Weekly Fantasy Football Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy NFL Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 18 Main Slate 1/7/23
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Week 18 always offers some of the trickier DFS situations because teams’ motivations are all over the place, with some sitting, some going all-out, and some kind of in between. The Dallas Cowboys fall into the all-out category with a chance to win the NFC East. That should mean a ton of passes from Dak Prescott against the Washington Commanders and one of the worst defenses in the entire league.
It’s a dream spot for Dak Prescott who has put up some awesome numbers this season, completing 68% of his passes for 4,237 yards and a 32:8 TD:INT rate. The price is up there, but the floor might be the highest of any QB on the slate.
The Bears aren’t playing for anything here, though this could be one final audition for Justin Fields to remain the starting quarterback into next season. They already have the #1 pick via the Panthers, so they are in a bit of house money territory against the Packers. This could be play spoiler territory, and I love the floor on Fields, who has been completing passes efficiently enough and still runs as much as any quarterback in the game. Coming cheaper than Dak with the ground game as a floor-raiser, I do like this spot for Fields, especially on DraftKings.
Going on the cheaper side of things, we get Tyrod Taylor who was a popular DraftKings play in Week 17 and could be one again this time around. The Giants aren’t playing for much besides spoiler, but that’s what they did last week against the Rams where Taylor was fantasy gold at these price points.
He threw for 319 yards and a touchdown while also running six times for 40 yards. Now he’ll get an Eagles’ defense that’s been an absolute sieve of late, giving it up to Kyler Murray and the Cardinals just last week. This is another good spot for Taylor and the Giants.
Tony Pollard FD 7600 DK 6500
Proj Points FD - 17.55 DK - 19.98
Oof, can we really do it again? I think we can do it again. It’s been a disaster season for Tony Pollard who never really got started and just doesn’t look the same following the surgery from last season. Yet the Cowboys keep trotting him out there for the touches. Last week he played 85% of the snaps, carrying the ball 16 times and seeing three targets in the passing game.
The Commanders are a dream matchup in terms of opposing defense, and the Cowboys are -13 road favorites. The big line and Washington’s inability to stop anyone has me tempted to go back to Pollard one last time.
Aaron Jones FD 6800 DK 6300
Proj Points FD - 15.95 DK - 17.69
The Bears have been a better defense of late, but the Packers really need this win to get into the playoffs making for an intriguing matchup all around. The leaned into Aaron Jones last time out, finally giving him the bulk of the carries after another injury-plagued season. He ran the ball 20 times for 120 yards and saw a target in the passing game.
He’s been efficient on the ground throughout his career and, at least for now, looks healthy. The price doesn’t reflect the opportunity and we might see him get the ball even more this Sunday.
Bijan Robinson FD 6900 DK 6600
Proj Points FD - 18.18 DK - 20.42
The Falcons are another team that needs a win this weekend, with the game against the Saints a make-or-break one for both. The winner wins the NFC South (if the Bucs lose), which is about as high stakes as it gets when it comes to playoff leverage. The Falcons leaned on Bojan Robinson last week, playing 75% of the snaps, carrying the ball 15 times while seeing another four targets in the passing game. It was his fourth-highest usage game of the season, though the Falcons did get killed by the Bears.
That being said, I think they go this route again with Bijan, who is clearly one of their best offensive options. It’s a must-win game and we could see him featured even more in the passing game against a Bucs D that funnels offense that way.
Zamir White is still in play if Josh Jacobs sits.
Rachaad White could be a popular play going up against the Panthers in a must-win game.
CeeDee Lamb FD 10000 DK 9300
Proj Points FD - 23.38 DK - 28.07
Stacking Cowboys could be the cash game move we need, and if so, it’s tough to fade CeeDee Lamb in this spot. He’s been among the very best wide receivers in all of football this season, ranking first overall in targets, second in receiving yards, and third in touchdowns. It’s been a phenomenal season from Lamb, putting him in (moderate) contention for Offensive Player of the Year.
Now he’ll face the Commanders who can’t stop anyone, and we should at least see double-digit targets from Lamb. The price is all the way up there, making it tough to spend up all around, but it’s worth it for him in this matchup and game environment.
Justin Jefferson FD 9000 DK 8500
Proj Points FD - 17.97 DK - 21.61
With the Vikings needing to win and going back to Nick Mullens under center, Justin Jefferson is a cash game play once again for the final week of the season. With a thin spread and perfect conditions inside the dome, this game could be a track meet with both teams looking to win.
The quarterback situation for Jefferson isn’t amazing with Nick Mullens under center, but the dude has seen 10 targets each of the last three weeks with 284 yards total over that stretch. He’s still an elite WR1, and the price is even down some.
Drake London FD 6200 DK 5000
Proj Points FD - 14.83 DK - 18.05
Looking to go into the middle tier for wide receivers? Then we might be able to target Drake London in this matchup against the Packers. Green Bay is much worse against the pass than the run this season, ranking 23rd in yards per pass attempt allowed. They play a slower pace, so it’s tougher to get there on volume, but Drake London is coming off a 10-target game in Week 17. Plus, earlier in the season, he went for 8/67/1 against the Packers. It’s a good spot for a guy with the talent and isn’t prohibitively expensive on either site.
Bo Melton makes for an interesting play if Jayden Reed is out. Melton finished with a team-high nine targets last week, totaling six catches for 105 yards and a touchdown.
Johnny Mundt FD 4500 DK 3000
Proj Points FD - 9.09 DK - 11.53
With TJ Hockenson out, Johnny Mundt took over a majority of the tight end snaps (77% overall) and finished with the second-most targets for the Vikings after Justin Jefferson. In all, he put up four catches for 39 yards and a touchdown. At a position that’s tough to fill each week, getting someone this cheap who projects to A: play and B: see more than a handful of targets. Mundt fits both. Even though it was a one-week sample size, considering the context and the nature of this game, we can go back this way again.
Tucker Kraft FD 5300 DK 3700
Proj Points FD - 11.32 DK - 14.02
Tucker Kraft has seen six targets in each of the last three weeks and should have a higher floor once again here against the Lions. He’s averaged about five catches and 55 yards in that stretch with one touchdown total. We can take that kind of production from a tight end in this price range. Plus, the target floor could remain high if Jayden Reed is out again.
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- Dak Prescott: (AP Photo/Michael Ainsworth)