Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy DraftKings and FanDuel NBA Picks - Monday, November 13, 2023
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Point Guard/ Shooting Guard
The Raptors get, by far, the best matchup on the slate for Monday facing off against the Wizards who rank third-to-last in defensive efficiency and 7th in pace. It’s a perfect spot to stack one team on a shorter slate of games and Dennis Schroder’s price makes it relatively easy to do so.
We’ll get to some of his teammates here shortly, but there’s still value in rostering Schroder here. In closer games, he’s tracking for 32-33 minutes and has had decent usage, getting up 13 or more shots in three of his last five games. The assists can come and go with Scottie Barnes controlling the action at times, but the pace volume makes up for a lot here. This is a pretty easy way to start cash games.
De'Aaron Fox is already doubtful for this game after sitting out the last three and Keon Ellis has seen the role steadily expand in the short-term. He started two games ago, got the start again last time out and saw a career-high in minutes with 31.
He’s not going to be a feature part of the offense, but the rookie is coming so cheap that he really doesn’t need to be for our purposes. Ellis has been able to chip in across the stat line enough for a decent floor at these price points. Considering the Kings won the last two, I don’t see them making a lineup change for this game.
Meanwhile, I’m not typically wanting to get bench guys in for cash games, but Malik Monk is one of the rare exceptions because his role is relatively locked in. He played 29 last game, took 12 shots (4th highest on team) and finished with 12 points and eight assists. There’s even room for growth on those numbers again and on a short slate, his middle-tier pricing helps round out some lineups.
Scottie Barnes FD - $9400 DK - $9000
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 51.28 DK - 53.33
Scottie Barnes is having one heck of a third season so far, starting off the year showing the promise that might have been forgotten after a down(ish) sophomore campaigns.
He’s averaging 20 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 5.8 assists (all easily career-bests) while shooting 35.3% from three on almost six attempts per game. There’s a reason he’s behind only Tyrese Maxey in the Most Improved Player award odds right now. This is an easy call to play him against the Wizards on this slate and I suspect he’s one of the highest-owned players.
Kevin Huerter FD - $5800 DK - $5900
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 31.13 DK - 33.85
Keegan Murray FD - $6600 DK - $6400
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 37.57 DK - 39.68
If we believe Kevin Huerter’s minutes over the last two games as being real, then we are getting a fantastic value on him for Monday’s slate of games. He ran 39 (with OT) and 34 against Portland and Oklahoma City respectively and was a usage animal last game to boot.
Huerter put up 19 shots (4-10 from three) and finished with 28 points and nine rebounds. It was one of the best games of his career. With Fox still out of the lineup, there are shots to go around here and Huerter’s price doesn’t quite match the opportunity.
Keegan Murray has been another guy who’s benefited from Fox being out of the lineup and his minutes have been among the best in the league since the beginning of the season anyway. The reason the price is reasonable is because the three-point shooting has been horrendous in the short-term, going just 19% from downtown on more than seven attempts per game over the last five. The price is fine here all things considered.
Power Forward/ Center
Pascal Siakam FD - $7700 DK - $8000
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 43.34 DK - 46.77
Considering we are stacking the Raptors here in cash games, it’s going to make sense to have Pascal Siakam along for the ride as well. Siakam is having a down year, no doubt about it, and that’s keeping the price on the lower side than we’ve seen in the past. Part of it is Scottie Barnes stepping up, but Siakam is also shooting 26.7% from three (career 33%) and just worse in general from the field as well.
While I do expect some positive regression there, it’s worth noting that the rebounds and assists are down as well. But that’s keeping the price in this range and there is still higher minutes upside for Siakam if the game stays close.
Domantas Sabonis FD - $10100 DK - $10100
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 52.87 DK - 57.3
The Cleveland Cavaliers are playing just a middle-of-the-pack defensive efficiency this season and are actually 5th in pace. That’s making them a better DFS matchup for our purposes and one of the reasons we are higher on the Kings for this shorter slate of Monday games.
Domantas Sabonis is coming off a triple-double performance against the Thunder from Friday in which he finished with 17 points, 13 rebounds, and 13 assists. That’s in his range of outcomes once again here and despite prices in the upper tier, I do think there’s enough value to roster him.
If you think Deni Avdija (FD 5900 DK 6300) can maintain playing minutes in the 30s then he makes for a solid value on this slate.