 12 Top 10 finishes. The value in the betting number and DFS price is no longer there but Brooks should still be a core play in all formats.
Rose was a core play for me last week and was in contention up until the 8th hole on Sunday when he put one in the water and took a double bogey. He still ended up with a T8 which was his second Top 10 in his last three events and the consistency goes back even further as he has Top finishes in five straight events going back to the Masters with three Top 10's. He has been accurate off the tee(21st in FW Gained L24) and has also been dialled in with the irons(17th in SG: APP L24), especially from long ranges(13th/11th in Prox from 175-200/200+ yards). He has been up and down at the US Open recently but won it back in 2013 at Merion and has been terrific at the first two majors of the season with a T16 at he Masters and T9 at the PGA Championship. At these prices, I will have exposure in all formats.
If it's consistency you are after, look no further than Matsuyama who has that covered from every angle. Let's start with his track record at the U.S. Open where he has not only made the cut nine of 10 times, but has six straight finishes of T26 or better with two Top 5 finishes(T2 in 2017, T4 in 2022). It's not just the U.S. Open either as he has made the cut in 18 of his last 20 majors which is 5th best among players with five or more major appearances during that stretch. Finally, we look at his current form where Deki has made six straight cuts with no finish worse than T29 and has gained strokes on approach in each of them and averaged +3.8 per event over his last three. Looking at the stats over the last 24 rounds, he has been above average in both FW Gained(31st) and SG: Approach(27th) and has been elite around the greens(6th). Fire up Matsuyama in all formats and even consider an outright bet at the right number around 40-1.
World Golf Ranking (#113)
Vegas Odds (350/1)
Eckroat will be making his second career U.S. Open start after getting into the 2019 field while attending college at Oklahoma State. He missed the cut that time around but is in a much better position to not only make the cut but be a PTS/$ star in our DFS lineups. After a rough start to 2023, he has come into his own lately making the cut in five straight events while gaining an average of 6.8 strokes ball striking in four straight. What stands out the most about his game fitting this tough course is the fact he is 8th in this field in Fairways gained and 10th in Proximity from 200+ yards over the last 24 rounds. At these prices, a made cut would be enough, especially on FanDuel, but I feel he also has Top 20-30 upside making him one of my favourite value plays in all formats.
World Golf Ranking (#92)
Vegas Odds (175/1)
Down in the same value range but with a little more U.S. Open experience is Patrick Rodgers who has played in America's Open four times, making the cut each time. While he has never cracked the Top 25(T31, T31, T41, T46), he has been very consistent for the price. It also helps that he enters this year's open with some nice form having made the cut in six of his last seven events wit three Top 20 finishes. The accuracy off the tee(106th) is always a concern but he makes up for it with his distance reducing the yardage into the greens and really has made up for it with his scrambling(10th in SG: ATG L24).