Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 5/5/14

Tired of shedding bankroll? Be sure to sign up for a free 3-day trial to access the MLB system and spreadsheets that help produce our picks. And give a follow on Twitter @dailyfantasysr.

 

Pitchers

Max Scherzer FanDuel 10400 DraftKings 12700 DraftStreet 27186
Not quite at the Jose Fernandez level of "must start in every cash game almost no matter the opponent or price" territory, but close. And while that label is a bit of hyperbole to begin with, there is some truth to the matter that getting a stud pitcher against a weak offense means it's awfully tough to fade him. Scherzer against the Astros is one such occasion. Houston is near the bottom of the league in every meaningful category against righty pitchers. They strike out more than 25% of the time and have a team wRC+ of 85. Scherzer on the other hand has been dominant early season, extending from his terrific 2013 campaign. He's striking out nearly 12 batters per 9, limiting his walks and has an xFIP of 2.40. On one-pitcher sites like FanDuel it's pretty much Scherzer or bust in cash games. On DraftStreet his $27K tag (the highest I can ever remember seeing) is a bit too much to swallow.

Yordano Ventura FanDuel 8400 DraftKings 9400 DraftStreet 17330
A little too wild for my cash game plays, but man does he have some upside today. Ventura has pitched really well this season (remember when he was like 5K?) and even with the price jump still has a quality expectation today. The Padres are awful, awful, awful on offense, ranking dead last in wRC+, OPS, wOBA and really anything else you can think of. They are a pathetically weak hitting bunch and Ventura pitching in San Diego only buoys his cause. He's been striking out more than a batter an inning and while not as good as his 1.50 ERA would suggest, I still think there is upside at these prices.

Nathan Eovaldi FanDuel 6500 DraftKings 9200 DraftStreet 16501
I'm always a little wary when a pitcher's K numbers jump from his career averages, especially a guy like Eovaldi who's been around a little while. That being said, whatever he's doing this season is working. He's got a crazy 7:1 K:BB rate going, is pitching in a great park for limiting runs and faces a Mets team that has left Coors Field and is once again irrelevant. The Mets suck on offense and if weren't for the Padres would be dead last in every major offensive category. Eovaldi is coming at some advantageous prices today and I think you can take advantage.

Jose Quintana FanDuel 5600 DraftKings 8000 DraftStreet 13888
This is only if you are looking for an upside play. The Cubs strike out the most in the league against lefties and one thing Quintana can do is get swings and misses. He's actually carrying a 3.34 xFIP into this game which is completely reasonable.

Michael Bolsinger FanDuel 6500 DraftKings 6200 DraftStreet 9294
This is anothe upside play. His strikeout numbers have been good, his xFIP is under 3.00 and he is about as cheap as it comes for a pitcher. This is a great spot, especially on a site like DraftStreet to get that third pitcher spot at a low cost with some upside.

 

Catchers

John Jaso FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 3400 DraftStreet 5888
I'll be putting more solid evidence later about why Chris Young is a basically a battig practice pitcher in wolf's closing (or however that old fairy tale goes) and that the A's could be set to hit him with the regression hammer today. Jaso is a top catching pick today because he A: takes a ton of walks and B: faces a pitcher that walks people a good deal. Jaso's achilles heal is the strikeout, but good news, Chris Young isn't interested in those. I'm salivating about having Jaso in lineups today as he's priced fantastically. Oh and did I mention his .363 wOBA against righties last season? Icing.

Salvador Perez FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 6914
He's an extreme splits guy to ignore against righties and salivate over when lefties are on the bump. Over his career Perez has a wRC+ of 141 against lefties and an OPS over 900. Those numbers are very, very real. He's struggled out of the gate this season, but the sample size, especially against lefties, is very small. No need to panic. Target him today against Stults.

J.P. Arencibia FanDuel 2200 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 3259
Robinson Chirinos FanDuel 2300 DraftKings 3300 DraftStreet 4465
These guys are on here because it basically taking hard looks at anyone walking into Coors for a given series.

 

First Basemen

Brandon Moss FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 8518
You are going to see a lot of A's on this list. Don't be at all fooled by Chris Young. The regression is coming. He is walking more guys than he strikes out and his xFIP is running nearly three runs behind his ERA. When he "shut down" the Yankees last game it was on a freezing cold/ rainy night in the Bronx with 20 mph winds blowing in from right. Moss should be a top play today and if it weren't for the Rangers traveling to Coors I'd probably have him everywhere.

Prince Fielder FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 7753
Speaking of the Rangers and Coors, guess where Prince is heading? You are going to see a lot of Rangers and A's all over these picks tonight. Fielder has had a quiet start to the year. But that is why God insisted on creating a team in Denver. To boost power numbers for everyone. Though Lyles is an extreme groundball pitcher, he doesn't whiff anyone really. the groundball rate is the only thing dampening my excitement for the Rangers tonight. But Fielder is a great play.

Billy Butler FanDuel 2400 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 5918
He's hit safely in 8 of his last 9 games with a few extra base hits thrown in there for good measure. It doesn't mean he's completely cured, but at least he's not dead. (I'm a salesman huh?) Butler is fine against lefties like Stults, but the real story here is that he's still coming at bargain basement prices, hitting in the middle of the order. If you are looking to punt first base today (which I probably wouldn't) he's your man.

