Daily Fantasy Football Picks for Week 14 - FanDuel, DraftKings, Draftday, and Draftster

Oh, baby! I hope you had as good a week as we did around here. We took our own medicine and played Ryan Fitzpatrick (featured in our week 13 sleepers article) in every single lineup based on the price inefficiencies, and well - it paid off. So it's with considerable vim and vigor that we plow toward week 14!

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Quarterbacks

A few people have reached out and wondered why we don't frequently feature more expensive QBs. Here's the thing - saving $1k on the QB position can mean going from a questionable WR to a clean WR1 with no question marks, or a questionable RB up to CJ Anderson. These are plays recommended on a production per dollar basis. Cool? Cool.

Aaron Rodgers - FD 10400 DK 9800 DD 17750 DFSTR
Rodgers went out and did about exactly what we thought he’d do against the Pats, continuing to prove that he’s among the safest QB options in the game. So, here he is: topping our cash game recommendations yet again. While it’s tough to incorporate any of his weapons alongside him for GPP purposes (you basically have to guess which you think will have the biggest game), his cash game prowess is unquestionable. The big boon for Rodgers’ fantasy value this year has been the fact that the Pack have moved a ton of their rushing touches into short passing touches, giving Rodgers both yardage and TD safety on a week to week basis. The Falcons' dead last passing defense is obviously a pot sweetener as well - but we might want to keep an eye on the blowout risk.

Matthew Stafford - FD 8300 DK 7900 DD 12400 DFSTR The game we were finally waiting for from the Detroit offense, and it couldn’t have come soon enough! With Megatron and Tate clicking as one of the league’s best 1 and 1a receivers, the Detroit offense should be one of the more dynamic ones in the league – not the plodding disaster they’d been for several weeks leading up to the Bears game in week 13. Well, everything is coming together at the right time. They’ve found their feature back – Bell looked terrific in 23 carries against Chicago – and this balance should lead to a great outing for Stafford against a Bucs defense that has allowed some huge games to opposing QBs this season. And what really sells you here? The savings. You can get Stafford at mid-range QB prices, and he’s the only one at those levels who can provide QB1 upside.

Drew Brees - FD 9400 DK 9100 DD 15800 DFSTR
We’ve given you Brees week after week, and his performance has finally caught up to where the numbers had suggested it would be. Gone are the days of him being drastically underpriced, but he’s still right there. It’s really pretty amazing when you consider the injury to Brandin Cooks, and the fact that you’re more likely to see Jimmy Graham on the back of a milk carton than you are to see him in a red zone possession. But this is what makes Brees one of the very, very best cash game options. If you can put the ball where it’s supposed to be, you can get away with a sub-par receiving core. I’m loving him against a Panthers team back at home where Brees plays best.

Philip Rivers - FD 8200 DK 6800 DD 12850 DFSTR
After a couple of tough weeks in not so great match-ups, Rivers responded by having his biggest fantasy game of the season - 383 yards and 3 touch downs - against the league's 2nd most generous passing defense in Baltimore. Obviously, the Pats have a tougher passing defense than the Ravens do, but in spite of some big names on the defensive side of the ball they've still allowed the 7th most passing yards in the league. The reason? It's primarily game script and how fast their offense moves. I expect the Pats to score at will against the Chargers, and the Chargers to respond with trying to stick with what they do best - move the ball through the air. Keenan Allen's resurgence should be mitigated by Revis, but our projection system thinks the Chargers have enough offensive weapons for Rivers to survive a trip to Revis Island.

Also considered: Russell Wilson in a great match-up with the Eagles.
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Running Backs

Arian Foster - FD 8700 DK 9300 DD 15250 DFSTR
Just like we predicted - Foster got his full assortment of touches - and even in a blow-out, he got the full run we've come to expect when he's right. We'd of course have loved to have him get more red zone opportunities given the score, but it's tough to be disappointed with 100+ yards of total offense and a score. And that's really what Foster should bring you: security. He'll get his mid 20s touches unless there are health concerns, and the Jags' 7th worst rushing defense and generally terrible team should put Foster in a fine position to continue to produce.

