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Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

09/23/2014
Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftDay and Draftster 9/23/14

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Pitchers

David Price -

Cole Hamels -

Alex Cobb -

Jorge De La Rosa -

Consider Danny Salazar and Shelby Miller

 

Catchers

Derek Norris - FD 2200 DK 3300 DD 6750 DFSTR 3000
He's playing a little hurt which is never a good sign, but as long as he's in there I think you can play him at punt prices against a weak lefty. Norris has seen a dip in his split over the last month or so, but the OPS is still .871 for the season and if you can get an extreme splits guy for bargain basement prices you go for it because the downside is significantly mitigated by the cost.

Jason Castro - FD 2200 DK 3200 DD 6100 DFSTR 3000
Nick Tepesch is so terrible that I'm willing to play below average players just to have exposure to the guy. Tepesch strikes out less than four batters per nine innings, walks around the same and just generally stinks. Castro strikes out a ton, but that expectation is lessened against a guy like Tepesch. Great ballpark for lefty power and the Astros are an enticing team today.

Miguel Montero - FD 2300 DK 3300 DD 7350 DFSTR 3000
Your third punt option on the day and I don't plan on spending any money at catcher tonight. There are just too many cheap options hitting on the right side of the their splits against weaker pitching.

 

First Basemen

This position is real difficult tonight.
Miguel Cabrera - FD 4900 DK 5500 DD 12000 DFSTR 9300
This is a complete overpay, and with the high priced pitching going tonight I think you'll have a real hard time fitting him into your lineups. But he's a slugger facing on of the worst pitchers going in Scott Carroll. If there is one place to really overpay I think it's first base simply because so many of the options are in tough matchups.

Anthony Rizzo - FD 4000 DK 5200 DD 10500 DFSTR 9200
He might not be in the lineup today, so monitor it leading up to game time, but if he is you can play him safely against Shelby Miller. Miller has been super lucky against lefty bats this season, but he has an xFIP close to five in that platoon. Rizzo on the other hand has tuned up tighties with an .880 OPS and .380 wOBA. Like I said, he might sit as he's been getting more rest days, but if not you can slot him confidently into lineups.

Jon Singleton - FD 2300 DK 3000 DD 6650 DFSTR 3000
Hear me out on this one. Singleton has run something awful in Babip this season against righties with a number under .200. It doesn't tell the whole story of course, but he's spend a season having balls find the opposing glove. Secondly, his biggest issue by a mile is the strike out. Nick Tepesch doesn't do those. He isn't safe, but from a GPP perspective I think it's at least interesting and will be owned by you and me and that might be it.

 

Second Basemen

Robinson Cano - FD 3000 DK 4400 DD 10200 DFSTR 3800
Cano is still coming at some crazy discounts and for cash games I don't see how you get away from the guy on FanDuel and on DraftKings he's more than reasonable. The prices dictate a play as much as anything against Dickey. Cano's been among the best hitters in the majors against righty pitching with a .901 OPS and .383 wOBA. The Rogers Centre really helps boost power and Cano is your cash game play today.

Brian Dozier - FD 3400 DK 4600 DD 9900 DFSTR 9100
I love playing him against lefty pitching where he is a much better bat. His Babip is a little low this season in that platoon, but the 124 wRC+ plays well enough against Andrew Chafin, a dude with a low K rate and not-so-terrific peripherals. Dozier, hitting at the top of the lineup, with the power and speed combo gives him a high floor.

Ben Zobrist - FD 2600 DK 4200 DD 8400 DFSTR 5800
He's another guy coming way too cheap on FanDuel and I think you can take advantage in his matchup against Buchholz. Zobrist is about league average against righty pitching but Clay's been rocked by lefties this season allowing an .800 OPS to that side of the split.

 

Shortstops

Elvis Andrus - FD 2300 DK 3500 DD 7800 DFSTR 4900
I'm slotting him in at shortstop on the super cheap almost every time he gets to play against a mid-range or lower lefty. Andrus has had a terrific year (for a shortstop) against southpaws with a .785 OPS and 119 wRC+. Those numbers, for his bargain basement prices are more than suitable in justifying him in your lineups. He's been getting more time off lately, but having sat out Monday I'm confident he'll be in there today. Won't hit for any power, but the speed plays and like I said, you can go real cheap here and pay for pitching.

