Daily fantasy football picks for Week 5 - DraftKings

DFSR is excited to bring you Bryce McVay. Dude knows his stuff and he'll be bringing you picks specifically for DraftKings with an emphasis on that site's scoring system and value. We are pumped to have a great new voice in the DFS landscape.

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Want picks for FanDuel, Draftster, and Draftday as well? Check em out.Let me paint you a picture; see if it sounds familiar…It’s Saturday morning, one day prior to the Sunday Week 5 match ups. You’ve been looking forward to this week all year because of the highly publicized DraftKings Millionaire Maker Tournament where someone will be winning a life changing sum of money from just a small investment of $27.

All week you have been preparing for Sunday. Your brain has been vociferous; weekday work meetings resemble sounds of Charlie Brown characters. 50% of your time spent reading every weekly picks article you can get your eyes on, while the other half, daydreaming about the overwhelming sensation of winning one million dollars in a two-day span. Drooling over the thoughts of being student-loan debt free, driving around in a new Tesla Model S, as your Twitter followers increase from 20 to 2,000 overnight because everyone wants a piece of the new fantasy football savant.

By this time, you’ve read so many articles that the list of players you aren’t considering is smaller than the ones you are. Information overload. It’s only 24 hours before kickoff and you begin to panic. Should I pay for a QB or save my cap space for the RB position? Is “stacking” truly the best strategy?? What’s the weather going to be in Washington on Monday Night Football??? AHHHHHHH!!

Calm down and breathe….This world at times can be very noisy, but hidden in all the noise is the answer; or as Nate Silver refers to it, the signal. Yes Nate, a free plug is coming. I have been reading The Signal and the Noise, a well-written, non-fiction book by Nate Silver. I highly suggest putting this book on your nightstand.

Using the data of the past, to predict the results of the future, all while being stuck in the realm of the present. This is what all us DF-ers strive for. We analyze home/road splits, Vegas point spreads and over/unders, anything the internet has to offer. All in hopes of constructing the perfect lineup. In a world of uncertainties, a single fact remains…Someone is going to win. Whether its divine intervention, or divine predictive modeling skills, on the dawn of Tuesday Morning the true winner will reveal him or herself.

As you read my picks below, keep in mind that the game of fantasy football will never be solved. The qualitative aspects of the sport far outweigh the quantitative. This isn’t baseball. This is football. “Any given Sunday” is the cliché meaning any given Sunday a new star can emerge by scoring two touchdowns and vaulting his name to the top of your leagues transaction trends “add” list. It’s what makes daily fantasy football so entertaining; the “unknown variable X” as I like to call it.

So I am here to tell you my predictions are educated, albeit inept. Analysis can only get you so far, sometimes you just have to sit back, relax, and like I said earlier…breathe. Therein lies the answer. The true signal is not to choose Calvin Johnson or Antonio Brown, but to choose happiness. Be forever grateful as you strive for success. Win or lose, we are all living a fantasy and damn it, it’s beautiful.

 

Week 5 Picks: “A little bit of inspiration…”

 

Quarterback Position

Drew Brees DK $8,900
Ok Drew. You did it again. You made my list and I am hoping this week, unlike the others, I’m not left saying “oops” (My first Britney Spears reference of the year, bingo!). The question remains; has the Saints offense truly regressed this year and are not actually the powerhouse we are all so used to seeing? Honestly, I’m still not sure but this week it won’t matter. They are back in New Orleans after an embarrassing loss in Jerry World which put them at 1-3. They need a win and they will get a win against the piñata of the league, the Tampa Bay Bucs. Plenty of stats back this statement up, but here’s one I like; Drew Brees hasn’t thrown for less than 300 yards against the Bucs since 2011. We all know what 300+ yards means in the DK world and hell, he may throw a few touchdowns as well. I’ve been playing him all year at this price so why in the world would I stop now when he may have the best match up of the year. I also feel that he shouldn’t really be overplayed this week as a lot of people are feeling the same pains I am. Whether you’re playing cash or GPP, he is a fine play in all formats.