Joique Bell - FD 6800 DK 5500 DD 9200 DFSTR
We're keeping an eye on Reggie Bush's status with this one, but if he is out again, I simply love Joique Bell at these prices against the Bucs. Joique has seen somewhat limited touches in the not too distant past largely because of how the games were flowing. Tough match-ups against New England (since they were getting crushed), Arizona (with their tough run D), and Miami (and their tough all-around D) had left his fantasy value floundering. With a slight reprieve against Chicago, he produced. What's more - he's the Lions #1 red zone option at present, so if the Lions are moving the ball, Bell should have a chance. The main consideration here is price, once again. Bell has shown that he CAN produce RB1 numbers in the right match-up, and this one against the weak Bucs could be it - all at very speculative prices.

Le'Veon Bell - FD 9300 DK 9400 DD 15700 DFSTR
The better Bell falls one slot below just due to how expensive he's become, but man - it's awfully tough to complain about what he brings to the table. Back to back games with 200+ total yards is pretty absurd for a running back. While the match-ups were certainly terrific, Bell's incredible combination of opportunity (32 touches per game in his last 2), and what he's doing with it (4.8 YPC and almost 10 YPC), are basically unheard of. In week 14? Bell gets another softball - Cincinnati is the 8th worst team against the run this year - and I see no reason why his opportunities shouldn't continue to pour in for week 14.

Mark Ingram - FD 7700 DK 6500 DD 10450 DFSTR
Ingram looked fantastic and explosive again against the Steelers - posting 122 yards on 5.3 yards per carry. His failure to find the end zone is modestly worrying, but I think that had more to do with what the Steelers were showing than what the Saints were doing. While I don't expect the Saints to revert to their early season rushing tendencies in the RZ with Brees clicking, I do think it will be a little more balanced down there. The Panthers are in the bottom half of the league against the run, and I think Ingram will get as much opportunity as he has all season.

DeMarco Murray - FD 8800 DK 8800 DD 15200 DFSTR
If there's a game that speaks to Murray's safety, it is the last one against the Eagles. In a game where the Cowboys lost by 23 points, Murray still touched the ball 26 times for more than 100 yards and a score. Like Ingram - Murray's red zone usage (32 touches down there this season) isn't reflected in the touch downs he is scoring recently, and I think he'll put up another vintage performance this Thursday.

Justin Forsett - FD 7400 DK 6900 DD 11950 DFSTR
Forsett has 3 straight games with 100 yards or more on mid-20s touches. While Miami is no slouch against the run, they're even better against the pass. Call me a cynic, but I think the Ravens are a lot more likely to trust the reliability of Forsett instead of taking an unnecessary gamble on Flacco and his mish-mash of receiving options. Goal line touches continue to be a concern for Forsett, so this feels more like a cash game play that should be applied in order to make the money work.

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Wide Receivers

Josh Gordon - FD 8000 DK 8100 DD 12650 DFSTR
Can it be true? Will Josh Gordon be freed from the chains that are Brian Hoyer's terrible passes? It is looking that way, early on. And the great news for us? Gordon is still priced like a speculative guy, instead of a stud. His 13 fantasy points per game aren't anything to write home about, but I promise you this: If a guy with Gordon's talent continues to get 13-16 targets per game, he is going to crush that number. I'd never call anyone purely match-up proof, but let me say this - at this price, and this potential production, a lot would have to go wrong for me to not play Gordon in all of my lineups. This might break our projection system, if it continues.

DeAndre Hopkins - FD 7500 DK 6600 DD 12000 DFSTR
Huh. I sort of missed this call until about 30 minutes before kick off on Sunday, when I frantically asked Doug what he thought of Hopkins. I was plugging Fitzpatrick in as a no-stack guy, forgetting that Fitzpatrick was actually developing a great rapport with Hopkins before he was taken out of the starting lineup. Well, we all know what happened by now - 9 catches, 238 yards, 2 touch downs. And since he was a relatively low start, his price hasn't climbed very much. While the routes he runs will make 9 catches on 9 targets generally unlikely, a receiver with his explosiveness only needs to haul in 5 of those to pay off this price. The Jags have the 8th worst passing defense in the league. This could be another big one.

Calvin Johnson - FD 9200 DK 9500 DD 15450 DFSTR
Speaking of big ones! I was waiting for Calvin to post a real Megatron game before recommending him again, because like Jimmy Graham, I was concerned about his health. Let's just say I'm no longer concerned. The emergence of Golden Tate has only helped Johnson, as he's just gobbled up the poo-poo platter of passes that were going to other guys. Megatron saw 16 targets against the Bears, and while that's fairly unlikely to continue, he could crush WR1 prices with a 25% decline from there. In my darkest moments I might doubt him against elite cover corners, but the Bucs don't have anything close. They've been wrecked by WR1s several times this season, and I think Johnson follows suit.

