Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 12/18/14

Welcome to our daily fantasy basketball column - where we provide the best daily plays on a points per dollar basis.

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Point Guard

A quick word before we get started. It's a weird night. Lots of great defenses, and not a lot of great values. We're going to be scrapping out Ws tonight, and it wouldn't surprise me to see some winning GPPs in the very low 300s or high 200s on FanDuel. It's that kind of night. So, let's get to it.

Patrick Beverley - FD 5600 DK 5500 DFSTR 5000
Beverley saw a noticeable dip in basically every category in Dwight's first game back, but we're obviously on a pretty short sample size here. So why Beverley in this game? It mostly comes to the fact that there aren't a lot of great match-ups tonight, and he's got one of them. The Pelicans have allowed 6% more points scoring than league average to point guards, and in terms of overall fantasy points, they have allowed the 7th most. Even with a decline in usage, Beverley is a favorite for the highest points per dollar game from a PG today.

Russell Westbrook - FD 10800 DK 11700 DFSTR 8200
Around DFSR headquarters, we've been calling Westbrook the Cheat Code. Dude is just 2 steps faster than anyone on the court at the present moment. With 3 straight 50 point fantasy games and just 1 game under 40 fantasy points this season, Westbrook is the safest big money player alive at this moment in time. This will be his test, though. Golden State has defended PGs terrifically this year, and Steph's much improved footwork is making a difference. But if the Warriors' rim protector is out, I don't see how they'll do anything to impede this freight train.

Jose Calderon - FD 5100 DK 4500 DFSTR 4100
This is more of a GPP play, I suppose, but I really like Calderon's upside tonight. Let's be real: the Dallas game was a little weird. Calderon's minutes were jerked all over the place and the Knicks were down 19-7 before I got back from the bathroom. But there is a lot to like about Calderon, too. First of all, he's playing a ton of minutes for a player at this price. Okay, that might be the only thing. But it's a short slate, and he wouldn't have to do much at all to pay this off... and if he gets hot from 3, it could be pretty interesting.

 

Shooting Guard

James Harden - FD 10600 DK 11600 DFSTR 9400
Yep, we're going back to the Harden well again. I called Westbrook the steadiest big money player going at present, but Harden is awfully close. I'm writing this with the Denver game still in doubt, but Harden has been absolutely tearing up opposing defenses recently, and even with Dwight back, I doubt he gives away much of his gains. He's steamrolling to an MVP candidacy with more than 50 fantasy points in six of his last ten games. That's ridiculous. And who on the Pelicans is supposed to guard him, exactly? We could be in for another monster. I'll try my best to get Harden AND Westbrook in, which probably means I'll wind up playing...

Tim Hardaway Jr. - FD 4900 DK 5400 DFSTR 3000
There's even reason to NOT play Hardaway tonight. A dramatic price increase. A terrible opponent. Et cetera. But Hardaway is still playing mid thirties minutes, and can still create shots for himself (unlike most Knicks). I fully expect the Bulls to steamroll the Knicks, but Hardaway's minutes were blowout-proof against the Mavs. If he plays those mid-thirties minutes, it's going to be tough for him to not put together 20 or more fantasy points, with a lot of upside if he gets hot.

Tyreke Evans - FD 7500 DK 8300 DFSTR 7400
Let's not get carried away with the "Harden might be the defensive player of the year as well!" line. Harden's looking better out there this year, but the Rockets are still 22nd in the league at defending opposing SGs. And while I liked Tyreke a lot more with Brow out, our projection system likes him fine regardless.

Small Forward

Trevor Ariza - FD 6200 DK 6500 DFSTR 5700
Our projection system just can't get enough of Trevor Ariza at these prices. It's weird, because you can essentially know for sure what Ariza will do on a given night. And on nights with relatively limited options, that's priceless. He'll get his 40ish minutes and put up his 25-30 FPs. And like Doug pointed out last night, he certainly could have a random 80% from 3 night, in which he's on all GPP winning lineups. He's not sexy right now, but I'd be happy to play Ariza anywhere.

Khris Middleton - FD 4900 DK 5600 DFSTR 3500
This one is dependent on how another late game tonight shakes out. Kidd has been erratic in distributing minutes, but if Middleton draws the lion's share of Jabari's leftovers, he'll be a must play at these prices almost regardless of opponent. Playing Sacramento and their 23rd ranked SF defense certainly doesn't hurt matters.

Rudy Gay - FD 8600 DK 9200 DFSTR 7500
So this one feels a little weird to me, but our projection system is convinced. Even when Boogie was playing, Gay was getting essentially these same minutes. While the usage will almost certainly be down, he should be able to get his shots in the air, and it might even space the offense out a little bit better with a credible threat down low. No offense, Jason Thompson, Ryan Hollins, and Reggie Evans, if you're reading this. This doesn't feel like a superlative GPP play to me, but I like it quite a bit if Middleton doesn't see his minutes in Wednesday's game.

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Power Forward

Donatas Motiejunas - FD 6000 DK 5500 DFSTR 4400
Dwight coming back hasn't cut into Motiejunas' minutes or usage so far, and that's really what we're looking hard at, here. Even with Davis at PF, the Pelicans have allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing power forwards this year. Motiejunas is showing a far more polished offensive game than people expected, and the volume of shots he's taking will give him a pretty high floor tonight.

Amar'e Stoudemire - FD 6100 DK 6000 DFSTR 5400
With Noah coming back tomorrow night, Stoudemire leapfrogs Gibson as by far the best play of the day in our projection system. Jeez, it's awfully hard to call any PF safe tonight, but you love investing a little less on a guy who can provide 30+ fantasy upside. Again, this is a horrible night for power forwards, but I think Amar'e could have some success against Gasol.

Anthony Davis - FD 11200 DK 11800 DFSTR 9400
Just a quick one here - but I'm totally unconcerned about Davis' chest at this point. Even if it is hilarious that he's wearing a protective flak jacket. Let's not forget that he's posting the highest fantasy totals of anyone before his very brief little injury there, and he could resume that status almost immediately. Especially if there are decent ways to go cheap elsewhere, I'd strongly consider Davis tonight as well.

Center

Steven Adams - FD 4000 DK 4300 DFSTR 4400
Writing that name just made me die inside a little bit. There's not a lot to love about Steven Adams' game, but if he's going to play 22-30 minutes a game, he's going to produce on this ridiculous salary. Golden State really struggles to defend the rim with Bogut out, and 20+ fantasy points looks like a lot to me.

HUGE GAP

To be honest, it's hard to recommend anyone else tonight. Dwight has a decent amount of upside. Asik looks like the safest non-Adams play. But each of those guys has serious issues as well. Our system would have you believe that Boogie could crush it on 33ish minutes, but I'm not going anywhere near that viral meningitis. Play Adams, people. I will be.

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