Ben Roethlisberger DK $7,400
The Jaguars are yielding 344 passing yards per game. That’s not an error. 344. Passing Yards. Per game. Big Ben has been throwing the rock well and it helps that he may have the best WR in the game in Antonio Brown. I would have thought Ben’s price would have been more inflated this week due to the plus match up, but his tag remains very reasonable. Equally important, the Steelers defense has been very porous lately and the Jags offense hopes to receive a shot of adrenaline in the form of Blake Bortles. The Jags will score on this defense meaning the Steelers will be forced to stay full throttle. Like Brees, I don’t mind playing him in either format.

Philip Rivers DK $7,000
Based on salary, he is the 18^th highest priced QB this week. Shut the front door! Most analysts say he is the front runner for the MVP a quarter of the way through the season and he threw for 370+ yards and 3 scores last week. This week he is $700 cheaper than he was last week yet he is still playing at home against a generous New York Jets secondary giving up the third most passing touchdowns to opposing QB’s this year. Let us also not forget that the Chargers haven’t scored a rushing touchdown in a coon’s age and considering the frontline of the Jets, I don’t see Donald Brown or Branden “I like my martinis with” Oliver breaking the zero yard line. The point spread (-7) and the over/under (44) suggest the Chargers will score around 25 points. That should be 3 touchdowns all of which Rivers will have a hand in. I will say, Rivers is more of a value play considering his price tag. I prefer to use him in cash leagues as opposed to GPP formats.

Russell Wilson DK $7,600 / Eli Manning DK $7,500 / Joe Flacco DK $7,000

I’m cool with any of these plays…I’m just too lazy to tell you why. I will add, the QB position is always the most difficult position to forecast. The variance isn’t as extreme across the board so often times one could make a case for about 50% of starting QB’s for any given week.

 

Running Back Position
Marshawn Lynch DK $7,200
This may be the first time in my life that I am recommending Lynch in a full point PPR setting. He’s never been a heavily used back in the passing game, but it does seem that when he does have a catch, it normally equates to a red-zone target and touchdown. The key reason for this recommendation is not because I am absolutely certain he will achieve value, but more so because I think he will be less played than his equally expensive counterparts; Matt Forte, Le’Veon Bell, and Demarco Murray (I like all these guys as well). I think Forte and Murray have higher floors but Lynch on Monday Night Football makes for a great GPP play. Think about it, after crafting a winning team, you sit at 190 points with only Lynch to go. He is one of only a handful that could carry you to the promise land with a three score night. Taste the rainbow and let the good times roll.

Reggie Bush DK $6,200
Sighhh; I hate writing about obvious picks who are benefactors of an injury. Joique Bell (concussion) is unlikely to suit up on Sunday leaving the majority of snaps to Reggie Bush-master. Normally, I would plug him under another recommendation, stating he’s a great play and that you and the rest of the world will be starting him lending a good “fade” opportunity to considering his play percentages. However! His matchup is a tough one with Buffalo which will not be ignored. I am hoping that people recognize the difficult match up while missing the fact that Buffalo has allowed 7 receptions/game to opposing RB’s. We all know Bush excels in this part of the game. I think Bush remains a better value play in cash formats when compared to GPP formats. Nevertheless, Bush is a booming playmaker so I will be playing him across all formats.

Christopher Ivory $3,100 and Khiry Robinson $3,000
Both of these explosive backs saw explosive declines in their salary from week 4 to 5. Honestly, I have no explanations for why this happened. Ivory tallied 84 yards on 17 carries against a stout Lions run defense and Robinson rushed 8 times for 87 yards in a game where Pierre Thomas saw the majority of snaps during comeback mode of the Dallas game. Both RB’s also brought in two receptions. For Khiry’s sake, the Saints should be ahead all game and I have to imagine Robinson will see 10+ carries. I would not recommend him as a GPP play, but he is a safe punt in any cash formats with a very likely chance to get 9 points, all that is needed to achieve the 3.0 value.

Turning to Ivory, it’s clear as day that he is better than Chris Johnson. The carries total show the Jets agree. 13, 12, 10, 6 are CJ’s carries over the past four weeks. You don’t have to be a math major to notice the regression. I think Ivory has a better chance to score than CJ and only needs 9.3 points to achieve value. 2 catches and 70 total yards seems very likely and if the Jets have a rushing touchdown, Ivory has the best chance to get it.

