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Daily Fantasy NFL Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 17 Main Slate 12/31/23
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We are probably in a spot where we will need to spend up for quarterback this week, and that could leave us in something of a tricky spot. This game very much means something for the Eagles who are still fighting for the NFC East and get to face off against the dreadful Cardinals. It’s a dream spot, and Philly is -11.5 home favorites.
He’s third among quarterbacks in rushing yards and second overall in the NFL in rushing touchdowns. The floor is just so, so high here and though the Cardinals don’t allow a ton of passing yards per game, it’s mostly because they are getting crushed on the ground.
If you watched the Chiefs play the Raiders last week, I would understand the hesitancy to play Mahomes in cash games this week. He was running for his life and completed only 61% of his passes for 235 total yards. But I think we can go back to the well here, considering he’s going against a Bengals’ defense, allowing the fifth-most passing yards per game and most passing yards per pass attempt.
They are the dream spot for opposing quarterbacks and Mahomes has seen the price come down some. This is a smash spot in a place for the Chiefs to get right.
It is going to be tough rostering one of the expensive quarterbacks and also getting CMC into lineups. But there’s reason to try because McCaffrey is pushing up against historic levels now. He’s about 500 yards away from the yards-from-scrimmage record, which is a tough sell, but it’s still (just a little) plausible. He could also conceivably move into the top 10 in single-season touchdown scoring as well.
Plus, he faces off against the Commanders, who completely stink, and the 49ers still need to win out for the playoffs. This is lining up basically perfectly for CMC.
Kyren Williams FD 9400 DK 8300
Proj Points FD - 23.32 DK - 25.44
The Kyren Williams usage remains among the best in the league and he’s touched the ball at least 22 times in each of the last five games. He didn’t see any targets last game, but he still ran the ball 22 times against the Saints, running up 104 yards and scoring a touchdown. His price isn’t all the way for how much the Rams use him. Plus, the Giants allow the second-most rushing yards per attempt on the season. LA is -5.5 road favorites here and could really lean on Williams throughout the game.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire FD 6500 DK 5300
Proj Points FD - 15.82 DK - 17.72
It looks like the Chiefs are going to be without both Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon for this game. They should lean all the way on Clyde Edwards-Helaire who is just a week removed from running the ball 13 times while getting four targets in the passing game. He played 62% of the offensive snaps but McKinnon played in that one. CEH wasn’t efficient, but the volume should win the day here against the Bengals. He’s not priced correctly for the potential usage and should be one of the higher-owned plays on the slate.
If Josh Jacobs sits again, then Zamir White could shoulder a lot of the load for the Raiders' backfield once again.
Tyreek Hill FD 9800 DK 9300
Proj Points FD - 20.82 DK - 25.03
Ok, there is one more (very) high-priced guy here, but like CMC and the two QBs, there’s plenty of context. For starters, the Dolphins are going to be without Jaylen Waddle for this game and that could mean Tyreek Hill sees basically every target in the passing game.
While that’s overstating it of course, he is coming off a week where he saw 14 targets against the Cowboys. Plus, he’s 323 yards from tying the single-season receiving yards record set by Calvin Johnson. It’s a long shot, but there’s at least a shot. Of all the huge money guys, I would likely rank Hill fourth, but without Waddle, we could see unreal usage.
Nico Collins FD 7300 DK 7200
Proj Points FD - 17.74 DK - 21.14
Noah Brown FD 6500 DK 5100
Proj Points FD - 12.96 DK - 15.57
CJ Stroud should be back this week, and that greatly improves the Texans passing game prospects across the board. Combine that with a price reduction on the WRs because they’ve been playing with backups over the last couple of weeks. Plus, there’s no Tank Dell anymore here. We should see most of the targets go to Nico Collins and Noah Brown in this game against the Titans.
The game is being played in great conditions at home in Houston, and the Titans are considerably better against the run than the pass. This whole thing could get funneled to the wideouts. I even like stacking these guys in cash.
Joshua Palmer FD 6000 DK 4900
Proj Points FD - 11.85 DK - 14.45
With Keenan Allen out, and Austin Ekeler possibly limited, the Chargers could once again funnel a lot of targets to Joshua Palmer. He had eight looks last week against the Bills on 33 Easton Stick pass attempts. Denver is a bottom-third passing defense on the season both in yards per attempt and yards per game. Palmer is coming cheaper on DraftKings in a possible WR1 role for a team against a weak opponent. A lot lines up even with the QB situation a bit iffy.
Dallas Goedert FD 5800 DK 4800
Proj Points FD - 13.68 DK - 17.13
Dallas Goedert has seen nine targets in the last two games though he’s totaled only 101 yards in that span. It’s so far on the low side of expectation that I think we should get him going in cash games at these prices. He’s a total value on both sites mostly because the targets haven’t turned into many yards or touchdowns. But that’s fine for our purposes and he is among the best options at the position this week.
Gerald Everett FD 5300 DK 3500
Proj Points FD - 9 DK - 11.54
Chigoziem Okonkwo FD 5400 DK 3600
Proj Points FD - 8.44 DK - 10.6
Here are a couple of cheaper options in good spots this week, each of whom have seen targets in recent weeks. Everett got eight looks from Easton Stick last time out, converting them to seven catches and 42 yards. Meanwhile, Chig Okonkwo had seven targets and finished with six catches, 63 yards and a touchdown. Both coming in the $3.5K range on DK makes them cash game viable.