Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 6/25/15

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Pitchers

Early Slate
Jon Lester - FD 8900 DK 9300
Lester's a weird guy to root for. Not in an actual fan sense (though that might be the case) but from a DFS standpoint because it often feels like you're living on a high wire act for a whole game. But he's definitely a guy to consider on this slate. Lester's been a solid pitcher this season with a 3.27 xFIP riding about a half run under his ERA. He faces a Dodgers team ranking in the bottom third of the league against lefties on the season and striking out more than 20% of the time in that split. Where the Dodgers really fall off is the bottom of the order and that's where Lester will make his bones today. Again, he can be tough to root for especially when the pitch counts start running high, but he's the best option on this slate.

Chris Heston - FD 7400 DK 7500
I get that he pitched the no hitter a few weeks back. That isn't why he's getting the nod tonight. He's just got a good matchup and should be in line for some solid numbers tonight. His peripherals are decent this season with a 3.5:1 K:BB this season to go with a 3.34 xFIP. He's just a solid pitcher who faces Padres team striking out more than 22% of the time against righties this season. The ballpark in San Fran helps reduce power all the way around and Heston should be set for a decent line. Gets knocked a bit having to face Shields so the win expectation is lower. But overall I like his chances for a nice line.

Consider James Shields

Late Slate
Lance Lynn - FD 8900 DK 9200
He’s striking out out more than a batter an inning this season which represents a fairly massive jump from what dude was chucking last season. Lynn’s seen his K rate increase about 25% in a season, from 8 K’s per nine to 9.5. That kind of jump isn’t necessarily unheard of, but it’s rare for a pitcher with as much service time as Lynn. He’s getting more swings and misses in the strike zone and the biggest change in his pitch profile is he’s throwing the slider much more effectively. It’s been a great pitch for him this season and he’s simultaneously cut back on the curveball. These changes have helped him become one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball. He has a great matchup Thursday against the Marlins who rank in the bottom third of the league against righties and strike out almost 21% of the time.

Consider Doug Fister

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Catchers

Early Slate
Victor Martinez - FD 3400 DK 4000
He only qualifies at catch on FanDuel, but there you can make a case for getting him into your lineups. He's manhandled lefty pitching over the last season with an OPS over 1.100 and a ridiculous .473 wOBA. He's just such a beast in this split. Carlos Rodon does dial up the K's in games but also walks a ton of batters. V-Mart is a very tough punch out for lefties with a 7.9 K% over the last season or so. He's tough to put down and is in a nice situation in this matchup. Even at first base on DraftKings he's a solid deal.

Stephen Vogt - FD 3600 DK 4300
Vogt's crushing a .251 ISO this season which surely isn't sustainable. That being said, dude's shown a lot of success against righties for the last year plus. his .368 wOBA and high .800's OPS point to a dude getting it done in this platoon. He faces Colby Lewis, the very definition of average, in a great hitter's park. I know this seems like a lot to pay for a catcher but Vogt has the right matchup on this slate and you won't have to pay a ton for pitching.

Late Slate
Evan Gattis - FD 3400 DK 4400
I'm usually only targeting him against lefties, but this baby slate means playing the big money guys and Gattis can do damage when guys like Adam Warren are on the mound. Dude K's less than six batters be nine and has an xFIP over four. Again, I like Gattis much more from the other side of the split, but you aren't paying for pitching and he's the best offensive catcher going on this slate.

 

First base

Early Slate
Lucas Duda - FD 3000 DK 4600
Miller Park is one of the best places on Earth for lefties to go and hit for power. It's practically a vacation for these guys as it plays only slightly worse than Coors and Yankees Stadium. Duda is a power first guy who, though he's hitting lefties better this season, is much better against righties in the aggregate. Taylor Jungmann (one of my favorite last names in baseball) isn't a total pushover, but doesn't dial up elite K levels. That's good news for Duda who could be in line for a power line today.

