Daily Fantasy MMA Picks for UFC Fight Night 96 - 10/1/16

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The DFS MMA world changed drastically this week. Some people thought it could be the end of MMA on DraftKings after a long delay before posting contests for UFC Fight Night 96. Instead we got an updated scoring model, the addition of a sixth roster spot, and a new live final for UFC 205 at Madison Square Garden. YES! YES! YES! Sorry, I’m just an Isles fan gearing up for hockey season. Anyway, check the link below for the recent changes.

Updating Scoring Model

It will be interesting to see how the new scoring model plays out as the point system now clearly puts grapplers and wrestlers more in play. I won’t be over correcting too early as there is clearly still value in looking for finishes. However, there is now more to be said for finding winners in cash games (main event stacks still in play) and if you’re stuck between two fighters, you might actually lean towards the grappler.

Get it? Good. Let’s dig in to UFC Fight Night 96, the guinea pig for the new world of DFS MMA.

Note – I’ll be checking the comments section right until lineup lockup, so let’s get the conversation going. I mean, what’s better than talking daily fantasy?

VEGAS FAVORITE ($8,500+)

Luis Henrique da Silva ($9,200)

Vegas Line: -125
Finish Prop: +212
Career Record: 11-0
UFC Record: 1-0
Record In Last 5: 5-0
Strikes Landed Per Minute:  8.82
Finishes: 11 KO / 8 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: None
Last Time Out: W, 2^st Round TKO – Jonathan Wilson

GPP Only Disclaimer. There are definitely safer plays in this price range but I love the upside of Luis Henrique da Silva. First, he is a destroyer. 11 career wins, all by knockout, including an absolutely crazy brawl to win his UFC debut against Jonathan Wilson. He landed 8.82 significant strikes per minute in that fight and from everything I’ve seen of da Silva, he is made of pure aggression…and possibly nightmares. With only one UFC fight it’s important to tread lightly in cash games as da Silva is only a -125 favorite despite having the second highest salary on the card. His opponent, Joachim Christensen, could have the advantage if the fight goes to the ground, but I’m not convinced he can get it there without the referee standing over him.

Prediction: da Silva – 1st Round KO

MID-RANGE TARGET ($7,600-$8,400)

Tamdan McCrory ($8,200)

Vegas Line: -230
Finish Prop: -118
Career Record: 14-4
UFC Record: 6-4
Record In Last 5: 3-2
Strikes Landed Per Minute:  2.12
Finishes: 7 KO / 6 Sub / 8 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: 1 KO / 1 Sub
Last Time Out: L 1^st Round KO – Krzysztof Jotko

McCrory burned me last time out, but I’m going back to the well…and that’s because it’s just about time to put Nate Marquardt into Bigfoot Silva territory. I just don’t think he has anything left. Marquardt has 52 pro fights under his belt but he’s 2-6 in his last eight bouts and was finished in four of them. I’m a little cautious because those six losses are to big names and he did stop C.B. Dollaway and James Te Huna in that stretch but it’s not enough to scare me off McCrory. “The Barn Cat”, besides having an awful nickname, has stoppages for his last four UFC wins and the second highest inside the distance prop on the card at -118. This is your last chance with me McCrory (unless you somehow find yourself in the Octagon with Eric Spicely for some reason)…don’t blow it.

Prediction: McCrory – 3^rd Round Submission (Rear Naked Choke)

 

VALUE PLAY ($7,500 & Under)

Shamil Abdurakhimov ($7,400)

Vegas Line: -125
Finish Prop: +187
Career Record: 16-3
UFC Record: 1-1
Record In Last 5: 4-1
Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.56
Finishes: 7 KO / 4 Sub / 9 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: 1 KO / 1 Sub
Last Time Out: W, Unanimous Decision – Anthony Hamilton

Despite the new scoring system and roster changes, DraftKings still gives us at least one fighter with lots of implied value. Shamil Abdurakhimov, whose name is just terrible to type, will cost you just $7,400 as a -125 favorite against Walt Harris. The price tag alone puts him in play in all formats as heavyweights have a huge ceiling and this one comes at a discount. I will have exposure to Walt Harris and strongly consider fading Abdurakhimov in tournaments because I expect him to be one of the highest owned fighters on the slate. It’s also worth noting that Harris is a +105 underdog but he has the best finish prop at +136 (fourth highest on the card) so the floor for Abdurakhimov is definitely concerning. All that said, the price tag and odds make it too enticing to not have a healthy share of Abdurakhimov. The problem is you may be taking slightly above the standard risk that comes with heavyweights. Long story short, if you need a low-end fighter, Abdurakhimov is your guy…and as a freebie, Ketlen Vieira could be your girl.

Prediction: Abdurakhimov – Unanimous Decision

Want to get full statistical research and Shaun's top cash and GPP plays as well as fades and contrarian picks? Shaun is selling all of that info in a cheat sheet for only $5. Fill out the form below or click here to purchase using PayPal this is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership.