Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, Yahoo and Victiv 8/4/15

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Pitchers

Max Scherzer - FD 12500 DK 13500 Victiv Yahoo 63
Opponent- Ari (Corbin) L Park- @Was
His price is incredibly high, but that comes with the territory of being one of the best pitchers in the game. Full disclosure, the match-up isn’t ideal considering the Diamondbacks are a middle of the road team against right-handed pitching. But with that being said, they still strike out over 20% of the time, which plays nicely into Scherzer’s 10.32 K/9 ratio. I like Washington to beat up on Corbin some in this game as well, so Scherzer has a good chance at getting a W in this one. It’s going to be tough to get a ton of points out of the pitching position tonight, but Scherzer gives you the best chance of getting a solid score (with the potential for a gem as always).

Jake Arrieta - FD 10200 DK 11500 Victiv Yahoo 59
Opponent- Sea (Happ) L Park- @Pit
I don’t particularly like many of the high-priced arms today, with Scherzer and Arrieta being the only exceptions. The Pirates can be dangerous against righties when they make contact, but Arrieta has the strikeout ability to make that less of a concern. His 9.41 K/9 is up there with the best of them, and should be bolstered by the Pirates alarmingly 20% strikeout rate in that split. Arrieta has also won 7 of his 11 road starts this year, meaning he can handle the pressure of pitching in a hostile environment. If you’re wanting to spend up on a pitcher for 50/50’s Arrieta is your guy.

Jimmy Nelson - FD 7600 DK 8200 Victiv Yahoo 46
Opponent- SD (Cashner) R Park- @Mil
I really like Nelson’s matchup tonight. Nelson has been a respectable pitcher this year who has had some bad luck in the run support department. He’s got a respectable 7.65 K/9 and an xFIP of 3.88, which should work just fine against the Padres. The Padres have been a nightmare against right-handed pitching this year, with a 22% strikeout rate and a bottom 5 OPS, wOBA, and walk rate. I think Nelson is your best bet in big tournaments, where his lower price tag allows you to spend up on some bigger bats.

 

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Catchers

Yasmani Grandal - FD 3400 DK 3500 Victiv 4900 Yahoo 17
Opponent- Phi (Williams) R Park- @Phi
Grandal is one of the switch hitter who hits righties better than lefties. A lot better. His OPS against righties is nearly 0.70 points higher against righties, which means trouble for Jerome Williams. To put it nicely, Williams is not cut out to be a major league pitcher at the moment, with an incredibly low K/9 ratio and a sky high ERA and xFIP. Grandal will get plenty of pitches to hit in this matchup, giving him one of the highest point ceilings for catchers in this slate.

Victor Martinez - FD 2600 DK 3100 Victiv 5000 Yahoo 15
Opponent- KC (Duffy) L Park- @Det
The price tag on Martinez has fallen quite a bit over the past week or so, and now is
the perfect time grab him at a bargain price. Martinez has one of the widest OPS split margins I have seen, with an unheard of 0.300 points higher coming against southpaws. And yes you’re reading that correctly because I double-checked. This matchup is almost too good to pass up, because the lefty Duffy has a low K/9 ratio, and Martinez has a blistering 0.368 BABIP against lefties. If you’re looking to save a little to pay up on a pitcher, Martinez is a solid play with A LOT of upside potential.

Stephen Vogt - FD 2200 DK 3600 Victiv 4000 Yahoo 14
Opponent- Bal (Gonzalez) R Park- @Oak
It’s tough to find a minimally priced player who hits at the beginning or middle of the line-up, but Vogt fits that description to a T. He typically hits somewhere between the 2 and the 4 slot, so he’s always in a great position to make an impact. Vogt has an OPS of 0.850 against righties, and it’s incredibly rare to find that high of a number for this low of a price. Miguel Gonzalez is a below average big league pitcher, so look to scoop up Vogt if you’re looking for a high-upside catcher who provides lineup flexibility.