Kelvin Benjamin - FD 7500 DK 6500 DD 11700 DFSTR
Man, is this a "what have you done for me lately?" league or what? Fresh off of two incredible games, Benjamin posts a relative stinker - just 5 catches for 56 yards. And it's easy to get spoiled with WR production after a week where seemingly everyone put up a huge game. But the trends for Benjamin remain incredibly positive. He's garnered more than 10 targets per week over the last 4 weeks, and is now the team's most targeted receiver in the red zone. And with rookies, we have to trust recent opportunity more than with other players, because it's frequently a reflection of how the team is coming to understand their abilities. His downfield game will lead to some variance, but a Hopkins-like explosion is not out of the question for him. On turf against the Saints? I'm not saying, but I'm just saying.

Dez Bryant - FD 8600 DK 7100 DD 13250 DFSTR
I'll be honest, I have no idea how Jason Garett is justifying Bryant's lack of involvement in the offense in a game where they lost by 23 points. In a game just following 2 games where he posted 2 touchdowns, each. Well, if there was ever a week to bounce back, I suppose this would be the one. The Bears have featured the 3rd most generous defense to opposing receivers this year, and don't have anyone who can match up with Bryant's combination of size and speed.

Also considered: Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery - both are seeing lots of targets, both between the 20s and in the red zone

 

Tight Ends

Jordan Reed - FD 5300 DK 4600 DD 8800 DFSTR
Our projection system might be overreacting to the last game - which saw Reed see the workload and production that many were projecting for him all along. But there is something to chew on here - the emergence of Colt McCoy. Different QBs are going to feel more comfortable with different guys, and I'm more than happy to gamble on Reed being one of those guys for McCoy. You don't want to make too much of 1 game, but there really could be something here.

Rob Gronkowski - FD 7700 DK 8000 DD 13950 DFSTR
We tend to pick two lanes when it comes to tight ends - a cheap option, and a spendy option. Gronk is so far ahead of the field when it comes to being an expensive option, that it's kind of embarrassing. With Jimmy Graham clearly struggling with his health and Greg Olsen seeing intermittent opportunity, Gronkowski is the closest thing we currently have to a "safe" tight end. While you hate the two game touch down drought (especially the distressing emergence of Tim Wright), Gronk on 11 targets a game is going to be as productive as anyone in the game. My hope is that people get disillusioned with him, and I can grab him at less than premium prices against the Bolts.

Also considered: Martellus Bennett, Greg Olsen

 

Kickers

Just a strategy note on kickers, since I figure I'll share what's working well for me this season.

I've been taking kickers against teams that don't have spectacular defenses in decent weather conditions. I don't look at the kicker's individual "skill" at all, just opportunity. Typically kicker will be the very last spot I fill, and while there are situations I'll avoid (I wouldn't play kickers against Seattle, for instance, or any team that's a 6.5 point or more underdog), I think you can justify playing just about any other kicker in a GPP format especially. Don't sweat this too much - just pick a guy that fits in with the rest of what you want to do and go from there.

 

Defense & Special Teams

Houston Texans
Until the Jags can give a single opposing defense a bad fantasy score, I'm probably going to call their opponent the safest play on the board. Especially when Oakland's opponent is so much more expensive. And really - the Jags give up a LOT more sacks than the Raiders do, and their QB is equally erratic. The Jags should be playing catch-up, as always, which should lead to plenty of turnover opportunity.

Denver Broncos
The Bills have pretty much 0 chance of running effectively against Denver's second ranked run defense. You know what that means? Balls in the air, baby! If the Bills have to pass, and Denver knows they have to pass, how much faith do you have in Kyle Orton to not make some truly embarrassing mistakes? The Broncos are no Browns. If the Bills can't get in the position to salt away the clock, I love the Broncos for both safety AND upside.

Minnesota Vikings
Somehow, the Jets only turned the ball over once against the Dolphins - and that right at the end of the game. And they still only scored 13 points. The Vikings are 4th in the league in sacks this year, and their pressure in the backfield should drive an already putrid offense up a wall. This has all the makings of a total mess on the Jets side of the ball, and I'll be playing the Vikings D to capitalize.

Give a follow on Twitter @dailyfantasysr and @dougnorrie.

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Thanks, and good luck!