Adam LaRoche - FD 2400 DK 3500
I know, I know. You are getting tired of me putting him up here. But yesterday we had him as a top value play for first place and he went 3-4 with a dong for good measure. Laroche of course won't do that every day, but he comes so cheap for a guy hitting cleanup and a .371 wOBA against righties over the last year or so. Alfredo Simon is a mid 4's xFIP guy with a low K rate. The K's are Laroche's Achille's Heel so getting him against a weaker arm is ideal.

David Ortiz - FD 2900 DK 4300
Still very much buying at these prices now that the power doesn't seem completely sapped.

Late Slate
Mark Teixeira - FD 3400 DK 4400
Tex hasn't put up great numbers in his splits against lefties over the last year, but that's primarily a BABIP issue with the number coming in around .222 over this year and last. That kind of bad luck crushes a guy like Teixeira who's dominated lefty pitching for his career with a .912 OPS and 139 wRC+ on that platoon. Keuchel is no pushover, but he isn't an elite K guy and the ballpark boosts power for righty hitters.

Consider Pedro Alvarez

 

Second base

Early Slate
Ian Kinsler - FD 2900 DK 4200
His price has really fallen off, especially on FanDuel. A lot of that is thanks to an almost complete power outage. He's got only one home run on the season even though the batted ball profile doesn't look like a total disaster. The LD% is up a decent amount (not necessarily a bad thing) and the IFFB% is down (a good thing). But of course the ISO's taken a hit and so has the pricing. I like these tags against Rodon today and Kinsler is a solid cash game play considering his slot in the lineup. I'm willing to take with a grain of salt the power numbers (though it's getting tough) and putting him up there as a safe play.

Ben Zobrist - FD 3400 DK 4700
Continues to hit in the middle of the lineup for the A's and though I think the DraftKings price has gotten a little ridiculous for his skillet, this is a dude who walks way more than he strikes out (11% compared to 8%, one of the best ratios in the majors) and that kind of safety is worth a decent amount. Zobrist doesn't have enormous upside, but he makes up for it by not completely crushing you.

Rougned Odor - FD 2500 DK 3600
Ooh, can he please, oh please hit leadoff again? I know it isn't likely but if he's setting the table again tonight then you need to have him on your radar. Odor isn't a good hitter of course. I won't make the case there. But a punt priced player hitting in the number one spot raises the floor all kinds of high. Good ballpark for putting up runs and even against Sonny Gray I'd play it at the price point.

Late Slate
Kolten Wong - FD 2900 DK 3800
Multiple days in a row recommending this guy and the reasoning still sticks. He's hitting leadoff for a decent enough offensive club and making the most of it in that role. He's increased his walk rate some this season and getting the OPS to creep toward .800. Of course the big value add is his slot in the lineup and though I don't necessarily love the ballpark he's going in today, Dan Haren isn't a pitcher we shy away from on a slate.

Consider Neil Walker

 

Shortstop

Early Slate
Troy Tulowitzki - FD 4400 DK 5500
Going to cost you for sure. But Tulo gonna Tulo and he's had more than enough success against righties for his career to consider him here. Tulo really crushes lefties but I don't mind him here. Rubby de la Rosa's run bad this season making for an elevated ERA, but this is Coors we are talking about. You can't make mistakes here. Tulo's price on FanDuel is more than fair. It's a little closer on DraftKings.

Ian Desmond - FD 2300 DK 3700
Look, we know Desmond's primary issue is striking out like there's some kind of clause in his contract that rewards such behavior. I doubt that kind of incentive exists and yet here we are with his batter profile. Good news is he's a fairly platoon neutral guy going up against Matt Wisler, a sort-of prospect coming off a minor league stint in which he didn't necessarily blow the doors off batters. If you can get Desmond in a spot where K's aren't the primary issue then he offers some value at these low prices. Wouldn't hate the guy if he'd start stealing a base or two either.

Starlin Castro - FD 2400 DK 3800
He stinks now. So that's a knock against the guy and it's isnt' good. But Castro continues hitting just below the middle of the order for the Cubs and is just a shade of his career BABIP average which has caused a slight blip in his OPS. He's grounding out a lot more now, a disturbing trend, but the price has dropped to the buy point even against a righty. Understand that one most days with shortstop we are just looking for a guy who won't suck the life out of your soul.

