Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftDay and StarStreet 7/20/14
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Zack Wheeler – FD 7200 DK 7700 DD 13500 SS 22900
All about the matchup here. Wheeler faces the lowly Padres who rank by far dead last in the league against everyone, righties included. The Padres are other-wordly bad, made worse by their ballpark and an unhealthy amount of bad luck. The last part will stand to regress a bit but the rest of the Padres’ profile rates out as horrible. Wheeler is a high J/ high walk guy who can struggle to go late in games because his lack of command elevated his pitch count. I’m still buying all over the place on the matchup and his season xFIP 3.50 is more than enough to have him as a top play today.
Tim Lincecum – FD 8100 DK 9000 DD 17550 SS 25600
He isn’t great. It’s important to get that out of the way first. The walks are way too high and his xFIP is right on the borderline of someone I’d want to recommend. For today he is an upside K guy simply because the Marlins strikeout about 24% of the time against righties and Timmy can get some swings and misses. Beware though, he could get shelled.
Gio Gonzalez – FD 9200 DK 10100 DD 17150 SS 26900
He was pushed back a day. This is my writeup from yesterday. Same considerations.
For team that’s righty heavy throughout their lineup, the Brewers actually struggle a bit against lefties. They rank in the bottom third of the league against that hand with a .309 team wOBA and strike out almost 23% of the time. Gio isn’t a sure thing by any means and represents a little more of a GPP play than anything because his control is erratic at times. But he’s been solid this season and definitely has swing and miss stuff when he’s rolling. The walks scare me for sure, but I think he has the best chance of far exceeding his salary today.
Alex Wood – FD 7400 DK 7400 DD 13150 SS 21700
He was also pushed back a day. This is my writeup from yesterday. Same considerations.
He’s a great value today, especially on two pitcher sites where his low salary allows you a modest chance at getting Felix or Price in your lineup if you so choose. Wood has been solid as a starter this season and the Phillies are worse than average against lefties and strike out almost 22% of the time.
Tyler Skaggs – FD 6200 DK 7000 DD 13050 SS 18000
Looking for a cheap option today here’s a place to start. Skaggs pulls the Mariners who are second to last in the league in team wOBA against lefties. Their .285 mark is pretty bad and the 22% strikeout rate doesn’t help them at all. Skaggs is merely okay, but for the prices he’s coming in at makes a pretty viable option especially on two pitcher sites.
Buster Posey – FD 3000 DK 4300 DD 9350 SS 6400
Crushes lefties as we all know and Brad Hand is the kind of guy righty platoon dudes like Posey have a field day off of. Hand stinks. His xFIP is close to five and he has never faced a batter he didn’t want to walk. Posey hasn’t hit lefties as well this year as his career numbers, but getting him at such great prices on the better side of his split at a weak position is too good to pass up.
Yan Gomes – FD 2900 DK 3600 DD 8200 SS 5900
Has continued to work much better on the v. Lefty side of his platoon split and this season his OPS against that hand is in the mid 800’s. I’ve always been a Gomes fan and that his splits have materialized beyond the Babip run he had last season is an encouraging sign. Drew Smyly is the very definition of league average and this is a great spot for Gomes.
Adrian Gonzalez – FD 3100 DK 4300 DD 10000 SS 6600
I assume he’ll hit another home run at some point this season. Right? The power outage is disturbing. But I’ll take his patient approach against righties and his relative success this season with the mid .800’s OPS. It isn’t perfect considering first base is a power position, but I’m not loving the options her today for the money.
Michael Morse – FD 2500 DK 4000 DD 7550 SS 6200
Has been running so bad this season against lefties which is really hurting his overall performance. The Babip is crazy low in that side sitting at .211 which is way below his career averages. Brad Hand is brutal and I like a bunch of Giants today.
Dee Gordon – FD 3400 DK 4400 DD 8400 SS 8100
Dee’s price has dropped across the industry thanks to a relative dry spell in getting on base and getting those legs moving. I’m not concerned and he should be aided by Carlos Martinez’s high walk rate. Martinez can actually strike guys out which is the only thing getting me lukewarm on Dee. Otherwise this is all systems go.
