Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 11/24/14

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Point Guard

Aaron Brooks - FD 4100 DK 4900 DFSTR 4000
This pick is contingent on both Hinrich and Rose sitting. If both of those guys are out, which looks very much to be the case, then playing Brooks at punt prices is a fantastic spot. The one thing that concerns me with him, and it probably limits his upside is the minutes. I want to believe that like every other Bull starter, he will see a full run. He didn't last game, but they were getting smoked. So it's hard to know. I'm willing to predict he gets thirty minutes here if it stays close. But there's some risk Thibs has him in a timeshare with E'twaun Moore. (And if you think that's the case then the latter is a moderately interesting spec play at the minimum).

Kyrie Irving - FD 7900 DK 8800 DFSTR 7100
Point guard is a tough position tonight. Most times there are a plethora of safer options in the upper-middle tier that you can slot in. Our multipliers are typically close on a smattering of dudes in the 7500-8200 range. But not tonight.The landscape is fuzzy. Kyrie sticks out because Orlando has allowed worse than league average scoring to opposing point guards and will struggle to defend him, especially around the perimeter. He doesn't break the bank for what he can provide though the risk with Kyrie is that, unlike most PGs, his value is in his scoring. He doesn't rack up big assist numbers which does hurt his value.

One thing to note on Damian Lillard. I suspect he will be a high % play because of the name and the matchup. It's worth noting that Philly has actually kept opposing PGs in check this season and there is significant blowout risk.

 

Shooting Guard

Jimmy Butler - FD 7700 DK 7400 DFSTR 5700
This play, much like Brooks, is contingent on Rose sitting. Which looks to be the case. Butler is a hugh usage guy when he needs to be a primary scorer in the offense (when Rose is out). His price has climbed out of the "must start" range and is now solidly in a "value" state. His upside is in his minutes. He gets miles of run, especially without Rose and I love his floor in cash games. I don't think the upside is there like when we were playing him last week, but for cash games if you can work him in he strikes me as incredibly safe.

Wesley Matthews - FD 6200 DK 6500 DFSTR 4900
While I don't love Lillard so much tonight, Wes is definitely a guy to target. Philly is beyond dreadful against shooting guards, allowing 25% more points than league average against the position. While Wes has been a bit all over the place this season, so have the Blazers. They've rarely played with their full squad. I'm of the mind that this is a night they fully exploit another team's weakness and get him open look after open look. Game needs to stay close-ish for him to fully pay. But SG is typically a weird position and I love playing matchups.

Evan Fournier - FD 5500 DK 5000 DFSTR 5000
Here is a situation in which you are paying primarily for the minutes. Fournier is a fine enough player given an opportunity with the Magic this season. And they've rewarded him by giving him in the mid thirties worth of minutes every night. Now, this game could get ugly. But the Cavs have shown some weakness this season. And other teams are playing up. Makes nice salary relief for the amount of usage he gets out of the position.

Consider Lou Williams

 

Small Forward

LeBron James - FD 10100 DK 11300 DFSTR 9300
In terms of the big money, this is where you want to spend if possible. Lebron has a great matchup tonight with the Magic who are among the worst in the league at defending the small forward. They allow 15% more scoring and 12% more rebounds to the position and just generally stink in that area. Tobias Harris is either out or possibly not playing at 100%. The Cavs have been, putting it mildly, working through some things right now. They are struggling. This is the kind of game that gets them back on track. The Magic don't have the horses to hang here throughout. I think Lebron goes beast mode. Whenever possible, I'll have him all over cash lineups.

Kostas Papanikolaou - FD 4400 DK 3600 DFSTR 4200
This play is strictly if Howard isn't able to go. If Dwight sits, Kosta becomes pretty much a must-start because he sees a definitive minutes bump when the big guy is out.

Nicolas Batum - FD 6900 DK 6900 DFSTR 5800
Much like Matthews, Batum is in a great position tonight to wreak havoc all over the Sixers. How long he's able to play is the real question if you think this thing gets out of hand early. He played 32 minutes last night meaning he's fully back from injury. And the Sixers are the Sixers. They stink. Batum should play well in a fast-paced games and typically does enough across the stat sheet as to have a high floor when things are clicking.

Trevor Ariza - FD 6000 DK 6100 DFSTR 5700
The Knicks are below average against small forwards and Ariza is completely affordable, seeing his price drop over the short term. The Knicks are particularly bad in stopping the opposing SFs from getting to the boards. They've allowed 20% more rebounding to the four than the league average. Ariza is in that great midrange price that allows for a decent amount of upside if he's seeing open corner threes.

Chris Copeland - FD 5000 DK 5500 DFSTR 5600
He's been dreadful, but he's also shot way, way under his career averages for the season. I'm not calling him safe by any means, but you could be buying low on the guy. There's some upside if he can find his shot for an evening.
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Power Forward

Pau Gasol - FD 8600 DK 7300 DFSTR 8100
Nikola Mirotic - FD 3700 DK 4300 DFSTR 3000
I really like both of these guys tonight and if for some reason Gasol can't go, Mirotic becomes a must play. Even with Pau around, Nikola stands to see a minutes jump with Taj Gibson hurt and if he is getting say 26 minutes instead of the 18 he's averaging then I think you can really make the case to play him in cash games. Honestly, there's even a case for pairing them together in cash games, which seems nuts but totally plausible.

Derrick Favors - FD 7000 DK 7100 DFSTR 6800
I actually don't mind the matchup tonight against the Bulls. Chicago has been about league average against power forwards this season and have struggled on the rebounding side of things. This definitely plays to Favors' skill set and his midrange price allows for flexibility elsewhere.

Channing Frye - FD 5000 DK 5200 DFSTR 5100
He falls in the Fournier mode in that he comes super cheap for how many minutes he gets on a nightly basis. Cleveland has been getting just totally blitzed by power forwards this season, allowing a whopping 24% more scoring than league average to the position. Now Frye isn't a traditional four, but there is still reason to believe he can stretch the Cavs D and even get some open looks against Love.

 

Center

Al Jefferson - FD 8700 DK 7900 DFSTR 7900
Marc Gasol hammered home the point last night that the Clippers are going to really struggle with centers, especially elite-ish ones. They are below average in every defensive metric. Jefferson's been a 20/10 machine of late and this is the kind of matchup that continues the trend. The Clippers have some serious deficiencies and I think Charlotte can hang here at home. I love the matchup as Deandre and company are pretty much window dressing on defense.

Anderson Varejao - FD 5100 DK 5200 DFSTR 5600
Been on a crushing tour of late basically crushing these prices without almost any issue. He's not an elite center by any means, but if he's out there for thirty minutes a night and the CAvs are willing to get him the ball inside then he should be considered pretty safe.

Consider Robin Lopez and Nikola Vucevic

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