Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 1/17/15

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Point Guard

Derrick Rose - FD 6800 DK 6500 DFSTR 6200
At the risk of just copy/pasting last night's picks, it seems silly to artificially change them when the great plays are still great. Rose is back. There's no two ways about it. This price is going to rise by 20% by the end of the season if Rose stays healthy. And right now he's healthy. And he's CRUSHING IT. Unfortunately, I think the gravy train of people not noticing Rose is over, but you can still collect on the people who elect not to go with Rose tonight. It's not the best match-up, but for a player of Rose's caliber at this price, not much has changed.

Mo Williams - FD 6200 DK 5800 DFSTR 5200
Wrote this about Mo last night - I'm not sure what's changed.

Mo is playing minutes, and he's the main offensive weapon the Wolves are sporting at present time. Phoenix has been basically league average against PGs this season, but Mo's price is still wrong if he's going to be in the high 30s of minutes per game at this usage rate.

Granted, I'm writing this before the Phoenix game is over (though Mo has 10.5 fantasy points 10 minutes in), but I believe Williams remains one of the great undervalued quantities in the game if he's going to play starters' minutes with this kind of usage in that lineup. I don't see why he should do any worse against Lawson than he's done against better defensive PGs elsewhere.

Beno Udrih - FD 3500 DK 3000 DFSTR 3500
Beno? More like BeYes! Udrih ripped it up on this price last night, and is the top play in our projection system once again (assuming Conley's ankle holds him out for another night. Not a whole lot to write, here. Udrih is truly match-up proof if he is going to get 25 minutes at a minimum price.

Also considered: Michael Carter-Williams.

 

Shooting Guard

Tony Allen - FD 4700 DK 4000 DFSTR 4400
I just love Allen here if this 30 minutes a game thing is going to stick. He wreaked havoc against the Magic, scoring/stealing/blocking/boarding/assisting his way to a very Tony Allen 5+x on this FanDuel price. Portland's basically league average against the position, but Allen's hustle stats translate pretty well to any lineup as long as the game doesn't move at a snail's pace.

Wesley Matthews - FD 6000 DK 5600 DFSTR 4900
Shooting guard is pretty thin tonight, so getting a guy who gets 34-35 minutes for $6k in a great offense is looking pretty appealing. Granted, Tony Allen doesn't present the greatest match-up, but Matthews isn't expected to create his own shot. I wouldn't say the sky's the limit on the upside, but I think Matthews has as high a floor (figure 4x on this FanDuel price) as any SG going today.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - FD 4400 DK 3900 DFSTR 4100
I find myself going cheap at shooting guard with great frequency on shorter slates, and it's looking like tonight won't be the exception to that rule. And it's not even that short a slate, it's just that most of the teams going today have a pretty sorry excuse for a shooting guard situation. Enter Caldwell-Pope! Unless you think last night's Sixers game is going to pave the way for the Sixers to establish themselves as a defensive juggernaut, it should be a great situation for Pistons today. KCP is basically a worse version of Wesley Matthews with a much better opponent. He's a little riskier, but there's more upside here as well.

Also considered: Brad Beal. Blech. Blech, I say! Always tough taking a guy after he sucked it up against this EXACT TEAM last night. But, foul trouble is pretty unusual for him, and he ran pretty darn bad from the field. I might roll it back, here.

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Small Forward

Wilson Chandler - FD 5800 DK 5700 DFSTR 4900
If Chandler's minutes floor is 33 and his ceiling is 39, this price will look pretty ridiculous as his stats and percentages come out in the wash. Minny has allowed the third most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this season, and Chandler is healthily atop my personal small forward list for tonight's games.

Andrew Wiggins - FD 7300 DK 6900 DFSTR 5200
If you're a man whose imagination is captured more by safety than transcendent upside, you're probably right at home nestled inside the warm embrace of young Andrew Wiggins. The Wolves' stud rookie is playing absurd minutes (38-40 per game), and producing just fine when he's out there, thank you very much. These kind of minutes mean that a lot of the discount has been milked out of his price, but that doesn't mean he can't anchor your cash game lineups with his solid/predictable 4.5-5x production on these prices. The match-up limits the upside, but just being out there on the floor that long should help Wiggins provide his usual production.