Ben Zobrist – FD 3400 DK 4300 DD 9300 SS 7600
Correia was pushed back to today making this pick the same as yesterday
Liked him yesterday (two days ago) and that worked out pretty damn well didn’t it? He’s in a similarly positive matchup today against Kevin Correia who never saw a strike out he wanted to shoot for. Dude has one of the lowest K rates you’ll see among starting pitchers and an xFIP near five. Could be a nice day to put some Rays in a stack.
Jose Altuve – FD 4500 DK 5100 DD 9650 SS 8600
You’ll have to pay up which seems crazy because this is Jose Altuve we’re talking about, but Altuve is manhandling lefties this season with a .959 OPS and 171 wRC+ on that side of the split. It’s a little Babip-fueled but whatever. He’s always been solid in this platoon. Could be worth the big tag.
Elvis Andrus – FD 2700 DK 3900 DD 7500 SS 5400
As usual shortstop is a veritable abyss of sadness and light-hitting, all glove guys. I’ll take Elvis on the cheap against Mark “I am the Luckiest” Buehrle whose xFIP is a run and a half worse than his ERA. Andrus is better against lefties and this season has been especially fruitful on that side of the split. He is cheap and fast and you’re hoping he gets on base and starts moving.
Jose Reyes – FD 3700 DK 4700 DD 9600 SS 7800
Lefty Jays are what it’s about today. Well they are among what it’s about as there are a lot of bad pitchers going today. Nick Tepesch is one of those guys. He strikes out less than six batters per nine and walks almost four in the same span. The contact rate should be high for Reyes today and the only thing that has him second on the list today is the price.
Jordy Mercer – FD 2900 DK 3000 DD 5600 SS 5000
Getting used to seeing this guy? And I know the Pirates haven’t been crushing the Rockies lefties the way I thought they would. But I’m not a results oriented dude in that sense. I’m willing to go back to the sample size well. This is still a good spot for some righty Buckos.
Matt Dominguez – FD 2200 DK 3500 DD 5900 SS 4100
Doesn’t show up a lot around here but I’m willing to play some Astros against Danks today. Dominguez has been more than serviceable against lefties this season with an OPS close to .800 and a 116 wRC+ in that side of the platoon. I like how Dominguez comes at punt prices against a guy who can’t really generate K’s.
Juan Francisco – FD 2800 DK 3600 DD 7050 SS 5400
Third base is a great place to save some coin today on some cheap upside power. Francisco is one of those guys again as the Rangers throw out another crappy, no-K righty against the Blue Jays. Juan K’s a ton, but that expectation is significantly diminished when Nick Tepesch is in your life.
Consider Adrian Beltre on some power and platoon love but you have to pay out the ass.
Andrew McCutchen – FD 5200 DK 5900 DD 13250 SS 11100
Starling Marte – FD 3400 DK 4200 DD 9500 SS 6800
This always happens with the Rockies. They throw out a bunch of shitty lefties in a row and I end up writing about the opposing team’s righties on advantageous splits. So here we go again. As I said for Mercer, I know the Pirates haven’t lit the world on fire against Colorado, but I don’t want to let that effect my decision making. This is a good spot to use our system in that is mitigates your chances at become results oriented in making lineup decisions. Tyler Matzek is bad and both McCutchen and Marte come in at different price points with the same idea behind them. Marte should be back today and both of these guys complete a Pirates stack.
Jose Bautista – FD 3700 DK 5000 DD 10450 SS 8700
Melky Cabrera – FD 3200 DK 4100 DD 9150 SS 7400
Colby Rasmus – FD 2800 DK 3700 DD 7600 SS 5600
Again, this is pretty much the same as yesterday. Nick Tepesch is a dumpster fire waiting to happen. I don’t even care that Bautista is in a righty-righty matchup. He’s awesome of course and the other two guys are cheaper option fulfilling a great platoon as well as a projected points per dollar. Stack these guys in a great hitter’s park against a soft-tossing righty.
Hunter Pence – FD 3300 DK 4700 DD 9500 SS 7300
Hunter’s running real hot in Babip this season against lefties, but is also getting unlucky in his Hr/FB%. These don’t necessarily even themselves out in regards to his overall performance, but he exists somewhere in between these two outcomes and is significantly better against lefties over the aggregate. Oh, and Brad Hand.
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