Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 6/18/15

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Pitchers

Early
Woof, good luck with pitchers on this slate. It's a rough one. I hate everything about it. There's little nuance going on here. It's all about stacking hitters while hoping and praying on arms.

Bud Norris - FD 6800 DK 7600
The good news here is the Phillies rank dead last in the league against righty pitching on the season with a team .272 wOBA and .620 OPS. They are an awful hitting bunch with almost no pop anywhere in the lineup. The bad news is Bud Norris kind of blows. So there's that. Norris can get an occasional strikeout and his 4.60 xFIP is much lower than his mid 8's ERA. So there's that. Look, at the outset I warned you about pitching. Going cheap with Norris allows you to stack Coors, Chase Field or Orioles in Camden Yards.

Jaime Garcia - FD 7600 DK 9300
The Twins are a middle of the road bunch against lefty pitching this season and lack a certain amount of pop in the lineup. They don't strikeout a ton, but the ballpark here will depress some power. Garcia's been solid enough with an xFIP under three to go with a very solid 5:1 K:BB ratio. As I said with Norris, you are going cheap with pitching today and he could hang around long enough in this game to tally up enough points for cash games.

Late
Danny Salazar - FD 9100 DK 9400
If you are looking to shoot straight up K upside then Salazar could be your guy. The Cubs strike out a ton, 25.4% of the time against righties. They and the Astros are duking it out for most K’s in the league in that split and everyone else is well behind. Salazar meanwhile has been a strikeout machine on the season with a 11.40 K/9 to go with a 2.75 xFIP. He’s simply been one of the best pitchers in the American League though the ERA is about ¾ a run worse than his xFIP. He stands to really dial up the punchouts here. I love the upside, but I understand the risk. The Cubs can put up runs in bunches. That being said, it's almost Salazar or bust for me on this slate. I'm willing to live with the possible downside because I think the upside is so great. It's not necessarily a comfortable position, but it's worth the payoff. The other issue is top arms on this slate like Cole and Archer have terrible matchups at crazy prices. Would love to here who others are going with on this slate, but I'm rolling the dice with Salazar.

Consider Doug Fister and Ryan Vogelsong as possible cheaper arms on DraftKings.

 

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Catchers

Early
Welington Castillo - FD 2200 DK 2600
He's been pretty great (for a catcher) against lefty pitching in his career. Castillo owns a 128 wRC+ and .827 OPS in that split, more than viable at these complete punt prices. I don't want to skimp everywhere on this slate, but he is facing C.J. Wilson in a great hitter's park. Wilson isn't a bum, but the price and platoon advantage work for Castillo.

Consider Evan Gattis

Late
Buster Posey - FD 3600 DK 4300
Couple of things about Posey. First off, he's walking more than he's striking out this season. That, in and of itself, is a spectacular feat. Not many hitters can pull it off. Secondly, as most of us know, he has an extreme platoon split against lefties. Dude's rocked a .953 OPS against lefties for his career and today faces Michael Montgomery who is trying very hard to fool you with the sub 2 ERA. Ignore it. The xFIP is much, much higher. Like in the mid 4's higher. I love the moderate discount you are getting on Posey in this matchup.

Jonathan Lucroy - FD 2700 DK 3700
Writing about him a lot lately, but the price just isn't moving much. Blame that on some BABIP issues as he's struggling with luck right now. It's 50 points less than his career average. Today he'll have a chance to put more balls in play against Jeremy Guthrie and the 3.99 K/9 rate. Love Lucroy hitting in the two hole and getting more plate expectation than many other catchers.

 

 

First base

Early
Chris Davis - FD 3500 DK 4500
Sean O'Sullivan is hot garbage and you are going to want a fair amount of exposure to guys facing this loser of an arm. Sean-y O strikes out less than 3.5 batters per nine, walks almost as many and has an xFIP in the mid 5's. If you can get Crush against non K arms in solid hitter's parks then the power expeectation goes way up. He will be a near universal play for me at these prices.

Consider Paul Goldschmidt against the lefty even at a huge tag.

Late
Adrian Gonzalez - FD 3200 DK 4400
After a torrid start, Adrian has cooled off a great deal in the short term. The OPS has dropped each month now that he's not hitting a home run every single at bat. But it's also caused his price to come plummeting back down to Earth. That's good news as it's very much a time to buy. Colby Lewis just exudes averageness in every facet of his pitching game and is prone to the home run. You no longer have to break the bank for Adrian and are getting him at a discount, especially on FanDuel.

Storngly consider Lucas Duda 

 

Second base

Early
Kolten Wong - FD 3000 DK 4000
Wong's turning in a solid season out of the leadoff spot with an .800 OPS. He doesn't strike out a ton and probably won't today against the likes of Big Mike Pelfrey, he of the 4.33 K/9 and mid 4's xFIP. Of all the ballparks on this slate, this one's one of the worst for hitters, but it also means the prices haven't faced a massive correction like they have for other players. Wong's a nice value considering the matchup.

Consider Jimmy Paredes still coming on the cheap.

