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Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

05/01/2016
Austyn Varney

Daily Fantasy Baseball News and Updates for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/1/16

Welcome to the daily MLB updates and news article. We'll try and update it right up to line-up locks with as much information as comes across our desks. Let's get to it!

Last night's picks can be found here, so you can wrap your mind around what you need to be looking at before lineups lock today.

By the way - we keep our projection system updated with all of the batting lineup changes as they occur throughout the day right up until lineup lock. Every day. If you want access to that system so you can cut out a lot of the research element, click the button below!

What We Know

A ton of weather issues

I will update anytime I hear something new. Make sure to stay tuned on Twitter as well close to lock time.

As of 6:30 AM EST

- SFG @ NYM - This one is not looking too good. The NWS has this sitting at about an 85% chance of rain throughout.

- CIN @ PIT - While looking slightly better than the Mets game, it doesn't look good. If you look at the radar, the entire city of Pittsburgh is covered with rain for the entire day. It is just whether or not the rain in hard enough to cancel baseball.

- CWS @ BAL - Baltimore is a mess. There is no end in sight here as of now. Watch for updates.

- CLE @ PHI - Same as Pittsburgh.

- NYY @ BOS - This one is looking slightly better but is also about 16 hours away. Weather can and will change from now to then.

Lackey and Teheran moved to today

With the Braves @ Cubs game being postponed yesterday, the pitchers will be moved to today. Lackey is a solid cash option although I am not sure I will have much exposure with the other options on the slate.

DFSR 705x90

Tournament Stacks

Colorado Rockies

The Colorado Rockies come into this game on a high after roughing up the Diamondbacks ace Zack Greinke last night. While most people will avoid the Rockies on the road, Chase Field is the second best environment for hitters in the league. Shelby Miller will be taking the mound and is somebody I will be looking to target all season long. Miller had one of the luckiest seasons ever in 2015 finishing with an ERA of 3.02 and an xFIP over 4. Miller is going to crash back down to earth this season and it has already begun with 6 home runs given up in 19 innings. The Rockies are in a prime spot to knock around Miller today and they should go a bit under owned. With Miller holding a career wOBA of .323 against lefties, they are my favorite here. My top 5 are Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story, Gerardo Parra and Nolan Arenado. If you want to be contrarian, fade Story and go with Paulsen.

Miami Marlins

While I didn't expect to have these guys as good play for a while without Dee Gordon, the spot is just too good. The Marlins will be facing off with the right handed Wily Peralta in a great hitters ballpark Miller Park. Peralta has always struggled with the long ball and this Marlins team certainly has some guys with power. I am expecting Dietrich to leadoff with Yelich, Stanton and Bour following. All four of those guys have home run upside in this match up and I would not be surprised to see 3 or 4 home runs off the bats of the Marlins today. However, the Marlins aren't a team you can get crazy with when stacking. You have to go with the 1-5 and hope those are the guys that put up the numbers as I am never comfortable playing the likes of Miguel Rojas and Jeff Mathis.

 

Sneaky Pitcher

Rich HillRich Hill FD 7700 DK 8900
Opponent - HOU (Fister) Park - @OAK
FD - 35.66 DK - 18.45

Rich hill has quietly dominated to start this season with 3 amazing starts in where he put up 57 FanDuel points. Hill will take the mound here against the Astros, a team that can either score 11 runs or get shut completely down. While Hill has not pitched more than 50 innings in any of the last 5 years, the sample size we have is decent and he has dominated both righties and lefties when given the opportunity. With a career hard contact rate of only 27%, his performance appears to be sustainable. If you are looking for a guy that is cheap, going to be under owned and gives you a ton of upside, Rich Hill is your guy.

 

The "Every Lineup" Guys

David PeraltaDavid Peralta FD 3200 DK 3500
Opponent - COL (Bettis) Park - @ARI
FD - 11.45 DK - 9.14

David Peralta has been off to a somewhat slow start to the year, however, his peripheral stats such as hard hit rate and HR/FB rate suggest nothing has changed. This tells me the positive regression is coming and Peralta is about to have a big few weeks. That could certainly start here against a bad righty in Chad Bettis. Bettis has given up a .345 wOBA and 26% line drive rate to lefties over the course of his career. Those numbers are not good against a guy like Peralta who lives off the line drive as evidenced by his 26% line drive rate. I look for Peralta to get a hold of one today and send it for a ride.

Byung-ho ParkByung-ho Park FD 3200 DK 4100
Opponent - DET (Pelfrey) Park - @MIN
FD - 13.26 DK - 10.29

Byung-ho Park has showed some extreme power over the past 10 days with 4 home runs and a few more warning track flyouts. Although we don't have much of a sample size for Park, the sample we do have suggest he will be very good against righties with a .378 wOBA and .607 SLG. Mike Pelfrey is a pitcher I love to target as he is very good at giving up the long ball. These Twins bats are in a great spot here against a homer prone pitcher in Pelfrey. While Park is a guy who is very reliant on power, I think that power is in such a good spot that I don't mind him in both cash games and tournaments.

One other note: There are big differences between DraftKings and FanDuel pricing so the optimal lineups are looking quite different.

These are players that show up in each of the top 10 lineups as produced by our lineup optimizer. This doesn't necessarily mean that they're "safe," it just means that their projected weighted-mean point total is a solid building block for a great lineup foundation today.

Good luck out there today! If you want access to all of our numbers, get started with a free trial below of our lineup optimizer, on us!

7 Visitor Comments

  1. I never thought that I would say this, but stacking Twins looks like an option today. Doug Pelfrey should be ashamed for making me consider this.

    • Yes, Mike Pelfrey is really a horrible pitcher. However, you shouldn’t feel bad. This Twins team has a ton of power and will explode a few times this year

  2. Pirates against a guy making his MLB debut?

      • Think there’s enough out there to avoid weather altogether

  3. Thinking of just punting C and go with federowicz to fit Kershaw and others I like

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