 

First base

Adrian Gonzalez - FD 3300 DK 4000 Victiv 5400 Yahoo
Opponent- Phi (Williams) R Park- @Phi
Not to bore you, but this is very similar to what I wrote about Grandal earlier. Williams is simply not a very capable big league pitcher, and Gonzalez has an OPS of over 0.900 against righties. Put in the simplest of terms, this is a matchup of a professional hitter against a mediocre pitcher who is honestly lucky to even be in the majors at this point. I really like Gonzalez in all formats today.

Ryan Zimmerman - FD 2200 DK 3300 Victiv 4500 Yahoo 13
Opponent- Ari (Corbin) L Park- @Was
I’m not a huge fan of the 1B position today, so if you want to save a little cash at this position, I wouldn’t blame you. Zimmerman provides the perfect opportunity to punt at this position and still give yourself some decent upside. Zimmerman has struggled this year, but has begun to come around lately with 2 HR’s in his last 5 games. Corbin is a legitimate pitching threat, but Zimmerman’s career 0.886 against lefties means he’s more than capable of making an impact here. I like this play if you want to spend big on Scherzer or Arrieta.

 

Second base

Anthony Rendon - FD 3100 DK 3400 Victiv 5100 Yahoo
Opponent- Ari (Corbin) L Park- @Was
Again, I’m not crazy about this position for this slate, but that’s just how it goes sometimes. With that being said, I really like Rendon at this position. His OPS is over 0.100 points higher on the year against lefties, and he’s got an absurd 0.429 BABIP. Like I said with Zimmerman, Patrick Corbin is no scrub, but he is slightly inexperienced. Rendon and his moderately priced bat should do just fine in this matchup, and provide you with some flexibility to spend up elsewhere.

Wilmer Flores - FD 2200 DK 3000 Victiv 4000 Yahoo 12
Opponent- Mia (Hand) L Park- @Mia
If you’re looking to completely punt the 2nd base position today (and I wouldn’t blame you), Wilmer Flores is your guy. Against righties I wouldn’t even consider Flores as an option, but stack him up against a southpaw and he becomes a dangerous hitter. He’s a career 0.300 hitter against southpaws, and has an OPS of over 0.900 this year against such pitching. Simply put, Brad Hand (that’s kinda weird to type) is a below average pitcher at the big league level and I expect Flores to out-produce his low price mark.

 

Shortstop

Jose Reyes - FD 3300 DK 4800 Victiv 5300 Yahoo 16
Opponent- Sea (Nuno) L Park- @Col
Shortstop is an incredibly weak position today, so I would suggest a punt at this position. With that being said, if you find yourself with some dollars to throw at this position, I like Reyes to have a good game here. This pick is pretty much banking on the fact that Reyes will get on base and swipe a bag or two, which is something he hasn’t done since being traded. He’s due for a breakout game with his new team, and Coors Field against a middle of the road pitcher is the perfect place for it to happen.

Ketel Marte - FD 3500 DK 2000 Victiv 4100 Yahoo 7
Opponent- Col (Gray) R Park- @Col
He’s priced high on FanDuel, but on DraftKings this guy is a must-play. Seriously, on DraftKings don’t even consider anyone else. While the major league sample size is small, let’s run down what we do know about this kid. He was tearing up the minors
before he got called up, he’ll be hitting lead-off at Coors Field, and he’ll be matched up with a pitcher making his big league debut. Consider him if you can afford him on Fanduel, but on DraftKings he’s a no brainer.

Starlin Castro - FD 2200 DK 2800 Victiv 4000 Yahoo 11
Opponent- Bal (Happ) L Park- @Pit
I honestly can’t believe I’m writing about this guy given the way his season has gone, but this just proves how weak this position is today. Similar to Kris Bryant, Castro’s Achilles heel this season has been his alarmingly high strikeout rate. Against J.A. Happ, the strikeout threat is significantly reduced and gives Castro a chance to make solid contact. His 0.310 BABIP against lefties this year suggests he’s more than capable of getting some hits against southpaws, so look for Castro to produce respectable numbers at a bargain price.

