Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 12/26/14

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Point Guard

Russell Westbrook - FD 11600 DK 12000 DFSTR
What Westbrook is doing right now is sort of inhuman. But oddly consistent. He single-handedly led a Durant-less Thunder past the reigning world champions in his second straight 60+ fantasy point performance. His usage rate has been through the roof (39.6% - 5% higher than the next highest player!), and he's still managed to be efficient. He's basically the realization of what everyone throughout the league feared his upside would be. And Charlotte has allowed 8% more points than league average and 11% more assists than league average to opposing PGs. Right guy at the right time, and a cash game must.

Elfrid Payton - FD 4700 DK 5000 DFSTR 4100
Bringing it back in the other direction, Payton represents basically the opposite of Westbrook. With him, it's basically that his price hasn't caught up with his opportunity. He's playing ~29 minutes per game, and he's got the talent to put an easy 5x on this FanDuel price when the match-up is right. And against Kyrie? The match-up is right. The only concern for me here is the blow-out factor. After an embarrassing Christmas loss, I imagine the Cavs will be out for blood.

Kyrie Irving - FD 7800 DK 9400 DFSTR 7000
To that end, I think Kyrie and the Cavs will put up some decent numbers before this one is said and done. Irving isn't much of a GPP play for me, but the minutes have manifested in some startling consistency - his last three games have ended within .8 fantasy points of one another. Orlando has allowed 9% more fantasy points than league average to opposing PGs, and this is quite the high-floor game for Irving.

Shooting Guard

Monta Ellis - FD 7800 DK 7500 DFSTR 7400
To be honest, shooting guard is pretty tough for me tonight. Ellis feels modestly risky to me given concerns around he and Rondo co-existing, but his 38 points against the Spurs in Rondo's debut gives me hope that he'll still shine in the right match-ups. This one feels like one of those. Rondo should be able to whatever he wants to Lin, which should means a lot of open looks for Monta when Rondo kicks it out. And frankly, there should be plenty to go around for all the Mavs starters in this one. Blowout is a concern of course, but if a blow-out happens, Ellis should be at the center of it.

Manu Ginobili - FD 5800 DK 5000
Always a risk for the DNP, but oh a relatively light night I would be happy to get Manu involved if I knew he were playing. He's only playing 26 minutes a night, but he's handling the ball a ton (his 25.6% usage rate lands him between Rudy Gay and Damian Lillard), and been incredibly effective with the touches he is taking. He has back to back double digit assist games, and I think we might be looking at how the Spurs plan to use him going forward. He should shred New Orleans' second unit handily.

Also considered: Wes Matthews - great play, except for the blow-out issue. Also, Nick Young if he winds up getting the start.

Two weird dudes: Our projection system loves Arron Afflalo, but the next time I choose him in the right match-up will be the first one. It's also bullish on Rodney Stuckey, though his usage has been weird recently. All in all, SG is tough for me tonight.
 

Small Forward

Shabazz Muhammad - FD 6200 DK 6400 DFSTR 4900
Shabazz is the safest 5x in the game now that Corey Brewer is gone. He's playing 35+ minutes, and has simply been phenomenal. He's been basically a lock for 20 and 6 with a bunch of other stuff around the core stats, and Denver has been roughly average against the SF position this year. He'll be on all of my teams, from cash games to GPPs.

Gerald Henderson - FD 4000 DK 4200 DFSTR 3800
With Stephenson continuing to sit, Henderson has been playing roughly 30 minutes per game, and performing more than adequately on these ridiculously low prices. He posted 7x on this FanDuel price against Milwaukee, and while the Thunder will defend the position better than the Bucks, they're a lot worse at the position with Durant out. But really, the defense doesn't matter. When guys like Henderson are playing 30 minutes on a $4k price tag, we're talking about the difference between a terrific play and a must-play on any given night.

Robert Covington - FD 5700 DK 5800 DFSTR 4600
Rounding out our cheapish SF trio, one Robert Covington. He's looking every bit the legit NBA starter at this point - protecting the ball well, crashing the boards, and racking up defensive stats with the best of them. Blow-out is a risk every game for the Sixers, and Covington's track record in spite of that fact is what reassures me as far as his minutes are concerned. And I actually like this match-up with Batum unlikely to play. Even if Batum does, Covington does enough that he should be able to pay 5-7x on his FanDuel price.

Desperate to spend? Our projection system likes Lebron just fine, and recommends Tobias Harris as well.

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Power Forward

David West - FD 6800 DK 6200 DFSTR 6000
Now that he's playing 30+ minutes a game again, he's paying 4.5x-5x fairly handily regardless of the match-up. West poses a difficult situation for the over-sized Detroit front court. With Smith gone, it will be tough for Monroe to keep up with West's mid-range game. While he may give back some of those offensive gains on the boards, West should still have a nice game.

Greg Monroe - FD 6200 DK 7400 DFSTR
On the other end of the court, the Pacers may get utterly abused. Hibbert will have his hands full with freak of nature Monroe, leaving West to defend another natural Center. And regardless of match-up, Monroe's price is going to soar when the sites adjust for his new minutes situation. This is a case of inefficient pricing - nothing more, and I'll very likely play Monroe everywhere, even on the risk that he doesn't inherit as many minutes as I think he will.

Tristan Thompson - FD 5500 DK 5500 DFSTR 4800
As predicted in yesterday's picks article, Thompson's price immediately corrected in anticipation of his increased minutes. Well, Thompson's minutes didn't increase as much as predicted, but a lot of that was because Cleveland was chasing late and elected to go super-small. In a game that projects to have a more natural game script (i.e., Cleveland crushing someone), I suspect Thompson will get his full allotment of minutes and still wind up paying off this increased price against Orlando.

Look out for the Z-bo situation. Both Leuer and Koufos become interesting plays depending on who starts.

Also considered: Dirk. He'll be a big rec on a lot of sites, but I like the above guys a little bit better just because Dirk simply hasn't done it recently. Still seems like a safe cash play, but I'll go elsewhere.

Center

Steven Adams - FD 4500 DK 4400 DFSTR 4400
It feels good to be king, sometimes. Here's what I wrote about Steven Adams yesterday:

Just like all of the Thunder, the Big Kiwi sees an uptick in usage with Durant out, as opposing defenses ultimately learn that Westbrook will shoot 95% of the time unless triple teamed. While a lot of Adams' buckets will come in the form of put-back dunks and other easy stuff around the rim, who cares? He's averaged almost 10 boards a game in his last 8, and should be able to continue this against the Spurs on Christmas.
Well, Adams did everything asked of him and more - showing that he could be a legit piece in a tough match-up with San Antonio. And now he goes from facing one of the league's tougher defenses to Charlotte, who's anchored down-low by the offense-first Jefferson. This will be your last chance to get Adams at below $5k on FanDuel - make the most of it.

DeMarcus Cousins - FD 10400 DK 10700 DFSTR 6200
In the awkward mismatch category, I present to you one Demarcus "Boogie" Cousins. Boogie has looked terrific in his return from viral meningitis, and our projection system loves him even on a conservatively projected 32 minutes against Phoenix's league-worst Center defense.

Also considered: No one. The above are my guys.

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