Daily Fantasy DraftKings and FanDuel NBA Picks - Tuesday, December 12, 2023

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Point Guard/ Shooting Guard

D'Angelo Russell FD - $6600 DK - $6200
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 33.22 DK - 36.45

There is some chance Anthony Davis sits in this game, and even if he doesn’t, then the Lakers still have the highest team total of the night. It can be tough to trust D'Angelo Russell’s minutes on a game-to-game basis totally, but I think this is a fine spot considering some of the context.

He’s coming off a 32-minute game against the Pacers in the In-Season Final, but before that, it had been pretty hit or miss. Regardless, against a team without a clear point-of-attack defense, Russell should be able to score here, and I do think there’s some chance LeBron and AD take their foot off the gas, at least some after the games over the weekend.

Dante Exum FD - $6100 DK - $5700
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 37.8 DK - 40.09

Jaden Hardy FD - $4300 DK - $4600
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 26.04 DK - 29.09

There’s some weirdness here because obviously, it would seem like Luka Doncic is the play here with Kyrie Irving out. But the price is high on him; it’s a short slate, and the Mavericks are coming on the back-to-back after Luka ran 44 minutes in the win over the Grizzlies. With Kyrie Irving out, Tim Hardaway Jr. questionable, and Derrick Jones Jr. doubtful. The Mavericks could need a lot of minutes from both of these guys.

Dante Exum has been excellent in an expanded role lately, averaging 14.7 points, 6.7 assists, and 5.3 rebounds over the last three games. And he’s taking just about 12 shots per game in that stretch as well. The usage, even sharing the court with Luka is fine. His price has climbed some but I still think he’s something of a value all things considered.

Meanwhile, Jaden Hardy is a bit riskier here, and we might need firm injury news on THJ first. Hardy played 34 minutes in the win over the Grizzlies and scored 19 points with four assists. The 15 shots were the second-most on the team which is a good sign and I think the minutes will be there if things break right. Again, we will have to take this one up until lineup lock.

If Jamal Murray sits then Reggie Jackson (FD 5100 DK 6300) becomes a strong play, especially on FanDuel.

Small Forward

LeBron James FD - $10100 DK - $9700
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 53.04 DK - 57.16

Lebron James is coming off winning the NBA Cup In-Season Tournament, and he could be taking his foot off the gas which is concerning. But he is facing the 22nd-ranked defense in the league with Dallas and is coming at a higher point total for this slate.

Obviously, he turned the clock back some last week to take home the tournament, but on the season he’s still been markedly efficient with 55.3/ 40.7/ 71.7 splits and a 25/ 6.6/ 7.5 line. The DraftKings price is too low for this slate, and I think the floor is plenty high here even with some of the other context.

Cam Reddish FD - $4700 DK - $4400
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 21.34 DK - 21.09

Cam Reddish has been one of the cool stories in the NBA this season, beginning as a reclamation project at the outset and now starting for the Lakers and playing meaningful, high-leverage minutes. This slate could have a lot of value on it if some of the stars end up sitting. If that happened, then Reddish would move to the back of the line.

But if everything shakes out with the top dogs playing, then we might need Reddish’s sub-$5K salary to help make things work.

Power Forward/ Center

Dereck Lively II FD - $6100 DK - $5600
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 33.17 DK - 33.92

Olivier-Maxence Prosper FD - $3800 DK - $3700
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 17.6 DK - 18.56

Dereck Lively II has been averaging 30 minutes per game over the last five and is putting up very good numbers as the Mavericks’ starting center. In that stretch, he’s averaging 12 points, 10 rebounds, and 3.6 blocks+ steals.

It’s the latter defensive stats part that gives him pretty big upside, especially on FanDuel where those count just a bit extra. There’s foul trouble concern against the Lakers bigs, but at these prices you probably need to just live with it and move on. He’s been too good on a per-minute basis in his rookie season.

And then there is O-Max Prosper who should get the start for Derrick Jones Jr. who left Monday’s game early with an injury and is doubtful for this game. O-Max played 18 minutes off the bench against Memphis and finished with 11 points, four rebounds, and two assists. We could see the minutes hit the mid-20s at least if he’s running with the starters and his punt prices would help with lineup builds on this slate.

After these two guys, we might need to wait on some injury news to see how things shake out. For instance, if Jamal Murray sits on the second half of the back-to-back then Nikola Jokic (FD 12300 DK 11900), Aaron Gordon (FD 6200 DK 6800), and Michael Porter Jr. (FD 6700 DK 7600) would all vault to the top of the value list.