Consider J.J. Hardy

Late Slate
Shortstop on this baby slate is about as bad as it gets. I'm not even going to write one of these losers up because it'd be an exercise in futility. Go cheap or go home. You can consider whoever starts for Pittsburgh or overpaying for Jhonny Peralta. It's bad, believe me.

Third base

Early Slate
God I hate this position on this slate. It's a disaster. I struggled with anyone to consider safe for the price.
Kris Bryant - FD 4000 DK 5000
Don't think I'm going all the way up for him on DraftKings today even with pitching coming somewhat cheap. And Bryant's been much better for his career against lefty pitching (even with the small sample size). But I think you are getting him in a decent spot against Carlos Frias who doesn't strike a lot of batters out. Bryant's primary issue is the punch out and when he isn't facing elite level swing and miss guys there's a shot for power upside. He has a .362 wOBA and 128 wRC+ in that limited split so far this season, more than acceptable going into this matchup.

Conor Gillaspie - FD 2200 DK 3000
Only fire this bullet if he's hitting second in the lineup again. Gillaspie's an above average hitter against righties over the last year or two with a 112 wRC+ in that platoon. That, of course, isn't a high-flying number but it gets the job done for a mid-priced guy if said guy all of a sudden finds himself hitting second for the squad. Again, Alfredo Simon isn't any great shakes on the mound.

Late Slate
Matt Carpenter - FD 3500 DK 4300
Look, you aren't paying for pitching on this slate so loading up your lineup with the biggest money guys at a position isn't necessarily the worst option in the world. Carpenter is one such play and I think hell be one of the biggest starts on the slate. It's mostly by default though there is a statistical case to be made for the guy. He's well above average against righty pitching for the last season or so and is walking as much as he's striking out (14% for each). Dan Haren is a reverse splits pitcher but it isn't enough to dissuade me from Carpenter.

Outfield

Early Slate
A.J. Pollock - FD 4500 DK 4800
Yasmany Tomas - FD 3600 DK 4400
Haven't recommended these guys so far in their time living in Coors because I thought the price didn't match the expected output. But that changes today. Both are facing the lefty Jorge de la Rosa, and though the latter's K rate looks solid for this season Pollock is a dude who crushes lefty pitching and Tomas is priced well enough for the situation. The former's splits over the last year or so are crazy with a .917 OPS and .395 wOBA in that platoon. He's got big upside in this matchup and I'm willing to go up for his salary today. The latter is a safe enough play considering the price and ballpark though man do I wish he still fully qualified at third.

Josh Reddick - FD 3000 DK 4400
All of sudden you can't strike the guy out. After a career of striking out more than 18% of the time, he's just magically cut that number in half this season. It's a remarkable thing. Those kinds of trends tend to normalize quickly and it points to a different approach that's paying off at the plate. Reddick's got an OPS over .800 for the season and is especially crushing righty pitching. Love him in the three hole against Colby Lewis in this ballpark. Price is right in the range where I'm always struggling to find solid value. Love this play.

Rajai Davis - FD 2800 DK 4100
He usually finds his way to the top of the lineup against lefties. Let's hope that's the case against Rodon today. Rajai's an extreme splits guy who fairs much, much better against lefty pitching. He has a 122 wRC+ and .812 OPS against that split for his career and should basically only play against southpaws if anyone has a clue. The Tigers seem to understand this.

Consider Adam Eaton and Curtis Granderson

Late Slate
Andrew McCutchen - FD 4300 DK 5000
Gregory Polanco - FD 2400 DK 4200
Two very different price points, but both definitely in play on this slate. McCutchen's been one of the very best hitters in baseball against righty pitching over the last season with a .924 OPS and 158 wRC+ in that split. For a guy who's always killed lefty pitching, he's also getting it done in the reverse platoon. Polanco's here because he's back to the leadoff slot and that provides a ton of value considering the prices. Both face Anthony deSclafani whose xFIP sits in the high 4's while striking out less than 6.5 batters per nine. The ballpark favors the pitcher but the pricing is sweet for both of these guys.

Consider Astros bats against Warren

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