Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 3/27/15

A day off on Thursday, and another monstrous slate for Friday. Whew, this is getting exhausting! But YOU GUYS! Basketball season is almost over. Let's keep making hay while the sun is shining.

Ready to make the leap and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks? Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster.

Forget the salary caps by playing ScoreStreak. Get involved today by clicking the banner below!

Big Slate Disclaimer

We don't break down every single game, we try to give you the very best plays, in order, at each position. But on huge nights like tonight? We're largely splitting hairs between a ton of guys in similar price ranges. If you want a more precise look at the numbers we're using, it'd behoove you to grab a free three day trial of our projection system and see them for yourself!

Point Guards

Greivis Vasquez - FD 3900 DK 4400 DFSTR 4000
With Lowry looking at a likely continued absence, Vasquez has vaulted himself into "must play" territory while his price remains so low. He put up 7x points per dollar against the Bulls on Wednesday, and gets the very best point guard match-up in the league on Friday with Jeremy Lin and the Lakers. At these prices, the match-up is sort of neither here no there, just know that you're unlikely to find a value like this again this NBA season.

Tyreke Evans - FD 7600 DK 7600 DFSTR 6800
Aside from a bizarre aberration of a game against Golden State, Evans' usage has been up significantly recently (he's average 17 shots in his last 5 non-Golden State games). He's handling the ball a ton, and his price is off from earlier season highs. And this game? Not only does he have the "revenge game" thing going against Sacramento (if you care about such Voodoo), they've also allowed 5% more scoring and 10% more assists to opposing point guards this season. It's a great way to get a lot of money in on a guy who's already handling the ball a ton, and who will have an axe to grind.

Jeremy Lin - FD 5600 DK 5400 DFSTR 3100
Ever since he took Wayne Ellington's spot in the starting lineup, Lin has shown these prices to be criminal. He's taking nearly 14 shots per game with 6 assists per game in that time, and providing one of the highest floor experiences in daily fantasy sports. In this game he'll go up against Greivis Vasquez, and while Vasquez has been a nice value from a fantasy perspective, he's remained on the sidelines for much of his career due to his inability to defend the position. I expect another game like we've seen from Lin recently - high 20s to low 30s fantasy points, and lots of happy FanDuel and DraftKings owners.

Also considered: Damian Lillard, Trey Burke.

Shooting Guards

Elijah Millsap - FD 3600 DK 3200 DFSTR 3100
Millsap's played 30+ minutes in back to back games, and scored 23 fantasy points in each of them. On what's essentially a minimum salary, that's ridiculous production. The Nuggets have allowed 7% more scoring and 11% more rebounds to opposing small forwards this year as well. Millsap's the exact guy who's going to give you the salary room you need to play the more expensive options tonight, and you can expect him to be a HUGE start if Hayward is sitting once again.

James Harden - FD 11500 DK 11600 DFSTR 9200
And here's the guy you'll likely want to save up for. With Patrick Beverley out for an undisclosed period of time, the admittedly pricey Harden will be bringing the ball up the court for the foreseeable future. This means that, in all likelihood, we'll be getting his same shot volume to go with an increased amount of assists. Minnesota has allowed 5% more scoring and 12% more assists to opposing point guards as it is, and while Zach LaVine is a promising young talent, he won't be able to stay in front of Harden. This could be a monster game, if Minnesota doesn't get blown out instantly.

Lou Williams - FD 4700 DK 4500 DFSTR
Even at a conservative 26 minutes, our projection system thinks Williams is one of the very best plays of the day. And it makes sense - he'll log most of his minutes against either Jeremy Lin or Jordan Clarkson, neither of whom has a defensive bone in their bodies. I'll deploy Williams a little bit more cautiously that our projection system would suggest, because I just don't understand why he isn't getting more minutes with Lowry out, and I'm wondering what the Raptors' coaching staff is seeing that I'm not. Still, I thought you should be aware that Williams will likely be a huge play tonight.

Also considered: DeMar DeRozan
 

 

Small Forwards

Lance Thomas - FD 3800 DK 3500 DFSTR 3000
Thomas is terrible at real life basketball. Not exactly a ringing endorsement, I know. But these Knicks? Oh, man. They're redefining horrible, and Thomas is actually one of the guys who is able to get the ball in the air toward the rim. He took 15 shots in limited minutes in the Clippers blowout, and that's just a ton for what amounts to a minimum salary. To go with that, Boston is bad enough that the Knicks might be able to hang with them for a while at home on Friday. There are a TON of punt possibilities at small forward on Friday, but I'll likely headline with Thomas.

Trevor Ariza - FD 5800 DK 6200 DFSTR 4900
If you're looking for a good cash game play, look no further. With Harden taking even more of the ball handling duties, Ariza got a lot of great looks against the Pelicans on Wednesday, and continued to crush on what is looking like an increasingly ridiculous price for what he's doing. In his last 9 games, Ariza has put up 30+ fantasy points in 7 of them (including 2 40+ point performances). You just don't get that kind of production on these prices this late in the season, for the most part. And Minnesota? They've allowed 11% more scoring than league average to opposing small forwards this season. A great spot to get an already great value in a plus match-up.

