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featured Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

11/21/2014
Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy Football Picks for Week 12 - Draftster

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We have our general picks for Week 12 as well as our weekly Podcast.

Draftster has a ton of cool stuff going on including the a whole host of Freerolls

 

Quarterback

Phillip Rivers - $6000
One thing I really like about Draftster, as opposed to some of the other salary cap sites is the pricing adjustments on a week-to-week basis. As James mentioned on our podcast this week, an issue with some of the bigger sites is that prices will climb based on a good game, but rarely correct the other way when a guy comes back to Earth. Not so with Draftster as their pricing formula is more prone to swings. I like it for this reason as we are able to put together some truly different squads together and get exposure to players we wouldn’t on other sites. Rivers is a great example of this. He is coming off one dreadful game against the Dolphins and a so-so game last week against the Raiders. Now granted, the Rams have proven (to some degree) that they can handle big name quarterbacks (looking at you Peyton) but at 6K Rivers simply needs to have an average game. The Chargers will throw thirty times or more in a game if the opportunity is there and more than any other quarterback this week on Draftster, Rivers has the chance to completely blow away his salary. And I even think he is rather safe at this price.

Drew Brees - $7300
If you want to go a little safer without sacrificing too much on the salary end, then I think slotting in Brees is a perfectly plausible way to go. He sits priced underneath some of the big boys (Manning, Luck, Rodgers, uh, McCown) and has a fantastic opportunity in what should be a high-scoring game against the Ravens. Brees maintains a high completion percentage but just hasn’t blown it out of the box with his TD passes. This has kept his price suppressed. If you are a little worried about Rivers at that price then I’d go up a bit and snag Brees.

 

Running Backs

Arian Foster - $4500
Alfred Blue - $3800
I rarely get overly excited about anything (This of course isn’t true, as I get too excited about almost anything) but this is one of those situations you are going to want to go all in on. You are getting essentially punt prices for running backs on a team committed to run the ball. They are playing one of the worst teams in football at defending the run and the Texans are employing a backup quarterback meaning they must rely more heavily on their ground attack. And what’s truly special about this situation is that it’s a clear A or B move. Either Foster or Blue will get all of the carries. It’s cut and dry. Both have proven they can chew up large chunks on yards if given the opportunity. I’m monitoring this up until game time and getting incredible value on either.

Tre Mason - $4000
If he is going to be the unequivocal feature back for St. Louis then you basically have to start him at this price. Honestly, even if he was going to split some of the touches I’d still roll him out there at 4K. But last week he carried the ball 29 times against the Broncos and there’s reason to suspect the Rams will gameplan much of the same way against the Chargers. San Diego is slightly better than league average against the run, but I’m not letting that sway my thought process too terribly much considering the amount of touches Mason could see.
Joique Bell - $3600
In Bell you are getting a feature back (although admittedly he doesn’t see a ton of carries) against a middle of the road defense for the minimum price. With Bell we are almost solely talking about opportunity relative to salary. For $3600 you are getting a running back who gets 15-20 touches a game almost independent of scenario. Of course this changes a little bit if Reggie Bush is back in the fold, but Bell has seen games with 15+ carries even when Reggie is around. Again, it isn’t as if I completely love Bell. I just love the price.

 

Wide Receivers

TY Hilton - $7600
Reggie Wayne - $5600
Because I think you are getting tremendous value at running back this week it is reasonable and advisable to spend up a little at wide receiver for some of the bigger names. Granted Wayne doesn’t totally fall into the elite category, but both of these guys are in a great spot against Jacksonville. Because I don’t think you need to spend up to grab Luck at QB (though no one would fault you) you can get exposure to the Colts’ passing attack through these guys. In cash games even pairing them together in the hope that you target a majority of Indy’s offense through the air is a strategy I might just do. The Jaguars are terrible in their pass defense and the Colts have shown that they are willing to throw and throw and throw regardless of game situation, score, etc. Lot of safety here.

Demaryius Thomas - $9000
You have to pay through the roof to get him, and I’m rarely an advocate of doing such a thing because rarely is the most expensive guy the best value on a given slate. But if Julius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are shelved this week with injury then we could see Thomas get a zillion targets. He was already the highest targeted receiver in the Broncos’ offense and I can’t imagine those targets decrease if some of Peyton’s other weapons aren’t around. Again, you need to pay up. But if you’re saving elsewhere then getting a worse point/$ multiplier for a high floor guy is acceptable.

Consider Keenan Allen

 

Tight Ends

Rob Gronkowski - $7200
I’m not going to insult your football intelligence by explaining this one. He’s the best in the business and it isn’t particularly close. Still a value even at this price which is remarkable for tight end. But he’s just that good. Play him.

Consider Colby Fleener if you want to save a buck

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