Daily Fantasy Football Picks for Week 11 - FanDuel, DraftKings, Draftday, and Draftster

Whew. A very weird and unexpected week. Roethlisberger disappears, Lynch reappears, and Aaron Rodgers puts up a touchdown worth of touchdowns. Did I have him enough? You bet I didn't. Still bitter. On to the picks.

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Quarterbacks

Andrew Luck - FD 10200 DK 10000 DD 18100 DFSTR 9000
We gave you Aaron Rodgers as the cash game play of the week, and he worked out for both GPPs and cash games. This week? It's Andrew Luck's role. New England's allowed a roughly league average number of passing yards per game, but keep in mind that a lot of that came when Brady was sucking for some reason earlier this season and the Pats were trailing. Now that the offense is firing on all cylinders, Luck and company should have to put some balls in the air to keep up. The Colts' offense has migrated away from the run and into the short pass as well, so this is a play that seems as safe as any.

Matthew Stafford - FD 8600 DK 7400 DD 13250 DFSTR 8100
It's an interesting time to be a Matthew Stafford owner. He had a rather forgettable week against Miami, but here's the thing - Miami is the 2nd toughest team to pass against on a per game basis. With Calvin looking correct and Tate not missing a beat last week, this Lions offense is poised for a monster break out against a Cardinals defense that has allowed the third most passing yards in the league this year.

Drew Brees - FD 9300 DK 8300 DD 15100 DFSTR 8800
Brees is a lot like Stafford, to me. He's had a rougher go of it than usual without all his weapons, but he just got a game changing weapon back. He managed almost 300 yards and 3 touch downs against the 49ers 5th ranked pass defense, and now draws a Cincinnati defense that has descended from the top team in football outsiders' DVOA after week 3 to the 10th worst team against the pass in all of football. They got steamrolled by the Browns. Heading into the Saints' home turf? Could get ugly.

Philip Rivers - FD 8500 DK 6800 DD 13300 DFSTR 7200
A nice opportunity to buy low on a guy coming off of an insanely tough match-up. With the San Diego offense sort of reeling, and 2 weeks to recover, it's pretty much impossible for me to imagine them not wanting to put up numbers against Oakland in a statement game. As I noted when I picked Peyton Manning in my week 10 picks, Oakland is not actually GOOD against the pass. They've just allowed few passing yards because they're usually getting blown out. Rivers' price will climb by ~$500 on FanDuel after this week, as he'll keep the gas going to get his offense's confidence right.

The parole hearing pick
Colin Kaepernick - FD 7400 DK 6400 DD 12700 DFSTR 7200
Okay, I promise - this is the very last time I'll recommend Kaepernick if he doesn't do something this week. And obviously you don't need to play him unless you want to catch lightning in a bottle. But the price is truly great here, and the Giants just allowed Russell Wilson 100+ rushing yards and a touch down. Kaep and Wilson have tracked similarly in terms of what they've done against various teams, and there's a chance for a break out here.

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Want to take us on the go? Check out the week 11 podcast:

 

Running Backs

Mark Ingram - FD 8000 DK 6200 DD 11800 DFSTR 6300
What needs to be said about Ingram? With Thomas and Robinson out, Ingram has touched the ball an absurd amount of times, including 30 touches again last week. Against a very solid 49ers D, he still managed 15 fantasy points. Even with the injury concerns, he's had 24 touches in the red zone this year, giving him incredible upside. Ingram should be a staple of every single cash game lineup and most GPPs against the league's 2nd worst rushing defense.

Le'Veon Bell - FD 8600 DK 7200 DD 13650 DFSTR Our projection system tends to pick out guys who are seeing an increased opportunity to what people were expecting, but Bell is the rare guy who has an increased opportunity and has done more with it. His 4.6 yards per carry is up from 3.5 last year, and his 29 red zone touches are nothing to sneeze at. Even with those touches, he has just 2 red zone touch downs this year - a number destined to correct itself. Don't be scared off by a couple of tough weeks against great run defenses - Bell will draw Tennessee's 4th worst squad this week.