Andrew Wiggins - FD 6000 DK 6500 DFSTR 5600
Here's a guy who our projection system loved for Wednesday, but didn't get included into the picks due to the general log-jam. But he's now playing so many minutes (last night's overtime notwithstanding) that it's too much to ignore. The Wolves just want to leave Wiggins out there and see what he can do, and, well, he's doing it. It's not nearly as good a match-up as it was with the Lakers, but it's still decent (Houston's about league average against the position), and the trajectory for Wiggins seems to be pointing upward again. This could be the lowest price we see on Wiggins for the rest of the season, and it might be time to capitalize.

Punt possibilities: Terrence Ross, Omri Casspi. Both are basically minimum guys, and getting a ton of minutes. But both kinda suck, also. Ross looked like he could put up 45 fantasy points in the first quarter of Wednesday's game, then disappeared.

Power Forwards

Derrick Favors - FD 7900 DK 8100 DFSTR 7700On a night where you can find punts all over the place, our projection system would have you believe that Favors is a guy you can justify spending slightly more on. With Hayward out of the lineup, Favors is seeing increased usage, and has put up 40+ fantasy points in each of his last 3 games. And Denver has struggled against opposing power forwards in every phase of the fantasy game this season, allowing a total of 5% more fantasy points than league average to opposing power forwards. I think Favors makes a fine play in all fantasy formats tonight.

Donatas Motiejunas - FD 6000 DK 6300 DFSTR
We're reaching the end of Motiejunas' insane value at these prices, with Dwight Howard now lurking. But the Rockets have said they'll be cautious with Howard at first (including skipping back to backs), so I think we can still count on Motie for 35+ minutes a night and his recently typical usage. Terrence Jones is the guy we'll need to look out for. When he's back, Motiejunas will take a dive. In the meantime, though, Donatas will enjoy a match-up with a Timberwolves team that has allowed 7% more fantasy points than league average to opposing power forwards, and should have yet another nice game.

Anthony Davis - FD 12400 DK 11200 DFSTR 9100
Again, on a day where there are so many super-cheap options, it will be hard to not get Davis in there against the Kings poo-poo platter of power forwards. Sacramento at large has also allowed 30% more steals and 30% more blocks than league average to opposing power forwards this season, so, there's that. Davis is also interesting because the Pelicans have clearly had some sort of meeting and let everyone know: get the big man the rock. He's shooting 21 shots per game in the month of March as compared to 17 per game for the rest of the season. It's looking like another monster game is brewing here.

A great punt play could be Tarik Black. He's played 30 minutes out of the starting lineup recently, and he's paying handsomely. The only reason I don't list him higher here is because we'll probably have to wait until mid-day on Friday to know for sure if he's starting again, but if he is, he's a great way to save a buck, and I like him quite a bit more than the guys listed in the small forwards punts, for instance.

Center

Center was tough sledding in a huge slate on Wednesday, and there are likewise not a ton of amazing options tonight. Brace yourselves.
Jonas Valanciunas - FD 6000 DK 5700 DFSTR 5500
As I looked over the group of centers before me on this slate, I kept writing (with a real pen) asterisks next to various guys' names. Valancunias' asterisks were the least concerning, to me. His minutes are trending upward, and he even played 27 minutes in a blowout against the Knicks three games ago. The Lakers are a plus match-up for opposing big men, including allowing 10% more rebounds (Valancunias' specialty) than league average to opposing centers this season. The price is reasonable, meaning you can escape a tough position relatively cheaply as well. All in all, I'd say Jonas is the highest floor guy of the night, with some chance for upside as well.

Brook Lopez - FD 7800 DK 7100 DFSTR 6600
The last four games have been nothing short of an eruption for Lopez - he's average FIFTY fantasy points on 37 minutes a game, and has looked like the guy the Nets thought they'd have when Lopez first joined the league. And while Mozgov has represented an improvement for the Cavs when it comes to interior defense, they've stilled allowed 4% more scoring than league average to opposing centers this season. The elephant in the room is that Lopez has a pretty crappy game against the Cavs in his last time out, but he wasn't bad on a per minute basis, and chances are good that the Cavs won't win by 25 yet again in this game on Brooklyn's turf.

Gorgui Dieng - FD 6700 DK 6700 DFSTR 5500
Dieng buried us on Wednesday in a great match-up with the Lakers, so this recommendation comes less than enthusiastically. But the bottom line is this - if he's going to play 35+ minutes against the Rockets, he should have a super high floor. I get that he didn't against the Lakers, but that was a weird game from the word "Go" - he had 5 turnovers in the first quarter. I get your hesitancy if you want to avoid him, but there's something to be said for buying low here.
 

Be sure to try out a free 3-day trial to the projection system that helps produce these picks for the NBA! And check out our free NBA ebook below.