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Daily Fantasy NFL Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Conference Championship Sunday 1/28/24
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Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson FD 8800 DK 7700
Opponent KC
Proj Points FD - 26.43 DK - 26.43
Lamar Jackson showed last week that his particular fantasy upside translated just fine (again) to a playoff atmosphere. He completed 73% of his passes for 152 yards and two touchdowns, which doesn’t look like much. But then you add in the 100 yards and two touchdowns on the ground, and now you are really cooking.
Things will be a bit tougher against a Chiefs defense that’s much better than Houston’s. But overall, this is the spot to pay up and roster Jackson on a shorter slate. His floor is just so much higher than any other quarterback going, and it isn’t like the price is completely out of whack, even with the lack of overall roster options.
We typically don’t just roll one quarterback here, but again, Lamar Jackson is so far above the rest of the group that I’m hesitant to tout anyone else for cash games. Brock Purdy, considering the matchup, would be the guy. But he looked shaky last week and there’s a chance the 49ers are playing without Deebo Samuel.
Running Back
Christian McCaffrey FD 11000 DK 9000
Opponent DET
Proj Points FD - 28.33 DK - 30.62
Regarding spend-up options, you have to start cash games with Lamar Jackson + Christian McCaffrey and do business with whatever is left. These two are so far ahead of the field in terms of projection for a short slate that it’s almost laughable.
With Deebo Samuel banged up early in the Divisional Round, CMC was everything for the 49ers, racking up 17 carries, 98 yards, and two touchdowns on the ground while also leading the team in targets for a 7/30 line through the air.
The gap between him and the RB2 (on the fantasy slate) here is the same as the gap between the RB2 and someone who doesn’t play. He will be the highest-owned player for a reason. Fade at your own risk.
Jahmyr Gibbs FD 7000 DK 6400
Opponent SF
Proj Points FD - 15.56 DK - 17.13
Choosing between the 49ers running backs, David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs can be tough on a game-by-game basis because of how these two are used. Namely, they split duties and sometimes can end up meeting in the fantasy middle. I’m going with the idea here that the Lions are playing from behind in this game, and Gibbs sees more opportunity in the passing game because of it.
He had eight games of five or more targets on the season and did see a 10-target game against the Ravens when the Lions were down real bad. On DraftKings, let’s go for the full PPR here and hope that San Fran gets up early in this one.
Wide Receiver
Brandon Aiyuk FD 7800 DK 6900
Opponent DET
Proj Points FD - 10.77 DK - 13.5
Jauan Jennings FD 5300 DK 4600
Opponent DET
Proj Points FD - 8.92 DK - 10.8
Deebo Samuel was hurt early in the game against the Packers, and he’s looking very shaky to play this week. Even if Deebo could play, it doesn’t seem like he will be 100% healthy no matter what. With Samuel out of the mix, Aiyuk and Jennings each saw six targets, combining for 93 yards through the air.
Overwhelming numbers? Of course not. But there’s reason to get on them in cash games this week. There would undoubtedly be more time spent scheming them into a matchup against the Lions, especially if they were figuring Deebo to be out of this game. Aiyuk isn’t necessarily cheap, but Jennings helps as salary filler on both sites.
That’s an important consideration on such a small slate.
Zay Flowers FD 6400 DK 5800
Opponent KC
Proj Points FD - 11.21 DK - 13.74
With a small slate that doesn’t have a ton of standout wide receivers, we will look into the middle(ish) tier for some value and hope to shoot for the upside. That’s exactly what we get with Zay Flowers. He had an underwhelming game against the Texans, with only five targets, but the Ravens only threw the ball 22 times, and that equals a 23% target share for the rookie.
If the game turns into a shootout, then we already know he has double-digit target upside, seeing those numbers in two of the final four weeks of the season. I really like the price on both sites, considering the smaller slate.
Tight End
George Kittle FD 6600 DK 5300
Opponent DET
Proj Points FD - 15.06 DK - 18.04
It would seem like Deebo Samuel is an underdog to play this game, and even if he plays he won’t be 100%. That should open up things in the passing game for George Kittle. After Deebo went down in the last game (after just seven snaps), Kittle ended up second on the team in targets after the aforementioned CMC’s 12.
He finished with four catches for 81 yards and a touchdown. The Lions have let it up to opponents passing games this season and the 49ers are set to take advantage.
Sam LaPorta FD 6500 DK 5400
Opponent SF
Proj Points FD - 10.28 DK - 13.03
Concerns about Sam Laporta’s health were put aside in the game against the Buccaneers, two weeks after the scary knee hit he took in the final week of the season. He saw 11 targets in the win over Tampa Bay, going for nine catches and 65 yards. Because Mark Andrews is returning for the Ravens, the tight end player pool gets a little thinner. LaPorta could see heavy usage in this game again.
