Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 4/9/15

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On to the hoops!

Point Guards

Goran Dragic - FD 6600 DK 6800 DFSTR
One of the easiest plays on the board for me, tonight. If you think Derrick Rose is going to go all out on defense in a less than mandatory game, here, you're insane. And Dragic just torched the Hornets for better than 6x points per dollar in his last game. For a guy who's supposed to be dealing with injuries, he sure looked like it was all-systems go en route to 28/4/5 against Kemba Walker. On a short slate, you don't question situations like this. You take advantage of them.

Damian Lillard - FD 8300 DK 7900 DFSTR
It's a huge drop off from Dragic to anyone else. Basically, you're deciding between Lillard and Curry. Curry played well against New Orleans (and lots of minutes, to boot), but Lillard's minutes seem far more secure. He also showed some serious ball-dominant tendencies against Brooklyn (26 shots!), which is what we love to see this time of year. I actually might like Curry better from a GPP standpoint just because Lillard is so poor defensively, but if you're looking for safety tonight, Lillard is my guy.

Keep an eye on Derrick Rose. If he sits, Aaron Brooks blasts pasts Lillard and Curry easily, for me.

 

Shooting Guards

Dwyane Wade - FD 7200 DK 7200 DFSTR
With the Heat battling for dear life, it's hard to imagine that Wade won't demand the ball and win or lose this thing on his own shoulders. He took 103 shots in the last 5 games where he played starters' minutes. This will continue against Chicago, and while it's a bad match-up, Wade is priced something like 10% too low if he's going to shoot 20 shots a game. This is one of the easiest plays on the board, tonight.

Jimmy Butler - FD 8400 DK 7800 DFSTR
On a night riddled with uncertainty, give me the guy who is going to get his minutes. Butler's been locked into high 30s/low 40s minutes, and I don't think Rose's semi-injured reappearance will cut into his usage very much. Wade's going all out on the offensive end, and while the Heat have been tough on opposing SGs this season, I still think Butler is one of the safer mid/high tier plays of the night.

Tyler Johnson - FD 3700 DK 3000 DFSTR
It looks like Chalmers will miss Thursday's game, and if he does, Tyler Johnson will be one of the few punts going on a super short slate. Absolutely worth a look, because let's be serious, it's pretty damned nice to get 25 minutes of anything for a minimum salary on a 2 game slate.

Small Forwards

Luol Deng - FD 5600 DK 5200 DFSTR
We gave you Deng the last time around, and he delivered exactly what we expected he would - about 30 fantasy points. He did it a little bit differently than usual, going heavy on the scoring and a little light on the rebounding, but the points were there. The Heat's startling lack of depth means guys like Deng are going to see every minute he can possibly handle without dying mid-game now that every game is basically do or die. Luol plays 40 minutes here, and is the small forward play of the day by a mile. [insert obligatory revenge game comment]

James Ennis - FD 3800 DK 3100 DFSTR
Listen, I understand you might not be able to play 16 Heat players on your teams today. But Ennis is a guy you should really take a hard look at. He's playing a steady diet of 27 minutes per game, and paid 6x+ and 5x+ points per dollar in each of his last two games. Small Forward SUCKS tonight, also. Batum and Green both have bad match-ups against each other, and no one else even plays. I would love to play all the Heat guys I've recommended so far, but small forward is so damned bad that it's hard to picture playing anyone else and feeling good about it.

 

Power Forwards

Pau Gasol - FD 8800 DK 8200 DFSTR
POW! Pau. Gasol has averaged 11/13 with 3 blocks in two match-ups earlier this season with the Heat, which doesn't look like much, until you see some serious run bad in the field goal percentages (33%). And he's not facing the same Heat team now - he'll get what's left of Udonis Haslem. Pau will play his 34 minutes here and take advantage of a mismatch on the defensive end, and his daily fantasy basketball owners will cheer. Loudly.

LaMarcus Aldridge - FD 9000 DK 8800 DFSTR
Aldridge put up 26/13 against Golden State in their last match-up, which was, admittedly, in November. But still! Our projection system doesn't even know what he did against the Warriors, it just sees the opportunity and the match-up. If his 37 minute rotations against the Pelicans and Clippers are any indication, Aldridge should get his full run against the Warriors in this one. And if he does, he has a nice match-up with an under-sized Green or a less than fast Bogut. Either way, Aldridge's spot up game and very affordable price for what he can do make him a great bigger money option tonight.

Also considered: Udonis the Adonis Haslem. But you can't play so many Heat, baby.

 

Center

Andrew Bogut - FD 5500 DK 5200 DFSTR
Bogut has crushed Portland this year. 11/14/5 with a block and a steal per game in two games. That's way more than what you need to pay off these low prices. Sure, Bogut doesn't play a ton of minutes, but he does play more against teams that don't lose by 500 to the Warriors. The Blazers could theoretically not lose by that much. Bogut can crash the boards against Portland's front court, and should have another fantastic game against them here.

Joakim Noah - FD 6500 DK 6000 DFSTR
If you are spooked by Bogut's minutes, or just have a few extra bucks to spend at center, consider Joakim Noah. Noah's locked in to 31-33 minutes right now, and put up two great games against the Pistons and the Cavs before his dud against Orlando. What I love most about Noah here is the match-up. His max-energy effort should be simply annoying to the bruised or bad front court players of the Heat, and a double double with 30+ fantasy points is absolutely in play here.

Also considered: Hassan Whiteside, but again - too many Heat. But our system does like him on a points per dollar basis if he gets his minutes. Doesn't feel safe to me, though, given the hand concerns.

 

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