Jeremy Hill - FD 6500 DK 4500 DD 8400 DFSTR 5100
Oy. Jeremy Hill reminds us last week that sometimes we need to expect the unexpected. And this pick obviously only holds up if Bernard is shelved. But hey - football is WEIRD sometimes. While the Saints haven't allowed many rushing yards this season, they're basically league average in terms of yards per carry. One also has to think that Andy Dalton's historically terrible performance will dissuade the coaches from benching Hill for a quarter again. It obviously carries some risk of another blow-out, but given Hill's clear role as the goal line back, there's a lot to love about the upside here as well.

Arian Foster - FD 9200 DK 8500 DD 15600 DFSTR 9000
I'm normally super-hesitant to recommend a running back returning from a soft-tissue injury, but given Foster's confidence around his return, here I am. The Texans announced that Ryan Mallett will be their starting QB this week, and that tells me that they are planning to let him manage the game and get Foster back into his role of being a ball hog. Even after holding Jeremy Hill to 44 yards on the ground, the Browns have given up the 5th most rushing yards per game this season, and something tells me the Texans won't make the same mistake that the Bengals did. Monitor this closely - if he can't play, Alfred Blue is a must.

Alfred Morris - FD 7300 DK 5400 DD 8750 DFSTR
If you've listened to our podcast at all, you'll know that Doug has shamed me into playing Alfred Morris in each of his last two games. And in each of them, I've been more than a little bit delighted at what he's delivered. This essentially comes down to a price and opportunity thing. It's clear that Morris will get ~20 touches a game, especially as they ease RG III back into the offense. It's clear that he's the goal line back (he has 24 red zone touches - DeSean Jackson is 2nd with 8). The Bucs are in the bottom half of the league against the run, and generally suck. I think we're done here.

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Wide Receivers

Calvin Johnson - FD 9000 DK 8500 DD 14050 DFSTR 9000
Kudos to Doug, who poo-pooed my concerns about Calvin returning from injury in our week 10 podcast. I have to admit, I even played him in a few spots after he told the NFL Network that fantasy players should play him. God, I love this guy. Well, we all know what happened. 7 receptions on 15 targets for a buck thirteen and a touch. And that was against Miami's 2nd best pass defense. This week against Arizona? Oh, boy.

Kelvin Benjamin - FD 6600 DK 4900 DD 10750 DFSTR 6600I have to admit laughing hysterically as Benjamin pulled down 2 garbage time touch downs at the end of that Monday Night game. Neighbors were probably wondering why I was yelling 'WHY WEREN'T YOU DOING THIS ALL NIGHT!?' as Newton was throwing to every Joe, Jason, and Fozzy in an attempt to avoid him. One has to think that this alerted Newton and the Panthers to the fact that they actually do have a good receiver on their team. After they watch the film, I think they decide that the rookie needs 10-12 looks against the Falcons' 24th ranked pass defense.

Jordan Matthews - FD 5500 DK 4500 DD 7400 DFSTR 4400
I was going to save him for the sleepers article, but he's simply too relevant. With 24 targets in the last 3 weeks (and, most importantly, 9 in the game where Sanchez started), it's clear that the Eagles are content to use Matthews' slot game as a compliment to finding Maclin downfield. With McCoy struggling (understatement alert), the Eagles may even take a greater comfort in Matthews ability going forward. The price is kind of silly, and while rookie receivers can always disappear, the smart money has Matthews seeing a lot of balls thrown his way as the birds try to keep up with the Packers.

Julio Jones - FD 8200 DK 7000 DD 11650 DFSTR 8100
Man - watching Matt Ryan miss Julio wide open in the end zone wasn't a welcome site. Even with that disaster, Jones still provided solid value in a week where his price was exceedingly reasonable. Well, his price really hasn't climbed much for week 11, and he's still got the 5th most targets in all of football. And the Panthers are just getting killed in every phase of the game. I think this is the week Julio finally puts it back all together.

