Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 6/20/15 - Late Slate

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Pitchers

Corey Kluber - FD 11000 DK 10400
His last two starts weren't exactly stellar with the one in Seattle against the Mariners particularly dumbfounding considering they are one of the worst teams in the league against righty pitching. I suppose we can forgive him some for the game against the Tigers, though not much. I am right back on the Kluber wagon today though against the Rays who rank in the bottom third of the league against righty pitching. They strike out 21% of the time while sporting only a .678 wOBA. Kluber's peripherals are nails with a 6:1 K:BB ratio while striking out more than 10 batters per nine. His 2.63 xFIP is nearly a full run lower than the mid 3's ERA. You are paying a premium on FanDuel, but the DraftKings price is a near no-brainer as far as I'm concerned.

Taijuan Walker - FD 7800 DK 7400
More of a tournament play for the strikeout upside. The Astros go down on strikes more than 25% of the time against righty pitching. Now granted, when they aren't striking out, they are having a lot of success in this split so don't consider this a safe play. Walker can get strikeouts though, averaging almost one per inning. His xFIP's a full run lower than the 5.00 ERA and he gets a fantastic pitcher's park to throw in.

Strongly consider John Lackey

 

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Catchers

Victor Martinez - FD 3100 DK 3400
If we can assume the injuries are behind him now that he's off the DL, then I am going to start rolling V-Mart again with a vengeance. He was running something horrible in BABIP before the injury and was still walking more than he was striking out. He's hitting behind Miggy which I suppose will always have benefits and has Yankee Staidum's short porch in right to look forward to. Martinez really shouldn't even qualify at catcher anymore on FanDuel, and yet there he is. The DraftKings price for first base is also well worth it as he's coming discounted there even with the positional difference.

Derek Norris - FD 3000 DK 3800
Don't let Robbie Ray's 1.06 ERA fool you in any way. His xFIP is more than three runs higher and just generally stinks. Ray doesn't strike anyone out and Norris is a lefty killer. Derek typically hits in the two hole against lefties and has spent the better part of the last couple of seasons laying waste to southpaws. Just this season he has a 149 wRC+ and .382 wOBA in that split. Those numbers are in line with his career averages. I suspect he's a very popular play today.

 

 

First base

David Ortiz - FD 2800 DK 4300
You want to keep running him out there right? Good, me too. Mostly only looking his way on FanDuel where the price continues to sit too low even if you think he's quasi-cooked. I'm still a fan of getting Papi in against low K pitchers like Edinson Volquez who only puts down about seven batters per nine and walks more than three. Papi's struggled for sure, but I still think there's life left in the bat if the BABIP can round out some and he turns on a fastball or two. He's not elite anymore, but for this price I think you can still play him.

Lucas Duda - FD 3300 DK 4600
Duda's putting together a solid season with a high .800's OPS and 146 wRC+. He's not in the top tier of first basemen, but he isn't priced like one either. The .216 ISO has him up there in terms of power expectation and I like the matchup against Williams Perez and the 4.06 xFIP. Duda is the kind of midrange salary play that is sometimes tough to find to fill your roster out. I like the matchup and the power upside potential is there.

 

Second base

Kolten Wong - FD 2800 DK 3900
DFS is a funny thing. It really brings out aspects of your short term memory you never thought you'd access. Take Wong last night. He homers in his first at bat and I love the guy. Then he strikes out with the bases loaded later in the contest and I'm losing my mind. Such is the nature of this thing. He was in all of my lineups last night and I think he'll be right back there tonight. Nice matchup against Harang in Citizens Bank Park. Wong's putting together a solid season in the leadoff spot with a .340 wOBA and 117 wRC+. Love him setting the table and his price is too low on both sites.

Chase Utley - FD 2200 DK 3200
Will BABIP effect this guy all season long? It's getting a little ridiculous right now with the number sitting at .188 (worst in the league). It's an absurdly low number that simply can't sustain (though I guess stranger things have happened). John Lackey's an average pitcher with a 3.98 xFIP and sub 7 per 9 K rate. Buying Utley at the minimums is fine enough considering his extreme bad luck so far this season.

 

Shortstop

Francisco Lindor - FD 2300 DK 3700
Been around for about a minute and already hitting second for the Indians. Lindor isn't a great hitter. He may not end up being even a good major league hitter. But the Indians want him high in that lineup and we will take that all day long at these prices. He needs to make contact and get on base to have any real upside, but in terms of expected value, that slot in the order vaults him to near the top of the value list among shortstops. It's a fickle position with much to hate. This guy coming at the minimum against Erasmo Ramirez is more than worth the shot.

Xander Bogaerts - FD 2500 DK 3500
If the goal is getting Kluber in the lineup then you will need all the savings you can get. Go cheap at shortstop my friends, go cheap. Much like Lindor above, there isn't much to get excited about with Xander except him not being relegated to the bottom of the lineup. His .700-ish OPS isn't terrible for the position and he's really cut down on his strikeouts this season. Safe enough considering, but nothing to go over the moon about.

 

Third base

Chase Headley - FD 2400 DK 3900
He's only in play for me if he's hitting second in the lineup, but if that's where Girardi slots him then Headley makes a fine enough cash game play. He doesn't offer a ton of power upside, but Alfredo Simon isn't the 2.58 ERA guy you see on paper. The xFIP is more than 1.5 runs behind that and he doesn't strike out more than seven batters an inning. Headley's kind of just a guy, but the ballpark power playing to right gives the power a little boost and he's coming so cheap that you aren't taking on a ton of risk.

Will Middlebrooks - FD 2200 DK 3400
It's a righty Padre kind of day around here. Middlebrooks can really only hit lefty pitching and is running super bad in that split this year with a .200 BABIP. He's bound for some regression though and has been above average in that platoon for his career. He gets the bump of a solid hitter's park in Chase Field against the middle lefty Robbie Ray. Like Headley, you are getting Middlebrooks on the very cheap which lessens his downside considerably. I see him more as a GPP play because power is the name of his game with a ton of strikeouts thrown in to drive you crazy.

 

Outfield

Justin Upton - FD 3400 DK 4800
Matt Kemp - FD 2800 DK 4700
Tale of two different kind of plays here. Upton will be a staple in most of my lineups. He's made a career off hitting lefty pitching. Dude's posted a .912 OPS and 148 wRC+ in that split for his career and is really the thing that keeps him around the middle of the order. His numbers this season are fine enough I suppose, but the boost he's getting today hitting in Chase Field against Robbie Ray make him a fantastic play on this slate. Tag's getting up there on DraftKings but I think you can swing it. Kemp on the other hand is living the nightmare. He's been abysmal and there doesn't seem to be a ton of hope with the guy. If he's hitting cleanup then I think you take a chance on him on FanDuel. I don't think I'd do it on DraftKings as too much is going wrong for the guy to outlay that kind of money. I mean his OPS is less than .650 right now. Yikes.

Nelson Cruz - FD 3100 DK 4500
Mark Trumbo - FD 2500 DK 3500
Dallas Keuchel's putting together a solid season, but these guys hit lefty pitching so well that I think you can take a chance on either of them for their respective prices. Cruz is destroying southpaws this season with a nutso (small sample size) 294 wRC+ and 1.449 OPS. Of course that's a lot of run hot, but he has killed lefties for his career. Trumbo meanwhile has an OPS in the mid .800's for his career in this split (much higher this season) and a 125 wRC+. These guys are both extreme platoon guys and I don't mind playing them against an above average arm because of their success hitting lefties.

Consider Anthony Gose and Alex Gordon

 

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