Robert Covington - FD 5700 DK 5500 DFSTR 4800
Covington's shoulder didn't seem to bother him on Friday, as he led the Sixers to an improbable blow-out of the New Orleans Pelicans. He did what we've come to expect from him - contributions across all five categories while being very stingy with his turnovers. He's turning into a legit NBA rotation guy. Now, Detroit isn't quite as soft a match-up as New Orleans is when it comes to defending the small forward position, but I wouldn't say you should be threatened by Kyle Singler's existence here. I think it's another great spot for the Sixers youngster.

Also considered: KJ McDaniels.

Punt possibility: If Gay sits again, keep an eye on Omri Casspi.

Great freerolls for miles over at Scorestreak, by the way. Get involved today by clicking the banner below! And they have a great offer: refer a friend, have them play $25 worth of games and get a $25 Amazon gift card.

Power Forward

Taj Gibson - FD 5300 DK 5400 DFSTR 5200
I'm pretty sure we saw Gibson's floor against Boston, and even then he paid nearly 5x on these prices. Noah is headed for an MRI, so it looks for all the world like he'll have an extended absence. Which means we get to do the classic Gibson escalator dance - his price will climb to $6,500, Noah will return, and Gibson will be unplayable again. Get it while it's hot! Especially after people are modestly soured after he didn't absolutely crush it on 39 minutes last night.

Donatas Motiejunas - FD 5500 DK 5400 DFSTR 3600
Mr. Safety himself, these days. Motiejunas has quietly secured himself 35 minutes per game in non-blowouts, and when he has minutes like these, paying on a $5,500 FanDuel price is going to be a breeze. Again, Golden State is a team that can depress fantasy scoring, but we're looking more at a case of inaccurate price than trying to has a few decimal places on their post defense or whatever. The Warriors may limit his ceiling, but he's still an easy double-up play.

Paul Millsap - FD 8100 DK 8500 DFSTR 7400
After sitting against the Sixers, Millsap has back to back games paying nearly 5x on this FanDuel price. He's crushed it on the defensive end (4 blocks and 5 steals in that time), and provided his usual assortment of boards and buckets. Chicago has a reputation for being tough down low, but they've actually gotten buried on the boards by opposing PFs this season. I think we see a very solid game for Millsap at a reasonable price, and think you can very much justify paying up from Motiejunas if you can afford it.

Also considered: Blake. He hasn't lit the fantasy world on fire recently, but he can absolutely get it done against Sac-town's PF potpourri.

Center

DeMarcus Cousins - FD 11500 DK 11200 DFSTR 9600
The Boogie Man. The world has taken notice - Boogie's new rotation has him seeing nearly 40 minutes per game. And he's facing the wildly overrated defensive duo of Blake and DeAndre down low. The Clips have allowed the 9th most fantasy points to opposing centers this season, and Boogie (as of this writing) has three straight games with sixty fantasy points. He's a man possessed. A Demon. A Devil. If you can afford to, play him. Everyone else will.

Chris Kaman - FD 4900 DK 4700 DFSTR 5500
Since moving to the starting lineup, Kaman has flirted with 6x on this FanDuel price on both occasions (and he's in the process of posting a nice line against the Spurs as I write this). Memphis is a truly bad match-up for opposing big men, but Kaman's case is a lot like other underpriced guys. When the price is wrong, it's wrong. If Kaman is going to play high 20s minutes, paying off these prices is a triviality.

Marc Gasol - FD 8300 DK 8300 DFSTR 7900
Well, I ignored the projection system when I made my picks last night - Gasol was listed among the top guys there. I didn't love the upside, you know? Well, you know what happened. He scored 50 fantasy points and was the best center going. So, I'm posting him here tonight. As much as I love Kaman's fantasy potential, he should be overwhelmed by Gasol on the boards and in the paint. It could be another huge night for the Grizzlies' prize Spaniard.

Also considered: Jusuf Nurkic.

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