Weekly Fantasy Football Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy NFL Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 3 Main Slate 9/24/23
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Patrick Mahomes got Travis Kelce back in Week 2 and went right back to being awesome again. He finished 29/41 for 305 yards and two touchdowns against the Jaguars and should be set to air it out against the Bears here as well. The game could get out of hand, for sure, but the Bears are already second-to-last in the league in yards per pass attempt through two weeks. The defense is rough and the secondary should get picked apart here. There are some pricey QBs to consider this week in cash, but Mahomes sits at the top of the list.
In this price range I probably just want to spend all the way up for Mahomes, but there’s a case to be made for Lamar Jackson coming just a bit cheaper. He’s completing passes at a 75% clip through two weeks and is also coming off a 12-rush game as well. The Colts are allowing a bunch of yards per pass attempt to opponents through the first two weeks and Jackson has more receiving weapons than before with Zay Flowers already looking like the guy and Mark Andrews returning last week.
I really only like to roster running quarterbacks in cash, but on DraftKings there’s a case to make an exception with Cousins this week. At just $6600 in a game with a 54 total, there’s a path for him to paying off rather easily. The Vikings have had to throw a bunch through the first two games and that could be the case again. Cousins is averaging 350 yards and 3 TDs in that stretch and could be in line for a similar output this time around.
Jerome Ford FD 5600 DK 4800
Proj Points FD - 16.49 DK - 18.31
Nick Chubb suffered a horrible knee injury and has been lost for the season. That’s left Jerome Ford as Cleveland’s new (for now) bellcow running back. They did have Kareem Hunt back in the building for a visit, so things could change, but for this week at least Ford is the guy. Pricing didn’t update with the Browns playing Monday night leaving Ford as a punt play who will be close to 100% owned in cash games.
Jahmyr Gibbs FD 7000 DK 6600
Proj Points FD - 18.4 DK - 21.47
It looks like David Montgomery is going to miss this game, though we might have to wait a day or two to have that confirmed. Were he to miss then Gibbs would make a clear plug-and-play in cash games at these prices. While I do think Craig Reynolds will get some backup base touches, Gibbs is in line for a big usage increase.
He’s coming off a week that saw him play 48% of the snaps, carry the ball seven times, and get nine targets in the passing game. This could be an all-in type game for the rookie and he’s coming too cheap on DK, especially with the full PPR scoring.
Raheem Mostert FD 6600 DK 6000
Proj Points FD - 16.51 DK - 17.7
Raheem Mostert was the full-on feature back for the Dolphins in Week 2, carrying the ball 18 times for 121 yards and two touchdowns while playing 72% of the snaps. He’s in another great spot here at home against the Broncos as -6.5 favorites. While Denver hasn’t allowed an insane pace or below-average yards per attempt on the ground, this is still a good spot for Mostert in this offense at these prices. He’s a better deal on FanDuel for sure.
Travis Etienne Jr. FD 8000 DK 6900
Proj Points FD - 18.77 DK - 20.94
Travis Etienne fell flat in Week 2 against the Chiefs, going for just 12 carries, three targets, and 52 total yards. It was a bummer especially considering the projected pace and scoring that was supposed to come out of that one. But you have to like the spot for the Jaguars this week as -9.5 home favorites against the Texans.
Houston is allowing 4.3 yards per rush attempt to opponents through the first two weeks and Etienne should see the bulk of the carries here.
Justin Jefferson FD 9700 DK 9300
Proj Points FD - 22.26 DK - 27.03
With some of the savings we will get at running back this week, Justin Jefferson becomes a pretty tough fade in cash games. He’s second in the league in targets with 25 (Puka Nacua with 35, just like we all saw coming) and is playing in the game with (by far) the biggest total at 54 against the Chargers.
This could be a track meet in the dome and in that case, we are going to want to spend all the way up here. The price is tough because we will have to make some big concessions especially if rostering Mahomes or a pricey QB, but Jefferson is well worth it.
Note: Tyreek Hill is also in a good spot at a similar price point to Jefferson. As a tiebreaker, I’ll take the potential LAC-MIN game script and play Jefferson in cash.
Nico Collins FD 6900 DK 5300
Proj Points FD - 13.94 DK - 17
Through the first two weeks, Nico Collins has 20 targets which ties him for 6th in the league among wide receivers. He’s the WR1 even with Tank Dell making a push last week in what looks like a pass-happy offense because they’ll be trailing games.
That could be the case this week as underdogs to the Jaguars. Collins’ DK price doesn’t match the opportunity here and early-season we can still take advantage of prices not fully adjusting.
Mike Williams FD 7200 DK 6000
Proj Points FD - 16.79 DK - 20.36
Austin Ekeler looks like he is going to miss this week again and that’s going to leave some more passing game volume out there for the Chargers' wide receivers. Mike Williams saw a whopping 13 targets in Week 2 against the Chiefs and could be in line for another big game after going 8 catches for 83 yards.
They’ve been running him in the slot more this season (about 34% of the time) and the usage is there. He’s priced well below Keenan Allen and makes for a bit more cost-effective way to get exposure to this LAC passing attack.
Jayden Reed FD 5900 DK 3800
Proj Points FD - 10.67 DK - 13.11
If looking to save a little money at WR in Week 2, you can do worse than Jayden Reed who’s priced pretty darn low on DraftKings at $3800. The Packers clearly don’t want to throw a ton, but Reed still has a 25% target share from Jordan Love through the first two weeks. The former has combined for 13 targets, six catches, and 75 yards. That’s not overwhelming but it’s something. And he offers a way to cut some salary corners.
Durham Smythe FD 4800 DK 2900
Proj Points FD - 8.28 DK - 10.53
John Bates FD 4700 DK 2800
Proj Points FD - 7.21 DK - 9.12
At tight end, we are typically hoping to get out of the position as cheaply as possible and call it a day. That’s the case once again here with Durham Smythe and John Bates. Smythe has been on the field for virtually every single one of the Dolphin’s offensive snaps through the first two weeks and has 10 targets total. For his DK price, we can live with that.
Meanwhile, John Bates should be the starting TE if Logan Thomas isn’t able to go this week. The latter took a massive hit on a touchdown catch last week and is unlikely to play here. That would leave Bates, who saw 5 targets in Week 2, in line for an increased role.