Third base

Matt Carpenter - FD 3200 DK 4400 Victiv 5100 Yahoo 17
Opponent- Cin (Desclafani) R Park- @Cin
We’ve been riding Carpenter quite a bit the past week and he has not disappointed. He’s had two monster games in his last five, and I don’t see him slowing down anytime soon. His OPS against righties this year is a respectable 0.851, and he’s matched up with a pitcher who isn’t going to win any strikeout crowns anytime soon (or ever) in DeSclafani. His spot at the top of lineup means he’ll get plenty of opportunities to hit, and at his mid level price tag he’s tough to pass up here.

Kris Bryant - FD 3100 DK 4100 Victiv 4600 Yahoo 17
Opponent- Bal (Happ) L Park- @Pit
Bryant has been going through a bit of a slump lately, and that’s why we find his price as low as it is. But I’m a buy low, sell high kind of guy, so I like Bryant in this matchup. One of Bryant’s biggest issues this year has been his high strikeout rate, which has really held him back. Enter J.A. Happ, who has struck out less than seven batters per 9, meaning Bryant’s strikeout AB’s should be reduced. When Bryant makes contact he’s one of the most lethal young hitters in the game, and against Happ he should have plenty of opportunities to prove that.

Outfield

Yoenis Cespedes - FD 3600 DK 4500 Victiv 5400 Yahoo 18
Opponent- Mia (Hand) L Park- @Mia
Cespedes has been on fire for the past week or so, putting up over 5 FD points in five of his last nine games. That kind of hot streak is tough to ignore, and I’m looking for Cespedes to continue that streak tonight. He hasn’t exactly destroyed lefty pitching this year, but his career numbers against lefties are solid enough for me to overlook that. Not to mention he’s up against the aforementioned Brad Hand, who is nothing but a below average big league pitcher. Weak pitching combined with a guy who has a 1.150 OPS over the last seven games makes for a solid play given the modest price tag.

Yasiel Puig - FD 2800 DK 3400 Victiv 5100 Yahoo 15
Opponent- Phi (Williams) R Park- @Phi
The Dodger lineup stack continues, and this time it’s Yasiel Puig’s turn. I promise it’s nothing personal against Jerome Williams at this point, he’s just not a very good pitcher. Puig has a 0.38 wOBA and a 0.868 OPS against righties this season, which makes him more than capable of producing big numbers in this game. Add in the fact that Puig’s biggest weakness (striking out) is significantly offset by William’s inability to strike people out, and Puig becomes a near must play for his reduced price tag.

Josh Reddick - FD 2600 DK 4000 Victiv 4300 Yahoo 15
Opponent- Bal (Gonzalez) R Park- @Oak
One of the more famous platoon split hitters on this site, Reddick finds himself in a nice matchup tonight. Reddick has a 0.375 wOBA and a 0.869 OPS against righties so you know he can produce. Gonzalez is an average, if not slightly below average pitcher at the major league level, and Reddick should be able to take advantage. Keep an eye out on his injury, but if he’s healthy I expect this to be a favorable matchup.

Rajai Davis - FD 2600 DK 3300 Victiv 4200 Yahoo 15
Opponent- KC (Duffy) L Park- @Det
Another platoon split guy who has an OPS of 0.15 greater going against lefties, Davis draws a solid matchup against Danny Duffy. Duffy is a hitters dream because he isn’t going to strike you out very often, and there’s a good chance he’ll walk you. This is the perfect matchup for a patient hitter like Davis who has solid numbers across the board against lefties for his career. I’m not crazy about his new spot in the batting order, but the price is right and will allow you to spend up on pitching.

Nori Aoki
A lot of people have forgotten about this guy since he was out for a while with an injury, but he’s back at a significantly reduced price and he’s picked up where he left off. Aoki is hitting over .300 against righties this year, and has an OBP of 0.360. Also, his strikeout rate is less than 9%, which is one of the best numbers in the league. I know the matchup against Miller isn’t ideal, but Aoki has been consistently producing all year and I don’t see that changing now. This guy has a knack for getting on base from the lead-off spot, and with a strong hitting lineup behind him, Aoki can put up good numbers even without the power upside.

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