Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Friday 11/1/14

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Point Guard

Ty Lawson - FD 7600 DK 6800
I kind of love that he was super bad the first game. In fact, we even got a tweet saying something akin to “Never again Ty Lawson!” And I get it. If you paid up the first night (which I did in some GPPs) he burnt you bad. But he remains one of the better point guards in the league and on the right night can be an assist machine. OKC is decimated right now. They have no one. He’ll be guarded by Sebastian Telfair. So, there you go. I’m all over Lawson for value tonight and think he piles on some assists while also getting to the rim.

Stephen Curry - FD 9800 DK 10200
You’ll need to pay up in a big way, but on larger slates in the NBA that becomes an easier proposition considering the number of punts you’ll typically get on a larger slate. The Lakers really don’t have an answer defensively for him (few teams do) considering Lin with will be “guarding” the guy for the better part of the game (I presume). Curry, from a raw points perspective, is the top guy in our system. If I can save enough elsewhere (and there are options even at PG to do so) then I like his ultimate upside against a bad team.

Sebastian Telfair - FD 5300 DK 4600
A crazy value on DK considering the new role. He will be playing major minutes out of the one and be in line to crush value on both sites. Will most likely be a popular play and with good reason.

Donald Sloan - FD 4700
The price just hasn’t moved for a guy getting the lionshare of the minutes at the point for Indiana. The Pacers just don’t really have a ton of guys who can like, dribble. Or really do anything with the basketball. This is a price thing. His price has corrected some on DK, but not on FD. Play him with full confidence at this price. He won’t be this cheap next time around. And I have now written more about Donald Sloan than I thought ever possible. Congrats NBA DFS.

Elfrid Payton - DK 4000
Was awful the other night agains the Wiz, turning the ball over on the regular and just basically having that rookie kind of night we’ll have to take our lumps with. It’s fine. Because what it’s done is decrease his price on DK into the punt range. His minutes fell off last game, but I think it was specific to getting torched by Wall, getting in some foul trouble and just struggling in general. The Magic are going to give him his minutes and a starting PG at 4K here is a huge bargain.

If you think the minutes bump is a real, long term for thing then I would strongly consider DJ Augustin coming off the bench for the Pistons.

 

Shooting Guard

Dwyane Wade - FD 7900 DK 7200
The Sixers remain an awful team. This is not in dispute. They field a group of young (someday good) players and placeholders. They play at a faster pace and aren’t particularly interested in defense. This all is to say that if Wade is going to play more than thirty minutes he is completely in play at the two tonight. Shooting guard always seems tough position to fill on crazy value. But I think Wade will be a popular play tonight as long as he’s going. The opponent is choice and Miami sans LBJ needs its scorers. The price is right.

Kyle Korver - FD 4600
Klay Thompson - FD 6500
These two guys are coming at real nice prices on FanDuel tonight. Korver is a guy that won me some money opening night at a great value play. Klay gets a little Lakers’ bump.

Avery Bradley - DK 4400
Eric Gordon - DK 5000
Neither are featured primarily in the offense, but at these prices they really don’t need to be. They just need to get some looks and knock down some threes for the DK bonus. Very risky for sure, but both can pay off big here.

 

Small Forward

Luol Deng - FD 7300 DK 5800
Going to be hard to not recommend all of the Heat against the Sixers tonight. But honestly, the good thing about them in some respects is that they have fewer offensive options, meaning we don’t overload the lineups by recommending the three guys who stand to see the most of the offense (Bosh below). Deng gets the minutes for sure, playing more than thirty opening night. How he ultimately fits with the Heats remains in question, but I don’t mind taking a flyer on the guy tonight considering the opponent.

Perry Jones - FD 5800 DK 5300
The price has climbed a bit considering his new role as a one of the few guys on OKC who can score. I don't love the value mostly because the Thunder are going to really struggle now. But there is upside at these prices for sure.

Khris Middleton - FD 5200 DK 4300
Jabari Parker - FD 6300 DK 5300
They’ll never be sure things. But few small forwards are sure things outside of guys named Lebron, or Durant (when around). And with Larry Drew gone we are hoping for some sort of consistency in the Bucks’ rotation. Here’s to hoping Middleton and Parker stick in Jason Kidd’s plans and continues playing the three and four. At these prices I think both are actually pretty safe if we can assume they won’t have too many minutes hijacked off the bench. The Bucks seem to have a bunch of overlapping talent so hold your breath some. But the talent is there if they are starting and see the minutes.

Consider Draymond Green if David Lee is out again and unbelievably Harrison Barnes and Andre Iguodala against the Lakers though the minutes are an issue. That’s a lot of Warriors for one position.

 

Power Forward

Derrick Favors - FD 6600 DK 7300
The only thing I ever really worried about Favors was the minutes. Last season he always seemed to get pulled from games early (usually because Jazz were getting bent over) and never reached full value because of it. But this season may be a different story. After only 27 minutes in the first game he played 35 against the Mavs. If the Jazz can keep this one close at home against the Suns who were below average defending the low post last season and bring back much of the same squad. He’s a double-double waiting to happen with enough minutes.

Nene Hilario - FD 6300 DK 5700
If the Bucks are going to start Khris Middleton at the four then opposing PFs are going to be in pretty advantageous spots. Nene makes a super safe play I think considering his prices. He contributes enough across the stat line to keep his floor pretty high and I like him in cash games tonight because the PF position is tough. I’m happy getting a guy like him and Favors in at mid-tier prices and just taking some safety (hopefully) to the bank.

Jared Sullinger - FD 6500 DK 6300
Had a disappointing opening night considering the hype coming out of the preseason. And I don’t think he’s an insane value heading into tonight, but PF is tough even in this big slate of games. He kind of falls into the same category as the two guys above because he won’t break the bank, but can pitch in with a double-double on the right night.

Nerlens Noel - FD 6000 DK 6500
He’s untested, young and a relative unknown in terms of future production. But here’s something somewhat definitive: the minutes. In the first two games Noel has played thirty or more minutes. And in NBA DFS that means a lot. It’s a big part of the picture. And he’s been productive in that run. Miami doesn’t have a ton of size down low and I can imagine a scenario in which Noel is able to come close to a double-double. That’s not insane value, but as he gets more comfortable playing in the league let’s remember this was a guy who only dropped in the draft because of injury concern. He’s playing now.

Obviously consider Anthony Davis but he's getting pricey because he's so awesome.

 

Center

Chris Bosh - FD 8900 DK 8700
Ok so this is going to be interesting and very much depends on what you believe about Bosh and his first game for the Heat sans-Lebron. If you believe he becomes the definitive scorer and primary rebounder for this squad and a guy who the offense will run through, then these prices are low. Which is nuts because these prices are high. But there are few centers (labeled as such for DFS at least) in the league who have the scoring potential of Bosh on any given night. That alone keeps his floor so high. Our system doesn’t love him for value tonight, but I think I can buck it a little because it hasn’t realized what Bosh can ultimately be without LBJ. I think it’s real.

Andrew Bogut - FD 5600 DK 5000
Feels so, so safe considering the opponent and the price. Bogut is coming very cheap and gets to body up against Jordan Hill down low. Not going to crush it in any one category, but with the opponent I think he is a fine value in cash games.

Consider Andre Drummond on upside if you think he can stay out of foul trouble