One final caveat on these bottom of the barrel RB’s. This week I suggest using your salary on the more expensive running backs and thus not taking a chance with either of the two punts listed above. I still like the play, but I think the value at WR and TE is too big to ignore so when it comes to punt plays in the 3K range, keep reading and use the receiving threats described below.

 

Wide Receiver Position

Brian Quick DK $5,900
With a name like Quick, what’s not to love? This burner will be my number one played wide receiver, especially in GPP formats. The Eagles have given the most 40+ yard receptions to opposing WRs and I see this game as a shootout considering the defenses. I have enjoyed watching Austin Davis so far this year and he is now fully engrained in the first team offense and had the bye week to break down the Eagles secondary. Quick is definitely the first option in this offense, however, the Rams have a fair amount of weapons. I am not as bullish on using him in a double league considering his rather expensive price tag. I originally thought he was going to be my “sneaky” pick of the week, but I have read a fair amount of columns praising this pick. I still think he will be underplayed when compared to his counterparts.

Antonio Brown DK $8,100
The time has finally come where Antonio Brown is on the same level as the Basking Shark, Calvin Johnson. No need to make a case for this WR1. He is a model of consistency going up against an atrocious Jaguar secondary. The Steelers use Brown in so many different ways that it’s hard to game plan against hi talent. I will be curious if the Jags center in on stopping the rung game of Le’Veon Bell or send double coverage towards Brown. The entire football world has seen what Antonio is capable of so he will be without a doubt the most played WR. If you want to be bold, you can try and fade him this week. I will not be included in this crowd making Brown a favorite in all my leagues.

Kelvin Benjamin DK $4,800
Benjamin’s price inexplicably dropped a G from week 4 to week 5. He is without question the number one target for Cam Newton and the Bears have been a plus match up for WR’s this year yielding 13 reception and 175 yards per game to the position. Crabtree, Kerley, Cobb, and Nelson have all torched them and Benjamin is an elite talent. He is a great double up play as value is achieved through only 14.4 points. I have to say 6 for 85 seems highly likely with a chance a good chance to score. His propensity to score makes him a solid GPP play as well.

The three WR’s featured above were only a small percentage of plays that made it on my short list. If you recall in my Thursday post, I revealed that my WR list is comically large. All of these guys I am considering in one of my many Millionare Maker lineups:

A.J. Green, Ashlon Jeffery, Percy Harvin, Steve Smith Sr., Victor Cruz, Kenaan Allen, Michael Crabtree Jeremy Maclin, Michael Floyd, T.Y. Hilton, Emmanual Sanders, Golden Tate, Torrey Smith, DeAndre Hopkins, Sammy Watkins, Brandin Cooks, Desean Jackson, Allen Hurns, Eddie Royal, Terrence Williams, Rueben Randle, Doug Baldwin, Jordan Matthews, Markus Wheaton.

Injuries and inactives will play a key role when finalizing who I will actually put in my lineup. A quick example; if Vernon Davis is inactive I move Crabtree up a notch considering he should see increased red zone targets. Also, Calvin Johnson’s health status could greatly affect Golden Tate as it did last week.

 

Tight End Position

In my Thursday article, I recommended Clay Harbor as a cheap TE play ideal for double ups and Julius Thomas as the play for GPP’s considering his chance to the be number 1 at his position this week. I am sticking to these picks, but there is still tons of value to discuss.

Larry Donnell DK $5,700
Similar to Martellus Bennett, Larry Donnell continues to put up top tier TE1 numbers. He seems to be a mismatch for any coverage linebacker or safety and the Giants love to feature him in the red zone. His reliable hands have produced 5 or more receptions in every game this year which also shows that Eli is not afraid to use him as a chain mover. The matchup is ideal this week against the Falcons, but I would temper expectations just a bit only because the Falcons defense is so incompetent, there should be holes everywhere. I still believe he has the third highest probability to score this week behind only JT and JG.

Delanie Walker DK $4,300
Delanie proved last week that no matter the quarterback, his athletic prowess gives him the ability to produce on a weekly basis. Even with 80+ yards and a score, his price tag went from 4.9K to 4.3K so he remains a relatively cheap option. Warning, he is dealing with a nagging shoulder injury and was questionable going into week 4, but obviously showed he can play through it. This makes him a guy you must keep tabs on as you never know when Tennessee could make him a game-time scratch. I say he’s a smidgen below Donnell for probability to score, but he, far and away, has the best chance of all TE’s to receive a four game suspension for PED use (The dude looks like the Hulk).

