Weekly Fantasy Football Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy NFL Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 11 Main Slate 11/19/23
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The top QBs, in terms of overall scoring, aren’t on this slate and CJ Stroud who’s been amazing has really shot up in price. It leaves us in an interesting spot at the position for this week. I think we can turn to Sam Howell who is in a great spot at home against the Giants. Big Blue stinks, just got lit up by Dak Prescott and has basically called it on the season. Meanwhile, Washington is still (somehow) kind of in the NFC playoff hunt and could use a layup win here.
Howell has attempted 42 or more passes in each of the last four weeks and has averaged a few rushes as well. His price doesn’t break the bank on either site and I think we can stack him with a Commanders’ running back as well for cash.
This one is going to take a little stomach to manage, but there’s definitely a case to be made for Trevor Lawrence in cash. He’s had a bad run of late, running up against the Saints, Steelers, and 49ers in the last three weeks. But now he’ll face a below-average Tennessee Titans secondary who rank well below average against the pass.
The Titans are something of a funnel defense and this is a get-right spot for Lawrence who shouldn’t be as bad as he’s been in recent weeks. Plus, we are getting him on a price drop as well.
Kyler Murray’s return paid dividends even if the efficiency wasn’t amazing. He attempted 32 passes, completing 19 and going for 249 yards. Plus he scrambled six times for 33 yards and a touchdown. This week he’s up against the Texans who’ve had no problem getting into shootouts this season.
Opponents play at an above-average pace and the conditions here line up well for cash. Kyler hasn’t been totally price-corrected for what we can expect from him going forward, and not throwing any TDs last week kept the salaries relatively in check.
Christian McCaffrey FD 10000 DK 9300
Proj Points FD - 22.79 DK - 25.62
Christian McCaffrey is second in usage (carries + targets) to only Josh Jacobs on the season though CMC has played in one fewer game. Not many running backs have this kind of workload and offensive environment to combine just with the overall skill. He’s facing off against the Bucs as a -11.5 home favorite which is the total sweet spot for ball carriers.
The 49ers should be playing from ahead here and CMC is script-independent anyway because of how they use him in the passing game.
Brian Robinson Jr. FD 7200 DK 5800
Proj Points FD - 15.2 DK - 16.89
Running backs as home favorites is where we want to be and that’s the case with Brian Robinson this week. He’s facing off against the Giants who just allowed 168 yards on the ground to the Cowboys (oh, and also 472 through the air). Robinson can get phased out if the game script goes sideways, though he did have six targets last week and Antonio Gibson is dealing with a toe issue. In terms of running downhill, he should have the chance this week and the price on both sites is totally reasonable.
Devin Singletary FD 6500 DK 5300
Proj Points FD - 14.89 DK - 16.03
Devin Singletary followed up a chalk fail in Week 9 with a bust-out performance in Week 10 with 30 carries for 150 yards and a touchdown. It was a clear sign the Texans are fine using him as a bell-cow back with Dameon Pierce out and the latter is trending towards sitting once again. The Cardinals have the 31st-ranked defense in the league according to PFF and this is another smash spot for Singletary who is still totally reasonably priced for the potential amount of work.
Tyreek Hill FD 9800 DK 9300
Proj Points FD - 21.85 DK - 26.34
Both CMC and Tyreek come into Week 11 with massive upside though rostering both in cash will be tough. I prefer McCaffrey’s safety but Tyreek makes for one of the toughest week-to-week fades there is in football.
He’s coming off the bye week and now will face the Raiders with the highest implied team total of the slate. Hill is the second-best DraftKings scoring player this season behind only Josh Allen (played one more game) and is easily the top WR scorer this season.
Tank Dell FD 7000 DK 5900
Proj Points FD - 15.9 DK - 19.48
Noah Brown FD 6100 DK 4800
Proj Points FD - 14.99 DK - 17.52
Nico Collins FD 7200 DK 6700
Proj Points FD - 11.83 DK - 14.06
Playing these guys does depend on the health of Nico Collins who sat out again last week and Noah Brown who hasn’t practiced. As of this writing, Collins hadn’t practiced yet this week (but was trending positive) and Brown was just hit with an injury tag.
Tank Dell had a 36% target share in Week 10, getting 14 looks on his way to a 6/56/1 line. The targets are massive and that line is on the low end of expectation considering how many he got.
Meanwhile, Noah Brown saw eight targets and turned them into a ridiculous 7/172 line himself. These guys combined for 56% of CJ Stroud’s passing attempts and would be trending towards that again against a terrible Cardinals’ defense. We need to keep a close eye on this situation.
Garrett Wilson FD 7000 DK 6400
Proj Points FD - 15.38 DK - 19.02
The Jets stink. That much we know. But somehow they aren’t eliminated from the playoffs yet and have a swing game with the Buffalo Bills this week who’ve had their own struggles. For all of Zach Wilson’s issues, he is looking at Garrett Wilson a ton lately. The latter Wilson has 12 or more targets in each of the last four weeks.
The efficiency isn’t amazing, but it’s good and Garrett has averaged eight catches and 91 yards per game in that stretch. For these prices, we can roster him in cash assuming the looks will keep coming his way.
Trey McBride FD 5900 DK 4400
Proj Points FD - 11.44 DK - 14.31
Any concerns about Kyler Murray slowing down the production for Trey McBride was immediately dispelled in last week. The latter had a 28% targets share, getting nine looks and finishing with eight catches for 131 yards. T
he price, unbelievably, still hasn’t come up and fully corrected here, especially on DraftKings where I don’t think we need to hesitate at all running him out there in cash games. I suspect he’s a chalkier option this week as well.
Evan Engram FD 5700 DK 4300
Proj Points FD - 11.66 DK - 14.83
Evan Engram has seven or more targets in every game this season except one, and that was the first game of the season. In terms of steady usage, it doesn’t get much better than this from a tight end. He’s yet to really hit a ceiling game, but the floor should always been there with this type of usage. It’s unexciting, but the DraftKings price doesn’t break the bank either.