Anquan Boldin - FD 6900 DK 6100 DD 10550 DFSTR 6100
Are we the only ones recommending Boldin week after week? If so, shame on everybody! With Michael Crabtree's lingering health concerns fading him into obscurity, the 49ers have done all but hold a press conference to declare Boldin the #1 receiver. Even with an 8% price bump this week, he's still priced alongside guys that don't see anywhere near his targets. The 15 targets he saw last week are a little high, but the 10-12 range should be expected - and Boldin will have no problem paying off if that's the case.

Brandon Marshall - FD 7100 DK 5800 DD 11050 DFSTR 6300
Another guy we gave you last week, and the only Bear who managed to put together a decent game against the Packers. Our reasoning last week was that Marshall was returning from injury, and then Revis Island, to a much more favorable match-up. While Minnesota has been better against the pass this year than Green Bay, they still don't have a corner that matches up well with Marshall's combination of size and speed. Our projection system likes him to continue his 10+ target streak, and to collect the goodies that come with it.

Frankly, there are lots of wide receivers to choose from this week. Check out a free 3 day trial of our projection system if you want to see more.

 

Tight Ends

It pays to pay
Jimmy Graham - FD 7900 DK 7000 DD 13800 DFSTR 8200
Rob Gronkowski - FD 8100 DK 7900 DD 14150 DFSTR 8200
Tight end is a weird position each week. On one hand, decent tight ends are priced significantly below decent wide receivers with similar capabilities. There was no receiver, for instance, that we would have said had a higher projected points total than Mychal Rivera at a similar price point last week. So why do we recommend paying up? Upside. Like Graham (and to a lesser extent, Olsen) showed us last week, and Gronk showed us the week before, it's VERY hard to replicate the elite upside and safety that the top tight ends have. Graham at home against the putrid Bengals could be another monster. Gronkowski against the Colts in a game where the Patriots will be against yet another big name QB is another. When I can, I'm paying up this week. If I had to choose, I'd choose Gronk based on recent patterns and potential injury stuff. Cool? Cool.

But sometimes it feels good to pay less
Mychal Rivera - FD 5800 DK 3100 DD 7350 DFSTR 4600
Rivera headlined our week 10 sleepers article, and then put together high-target week with solid yardage and a score. Now the Raiders are truly the bottom of the barrel offensively, and his touchdown was admittedly about as garbagey as they get, but this is who the Raiders are. With no steady receiving option (I'm looking at you, James Jones), Rivera has turned into one of Carr's favorite safe targets. If you elect not to spend up this week because you like wide receivers better, Rivera seems like the easy choice.

 

Kickers

Just a strategy note on kickers, since I figure I'll share what's working well for me this season.

I've been taking kickers against teams that don't have spectacular defenses in decent weather conditions. I don't look at the kicker's individual "skill" at all, just opportunity. Typically kicker will be the very last spot I fill, and while there are situations I'll avoid (I wouldn't play kickers against Seattle, for instance, or any team that's a 6.5 point or more underdog), I think you can justify playing just about any other kicker in a GPP format especially. Don't sweat this too much - just pick a guy that fits in with the rest of what you want to do and go from there.

 

Defense & Special Teams

Denver Broncos
The Rams can't run the ball at all. Denver is the league's best running defense. Do you know what this means? Passing. And more passing from Austin Davis. And the Broncos knowing that they will pass. We saw how this turned out against Arizona last week. Not well for the Rams, but great for the opposing defense.

Big gap

New Orleans Saints
The gap between the top defensive play of the week and the next one is huge, for me. I'm honestly not in love with this play. But it's cheap, and so are a lot of you. Here's the case - Andy Dalton just came off a game in which he posted a 30 QB rating. The Brees led offense should get on the board early. The Saints have a couple of decent corners, and the Bengals should be in some clear passing situations. I'm not saying this pick is destined for greatness, but the upside is undeniable.

Safe, but unspectacular
San Diego Chargers
Well, my fears from the podcast came true last week. Oakland managed to keep Carr upright, and Denver had a less than huge fantasy performance against a terrible defense. While I don't think Oakland is ever going to go crazy offensively, I don't think they'll allow a ton of defensive fantasy points either. This one looks like a cash game play, to me.

Give a follow on Twitter @dailyfantasysr and @dougnorrie.

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