Owen Daniels DK $3,300
As we know, Daniels is filling in for Dennis Pitta who clearly needs Life Alert considering his fragile hips. In all seriousness, his injury sounds like a possible career-ender and I hope the dude recovers nicely and continues to prosper in the NFL. Until that time, the Ravens are counting on the 9^th year veteran to fill in. He scored two TD’s in week 2 and continues to receive red-zone looks. In order to keep up with the high powered offense of the Colts, I expect the Ravens will need to pass early and often and Daniels should see his fair share. Although the matchup is plus for TE’s (Colts giving up the 4^th most points to opposing tight ends), it’s quite the contrary when it comes to WR’s (Colts giving up the 4^th fewest to opposing wide receivers). All signs pointing to production coming from Daniels.

Garrett Graham DK $3,000
After reading all the hoopla around Brian Quick, this TE is now my sneaky play of the week. Coming into the year, many rankings had him as a low-end TE1. However, he started the year on the inactive list and hasn’t done much in his first three games. His snaps have increased each week and he comes into week 5 with a matchup against the Dallas Cowboys, a haven for TE stat lines. Considering his minimum price of 3K I think he is a very safe punt with a small chance to have one or more touchdowns this week. I like him in both formats, but prefer to use him in GPP’s considering his low play percentage.

 

Defense Position

My Thursday selections were the Browns and Giants. I still like these picks and for some reason I really like the Giants this week. They are cheap and should be overlooked by the general population.

Cincinnati Bengals DK $3,800
I cannot wait to watch this AFC tilt. The point spread opened at -3 for the Pats, but now sits at -1 for the Bengals, depending on what site you bet. That is a huge swing, one of which I am sure Vegas loathes. Watching the movement of this line, I began to question the results of this game. Initially, I was all-in on the Bengals. Then, my gut started to sense something “fishy” and that this was turning into a trap game. Now, I’m back on the side of the Bengals. They have had a bye week to prepare for the Patriots and they truly are a super bowl contender. On the flip side, I think the Patriots are finally that bad of a team. Can we not ignore the obvious!? They lost handily to the Dolphins week 1 (Go Fins!). Easily beat the Vikings week 2, but we all saw how bad they were this Thursday night. In week 3, they hardly beat the Raiders in a home game that could have went to overtime if it weren't for a bonehead mistake by Oakland. Finally, on MNF in week 4, they got slaughtered by Kansas City. Other than the Minnesota game, they have not scored more than 20 points in any game. Their offensive line gives Tom Brady no time to react and their receiving corp isn't good enough to create space. I do think their defense is at worst, average, so I expect a low scoring, possession game with the Bengals coming out on top with a minimum of 3 sacks.

Detroit Lions DK $3,800
Both the Lions and the Bengals are the same price and frankly you could flip a coin on which one will do better. Clearly, I am ok with either play. The Lions get to play at home against a Bills team that has turned to journeyman, Kyle Orton. I’ve always liked Orton and apparently so do NFL teams as he is continuously overpaid to be a back-up. The Bills use a run-heavy offense while the Lions have a top three run defense. This should force the Bills into some precarious positions yielding the Lions a few chances at pick sixes.

San Diego Chargers $3,100
The Chargers defense has been quite strong all year, but I am making this selection based on their opponent. I would have to put the Jets in the bottom three of offenses from a play making standpoint ahead of only the Vikings and the Raiders (Vikings already played and the Raiders are on bye). Geno Smith seems like he’ll get one last chance to prove his worth, but unfortunately for him, I think Vick sees the field in week 6. Shoot, he may see the field in the 2^nd quarter of this week 5 game.

 

 

“Stability can be detrimental. If you always remain stable then you will never fall down. If you never fall down then you will never have the chance to get back up. And if you never have a chance to get back up then you will never get a chance to grow. And stand that much taller.” Follow me to freedom @brycemcvay on Twitter and I hope every single one of you can tie for second place in the Millionaire Maker, behind only “BryceMcNice” of course. As always, stay up to date on your injuries and inactives and make sure you aren't too hung over come Sunday morning.