Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 3/25/15

It seems like every team is playing twice today by how many games are in the FanDuel slate today, so these ought to be some fun picks with some tough choices. Wish me luck!

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Just a note: This is simply a HUGE slate. Not going to be able to list every relevant play today, so it might make a good day to grab a free three day trial of our projection system. Enjoy the picks!

Point Guards

Zach LaVine - FD 5100 DK 5100 DFSTR
As of this writing, it looks like Ricky Rubio is going to miss at least another game. You know what that means? I'm seeing dollar signs when I look at Zach LaVine squaring off against the Lakers. LaVine, like any rookie, has some seriously erratic components to his game, but most of those are priced into his already low price already. And what that price doesn't account for? The minutes, and the match-up. LaVine will likely play a 35-37 minute rotation against the Lakers' league-worst point guard defense (hi Jeremy Lin!), making him a must play. 6x points per dollar on this price is certainly possible, and might be probable.

Goran Dragic - FD 6900 DK 7000 DFSTR 6200
Dragic has two games in the last week where he's paid 6x points per dollar on these prices, and then 5x against Denver, and then a terrible game where they got dusted by freight-train Westbrook and the gang. In this game he'll be going up against the Celtics, who have allowed 5% more scoring and 4% more assists than league average to opposing point guards this season. Dragic is in the zone, he's playing tons of minutes, and the Heat need him. This should be a great performance.

Russell Westbrook - FD 13300 DK 13200 DFSTR 9400
You'll be able to afford him, because the punt possibilities on nights with this many games will afford you the possibility. And while I like both Dragic and LaVine quite a bit, it's going to be hard to justify grabbing any of the other big money guys when Westbrook is on the table at the potential multiplier he offers. He eased off the peddle a little bit in blowouts of the Heat and Lakers, but he won't have the same luxury against the Spurs - and the Thunder have shown that they're willing to trot him out there for 40+ minutes to get the wins they still desperately need. And with all due respect to Tony Parker, what's he supposed to do here? He can't stay in front of Russell. Another huge game, coming up.

Keep an eye on Kyle Lowry. If he's out, Greivis Vasquez becomes the play of the day at the position. Also, Lorenzo Brown! Minutes for miles if K-Mart is out again.

 

Shooting Guards

Dion Waiters - FD 4600 DK 5000 DFSTR 4000
Our projection system just can't get enough of Dion Waiters in the starting lineup at these prices, and he blew his price out of the water again against the Lakers on Tuesday night, putting up 30+ fantasy points on 35 minutes. There isn't a whole lot to break down when it comes to Waiters' matchups when it comes to these prices - if he's a starter, he'll get 35+ minutes. If he gets 35+ minutes, he's just not a sub-$5,000 player on FanDuel. Play him.

Tony Allen - FD 5100 DK 5300 DFSTR
Allen's minutes have ticked upward in the last month, and he's responded by crashing the boards and playing tenacious defense. He's averaged 8 boards and 3 steals a game in his last 5, and has been steadily scoring as well. The Cavs have allowed more fantasy points than league average to opposing shooting guards in every single fantasy category this season, including 8% more steals. I love Allen's "little bit of everything" game for double-up formats in particular, and think he has upside you can consider in larger tournaments as well.

Eric Bledsoe - FD 8700 DK 8200 DFSTR 7000
Bledsoe is locked into his 37 minute rotation right now, and he's been pretty much crushing it. It hasn't been just scoring, either. He's playing max-effort, handling the ball a ton, dishing assists, and crashing the boards. And in this game? He'll have his best match-up in a while. Sacramento has been ho-rren-dous against opposing two guards this season, allowing 14% more scoring than league average, and 9% more rebounds. A dream match-up for a player that's peaking, and he'll be a VERY heavy start industry wide tonight.

Also consider: Randy Foye.

 

 

Small Forwards

Omri Casspi - FD 3900 DK 3600 DFSTR 3500
Joe Ingles - FD 3500 DK 3200 DFSTR 3200
Punt party at small forward. Casspi paid better than 6x points per dollar in his role in the starting lineup, and while Ingles didn't enjoy quite the same success, he has put up similar multipliers in other games in the starting lineup this season. Either of these guys represents a great play if you can figure out how to spend your money well elsewhere, though chances are good you'll only be able to play one. If you do, I'd go with Casspi.