Consider: Freddie Freeman and Juan Francisco

 

Second Basemen

Ian Kinsler FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 8184
I'd much rather take him against lefties, but Jared Cosart is no great shakes, and Kinsler's price isn't through the roof on a day that's a bit light at second. The other guys ahead of him in our system are getting big bumps from matchups or park factors, but they are also guys hitting near the bottoms of their respective lineups. Kinsler hit second in a top offense and this goes a long way in mitigating some of the disadvantageous platoon splits.

Scooter Gennett FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 3300 DraftStreet 5589
We had him as a top second base pick yesterday and he promptly went yard. Putting him here today but not because of yesterday's performance. He is significantly better against righties with a 100 wRC+ against them to start the season. That's average-ish but not relative to position which is lighter hitting across the board. The only thing that has me a little down on Gennett is that Bolsinger has been actually a pretty good pitcher this season (though the ERA doesn't necessarily reflect it). He does strike guys out.

Consider: Eric Sogard

 

Shortstops

Jed Lowrie FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 8034
You know where this one is going. Chris Young is one of the worst pitchers going today and you want to have exposure to guys swinging the bat against him. I'll be stacking A's in a number of different spots and won't be the only one. Lowrie is just the kind of guy Chris Young doesn't want to see. Like Young, Lowrie walks more than he strikes out. For a hitter this is good, a pitcher not so much. The patience is a big reason he's OPS'ing over 800 right now. Guys like Lowrie will really help getting Scherzer into cash game lineups.

Jose Reyes FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 7500
Signs that he's breaking out of the slump (or just getting luckier with Babip) that started the season. Reyes has gotten on base the last couple of games, with doubles in both. It's not much, but it's a start. Kyle Kendrick is the definition of "average" and won't be overpowering many Blue Jays today.

Elvis Andrus FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 6157
If you feel like the Rangers are going to be putting up some runs today then get Andrus into your lineup. Our system has him the top SS on FD with one primary reason being the park factors give him a big boost. He's been running a little bit of terrible in Babip to start the season (70 points below his career average) which would explain some of his numbers looking so dumpy. But entering Coors, I think you can take a shot at him, not because he himself will be putting on a power show, but because innings get extended in that ballpark.

 

Third Basemen

Adrian Beltre FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 6342
Coors Field! Coors Field! Again, Rangers are on the radar today because of the park factors, but I'd be remiss in not mentioning again that Lyles induces a billion ground balls which could limit a little of what we might be expecting from the Ranger lineup today. That being said, it isn't the be all, end all. It means something, but not everything. Beltre has yet to go yard this season through about 70 ABs. He was hurt for a bit, and could still have some lingering effects. Most of his batted ball numbers are in line with his career averages and he hasn't had enough PAs for those numbers to normalize yet. So watch out, good things could be coming.

Carlos Santana FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 5947
Has been near the top of our system just about every day since the beginning of the year. For the first part of the season that was kind of crushing. Now? It's starting to look a little better. He's coming around, especially in the power department with three home runs in his last six games. That's a big sigh of relief and I like him today against Kyle Gibson, who's trash.

Lonnie Chisenhall FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 2800 DraftStreet 4587
Two Indians at the same position? Why not, it's Monday and I like to get crazy at the start of the week (before falling into a lingering depression). Chisenall has been running crazy hot and isn't nearly as good as his 900 OPS would suggest. But our system doesn't account for the hot start. It only sees his projections out. And it likes him facing Kyle Gibson, he of the 1:1 K:BB ratio.

Consider: Alberto Callaspo

 

Outfielders

Coco Crisp FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4800 DraftStreet 9605
He's a bit overpriced on DraftStreet, so I don't think I'd touch him there. But man on DraftKings he's a great deal and on FanDuel he's nearly must start for me. His walk rate is over 15% and though his K's are up a bit, that is mitigated by facing a pitcher in Chris Young who pitches mostly to contact (or just walks guys so as to avoid contact). Crisp is a threat to do just about everything on offense which gives him pretty significant upside on a day in which the A's should score some runs. His OPS is over 800 this season. Crisp is pretty platoon neutral, but a tick better against righties.

Marcell Ozuna FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 7642
Ozuna is a guy with a platoon split so stark you need to buy him on the days he's facing lefties. Over his short career he's put up an 840 OPS against lefties (as compared to a 690 against righties). He faces Jon Niese today in a great spot at a great price. He already has five home runs to start the season and I'll have him on the upside today.

Michael Brantley FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 7243
Not a guy I've targeted too terribly much this season (to my own detriment). He's driven in a bunch of runs to start the year and is in a great spot against Kyle Gibson today. Brantley is much better against righties for his career. And though his OPS isn't huge, he gets special points because he rarely strikes out. Against Gibson that means the ball is getting put in play early and often.

Rangers Outfielders
Alex Rios FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 7161
Mitch Moreland FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 5955
Leonys Martin FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 5293
Can make a case for all three of these guys and it all revolves around them playing in Coors.

Jason Heyward FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 5484
There appears to be something amiss with Shelby Miller and I don't mind targeting a Heyward and Freeman because Miller is getting pounded by lefties to start the season. The Braves in general might be a team to stack in some spots because of Miller's early struggles.

Remember! You can use our Baseball Lineup Construction Tool for free until mid-April. Please check it out and give us feedback!

You can also sign up for our mailing list by using the column in the sidebar (and you'll get a free eBook on setting Daily Fantasy Basketball lineups. The Baseball eBook is on its way). Our mailing list puts the picks in your inbox like a freshly baked pie.