Late
Robinson Cano - FD 2200 DK 3500
Well, it's finally happened and to quote Will Ferrell's Alex Trebek on SNL, "And we've reached a new low." Cano is now a minimum player on FanDuel. I'm not sure what to do with this information. He is literally as cheap as a player can get. The matchup against Vogelsong is fine enough though if you are looking for a bounce back in power this isn't the park for it. His K's are way up though the BABIP is down. It's a tough sell because the numbers are so gruesome, but he's still hitting third in the lineup. No other min-priced punt can claim that slot in the batting order. I don't know. Feels dirty but he's a punt play. What the hell is going on with this guy?

If you aren't buying a ticket on the Cano Death Train then consider Ian Kinsler or Jeff Baker

 

Shortstop

Early
Erick Aybar - FD 2300 DK 3400
Starting to look very possible we will recommend him every single day until the end of time. But what can we do here? He's a min-priced shortstop hitting leadoff in front of Mike Trout. The latter piece isn't as important as the former with his plate appearance expectation far outstripping most others at his position. No different today and he gets the bonus of facing Allen Webster, a guy I'll get to later with some picks for the outfield. (Spoiler alert: Webster sucks)

Consider J.J. Hardy

Late
Jose Reyes - FD 3800 DK 4600
I'm tempted to spend all the way up for Reyes today simply because the rest of the options just appear so freaking unappealing. Understand, this would be a massive overpay, but you can save in a lot of other positions and Reyes is by far the best offensive bat coming out of shortstop on this slate. It's just that price making somewhat worried. Many of the other shortstops who see significant playing time are either buried in the bottom of their lineups, face tough pitching matchups or both. Reyes gets Bartolo Colon who's no pushover, but the contact should be there to put speed in play. I don't love it, but making a case for many other shortstops here is a rough shout.

Consider Alcides Escobar

 

Third base

Early
Matt Carpenter - FD 3500 DK 4300
Manny Machado - FD 4000 DK 4900
I'm putting them together for a couple of reasons. They both have fantastic matchups against Mike Pelfrey and Sean O'Sullivan respectively. The prices are comparable, though Carpenter's a big more affordable. With Machado you pay more for the power upside, but both make strong cash game plays at their prices. This is a situation in which I think it makes sense to round out the rest of the lineup and see where you are left for third base. That's a good situation because it allows you to make decisions elsewhere knowing the money at third base should work. Not having to spend at pitching helps this a great deal.

Late
Mike Moustakas - FD 2800 DK 4000
I really love the season he's putting together with an OPS over .800 and a greatly reduced strikeout rate. This is what we've been waiting for with Moose. Hitting second in this Royals' lineup is suiting him nicely and he's making the most of the opportunity. Jimmy Nelson's a fine enough pitcher with a healthy K rate. But third base has you running into all kinds of matchup issues so you really need to pick your poison. I'll take Moustakas for these prices.

Joey Gallo - FD 3300 DK 3200
Our system wants you playing him though I'm skeptical at least on FanDuel. On DraftKings, he's a full green light even with the thought that he might strike out 4 times in this game. The price there is simply too low and you need to take the chance even against Greinke. The latter isn't a complete strikeout ace, so don't get fooled into thinking Gallo's totally overmatched. The price is much closer on FanDuel where I think Moustakas is safer.

 

Outfield

Early
Mike Trout - FD 5200 DK 5300
Kole Calhoun - FD 2600 DK 4000
Ooh, I am loving these plays today. Whereas the Astros and Rockies bats see a big bump in salary today because of Coors Field, you are getting two hitters in a solid hitter's park against a very weak arm in Allen Webster. Webster has a career 5.06 xFIP and walks almost as many batters as he strikes out. This one could get ugly. I love not having to pay a premium on the bats just because of the ballpark. And while Chase is no Coors, it does allow well above average power to both sides of the plate. Calhoun is a fantastic deal on DraftKings and I like getting money in on both guys.

Keep an eye on the Orioles' outfield leading into game time. If Adam Jones is back then I really like him in the middle of that lineup. If Travis Snider still rolls in the two hole then he makes a solid plug and play. But the Orioles do switch their lineup around some, so take a peek before lineups lock.

Late
Joc Pederson - FD 3800 DK 3800
Like his teammate Adrian Gonzalez, Joc has entered a modest cool down period after a time where it appeared everything he touched would turn into a dong. That surely wouldn't sustain, but his price is coming down at a rapid pace. DraftKings I see him almost a must play from the leadoff spot. And it's close for me on FanDuel. Even with a crazy amount of luck, this is still a dude hitting leadoff with a ton of power upside. The speed is there as well and Colby Lewis can let up some power. Solid cash game play and you are buying low here.

Gerardo Parra - FD 2600 DK 3300
If he's still hitting leadoff then consider getting Parra into lineups against Guthrie. His skills are necessarily refined, but they don't have to be at these prices, in this matchup all while getting an extra plate appearance because someone decided his 4% walk rate played in the leadoff role. No it doesn't make sense to have him there, but we don't care. Buy at a leadoff premium against Jeremy Guthrie.

Curtis Granderson - FD 2900 DK 3800
Love getting cheaper bats in the Rogers Centre whenever possible. Granderson hitting leadoff against R.A. Dickey has some significant power upside. Dickey is struggling to strike anyone out this season as evidenced by a career low 5.66 K/9. His xFIP's above 4.50 and he just generally stinks. Granderson is a three true outcome guy, a skillset that plays well against a pitcher like R.A.

Strongly consider Carlos Gomez and
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