Jeff Green - FD 4900 DK 5800 DFSTR 4900
Another play based on increased opportunity due to injury, but Green is clearly a cut above the other two talent wise. He's also a cut above price wise, which is why he's not quite on the same level in terms of points per dollar upside. But still - two 30+ fantasy point performances in his last four games, and a game that will almost certainly be competitive against Cleveland, and I think Green will be out there for a ton of minutes once again. It's not an ideal match-up against LeBron and the Cavs (but they have allowed an above average amount of fantasy points to opposing SFs this year), but all we care about here is the opportunity. Given it's there, Green's a play.

P.J. Tucker - FD 5400 DK 5600 DFSTR 4400
Our projection system seems to love Tucker every single day, and today is no exception. Like others on this list, Tucker is playing a ton of minutes, and making the most of those that he's getting. He's playing incredible defense right now, and that defense has meant that his minutes downside is something like 34 minutes instead of his normal 37. Which is to say, Tucker's an incredibly safe cash game play against the same Kings that have allowed 8% more scoring than league average to opposing small forwards.

Keep an eye on the Kevin Martin situation. If he's out, Chase Budinger becomes a fantastic high-floor high ceiling play against a Lakers team that's allergic to defending any position on the court. And a bunch of other possible punts today - just keep an eye on Twitter while it all goes down.

 

Power Forwards

Kenneth Faried - FD 7000 DK 7400 DFSTR 5600
Faried was on fire before getting rested in the blow-out against the Magic, and I have no reason to believe that he won't pick up where he left off against the Sixers. The 76ers have actually been not horrible against opposing power forwards this season, but they have allowed an above average amount of steals, blocks, and rebounds, and they play a fast pace. I think the loosey goosey style will suit Faried perfectly, and this has all the makings of one of those games where he goes out and gets a zillion rebounds and looks twice as athletic as any player on the court.

Donatas Motiejunas - FD 6000 DK 6300 DFSTR
Motiejunas hasn't provided the explosive upside that it feels like he might have in him on these prices, but all that's done is kept his price very affordable. And, that said, he does have a 6x points per dollar game in his last 4, and has been 4.5x or better in each of those, so it's not exactly like he's a slouch. New Orleans has been very tough on opposing big men this season, but Motiejunas' price still doesn't reflect the fact that Jones is out and he's playing 38 minutes a night in close contests. The minutes shouldn't be at risk in this one, and I think we can rely on Motiejunas in cash games for sure.

Keep an eye on Marcus Morris. All comes down to whether Knight is playing, but if he isn't, Morris has been an animal on these prices. Also! Markieff Morris. He's playing a lot of minutes and really producing.

Also considered: Marvin Williams, if Zeller is out again. He hasn't been killing it, but with those minutes he's got a really high floor.

 

Center

Enes Kanter - FD 6900 DK 7200 DFSTR
Great Rapport with Westbrook right now, and he's crushed it in back to back games since returning from injury. Back to back games with 40+ fantasy points, and he's paid 5x on these prices in 6 of his last 7 games. San Antonio has been roughly league average against centers this season, but everything is firing off right now. He'll be a huge play tonight, and rightfully so.

Gorgui Dieng - FD 6700 DK 6400 DFSTR 5500
Mr. Dieng! With 16 blocks and 40+ minutes in his last 5 games, Dieng is a huge game waiting to happen against the Los Angeles Lakers of Los Angeles. There is literally no center depth behind him, and the minutes should be a guarantee. The Lakers have 10% more rebounds to opposing centers than league average, and this is a game that both teams might actually be competitive in. And, in case you missed it, Enes Kanter just put up 25 and 16 against them. I think Dieng will be a sure thing for 30+ fantasy points here, with upside for much more.

Also considered: Jusuf Nurkic. Minutes trending upward, and he's been paying these prices as is.
 

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