Eduardo Escobar - FD 2400 DK 3100 DD 7000 DFSTR 4300
I'm liking the Twins more and more the further I get in this write up. Escobar has quietly been super solid against lefty pitching this season with an .820 OPS. It's over a limited sample, but at shortstop we'll take what we can get. Could go well in a Twins stack if you head that direction, or works in other formats because of the price.

Didi Gregorius - FD 2200 DK 3500 DD 6050 DFSTR 4600
With so many power arms going today you really want to work to avoid anyone with any kind of high upside K potential on the mound. Luckily Kyle Gibson is not one of those guys. He's an extreme ground ball pitcher who strikes out around five batters per nine and has an xFIP in the 4's. Didi's run horrible this year on Babip, keeping his splits against righties down. But for punt prices I think he can do just enough here to not kill your squad. And I'm not paying for SS today at all.

Consider
 

Third Basemen

Josh Donaldson - FD 3900 DK 4500 DD 9850 DFSTR 5900
Faces another lefty and that's pretty much all you need to know for Donaldson unless that lefty is Kershaw or Sale or someone of that ilk. Wade leBlanc isn't that kind of guy. Donaldson pulverizes lefties on the season and even with a little run bad has an OPS over 1K in that split.

Kyle Seager - FD 2900 DK 4000 DD 8600 DFSTR 4100
The price has really come down over the short term and I think this makes a perfect time to buy somewhat heavily on the guy. R.A. Dickey has run real hot against lefties this season, but actually has a 4.46 xFIP on that side of the split. Seager meanwhile has a 149 wRC+ and .381 wOBA against righties this season. The ballpark favors Seager for power and I love pairing he and Cano in a number of spots.

Matt Carpenter - FD 2900 DK 4100 DD 9000 DFSTR 5400
I'm not a big believer in Kyle Hendricks' ERA this season and I like playing Carpenter at the top of the Cardinal lineup against him today. Carpenter walks as much as he strikes out against righties and has run real, real bad in his Hr/FB% this season, keeping down his OPS considerably. He's coming at nice prices across the industry and though I haven't bought him much this season, it's never too late.

Consider Adrian Beltre

 

Outfielders

Dexter Fowler - FD 2900 DK 4300 DD 8750 DFSTR 3400
Robbie Grossman - FD 2700 DK 3800 DD 7600 DFSTR 4600
Chris Carter - FD 3500 DK 4400 DD 8000 DFSTR
I found OF real tough in terms of value today. This is partly because so many good arms are on the mound against so many of the high end OF offense. But if you are looking for a stack or two, these guys fit the bill. Nick Tepesch is garbage's garbage and each of these guys has been average or above against righty pitching this season. They bring different things to the table, but the big story here is how little their strikeout expectation is against Tepesch. Carter is esepcially enticing because the whiff is his biggest weakness. Taking it out of the equation to a big degree means he could really put on a show.

Brett Gardner - FD 2800 DK 4100 DD 7550 DFSTR 3300
His price has really dropped but playing against Ubaldo Jimenez in Yankee Stadium has its distinct advantages. Ubaldo has a 5.30 xFIP against lefties this season and that's bad news in this stadium. Gardner has a 119 wRC+ against righties this season and his price is pretty great today.

Torii Hunter - FD 3000 DK 4400 DD 8600 DFSTR 10000
J.D. Martinez - FD 4000 DK 4900 DD 9750 DFSTR 11500
Not loving either of these plays really, but man is OF tough. Martinez has been about as lucky as one can get in his splits against righties this season with a Babip over .400. But Scott Carroll is in the Nick Tepesch mold of pitcher. The kind of guy who never saw a strikeout he wanted to have.

Andrew McCutchen - FD 3800 DK 5000 DD 11050 DFSTR 4100
I'd consider it against Alex Wood simply because McCutchen has such great historical splits against lefties.

Consider Jon Jay
 

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4 Visitor Comments

  1. Just noticed that Nick Tepesch is not scheduled to start for the Rangers. Nick Martinez is now scheduled to pitch.

  2. I used your advice last night and I won the Monday MLB squeeze, I beat out 14077 other users. I won $3,000! I stumbled upon your site a few months ago and it’s payed dividends for me. I appreciate all the hard work and time you put into it. Best believe I will be back!

    Chris from Detroit

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