Daily Fantasy NBA Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftPot - 11/7/15

The NBA is back! And honestly, I feel like if never really left us. The Finals seem like yesterday, the off season saw a ton of moves and we are ready to jump back into another season. We'll be bringing you daily picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and more. It's going to be a great season.

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POINT GUARD

T.J. McConnell - FD 4200 DK 5000
Opponent - ORL FD Proj. Pts - 23.2 DK Proj. Pts - 24.07
A retread from last night's picks, but that'll happen when the sites are slow to adapt to a guy's pricing. The exciting McConnell represents a natural hedge across FanDuel and DraftKings, as FD has left his price relatively stagnant while DK has raised it dramatically. As of this writing, McConnell is set to pay value on these prices for his third straight night. And two of those nights saw him posting 12 pretty natural looking assists. Orlando was basically league average with this same squad against opposing PGs last season in terms of points allowed, but they did allow 8% more assists than league average. If McConnell is going to keep dribbling the ball up the court, even for a sorry team like Philly, he'll probably cost at least 10-20% more by the time it's all said and done. I'm a buyer.

Jarrett Jack - FD 6100 DK 5600
Opponent - MIL FD Proj. Pts - 26.42 DK Proj. Pts - 27.2
Jack's year to date stats don't look terrific, but there has been some serious weirdness going on over a small sample size. He randomly got in foul trouble against the the Hawks, and the Nets got blown out against the Spurs, making a quick analysis of his year a little misleading. It looks like the Nets intend to play Jack about 35 minutes a night, and if that's the case, he all of a sudden starts looking like a very high floor option. He wasn't fantastic against the Bucks the last time around, but tonight he'll be up against a slightly different Bucks team - one that will in all likelihood be starting Tyler Ennis instead of the considerably feistier Michael Carter-Williams. There were also some other contextual factors that didn't go in Jack's favor - his assists were down due to some unlucky shooting from his teammates, for instance. Jack was out there hoisting shots against the Lakers last night (17 shots through three quarters), and generally running the offense, as evidenced by his 9 assists through 3. On a shorter slate, he looks like the highest floor points per dollar guy by a mile in what ought to not be a blow-out.

Ty Lawson - FD 6800 DK 6100
Opponent - LAC FD Proj. Pts - 30.62 DK Proj. Pts - 31.83
Speaking of safety, Lawson is playing absolutely unreal minutes for the Rockets (he's locked into a steady 37 minute rotation, with upside for more with Beverley banged up), and while his usage is down, a guy with his talent getting this much time on the floor means that he'll almost necessarily shift his year to date stats in a more favorable direction soon. I'm also of the opinion that his opportunities will start to stabilize as Harden's usage drifts down toward more sustainable levels. I just realized I kinda wrote Lawson up last night! Here's what I wrote then:

Lawson had shot 12-13 times a game since becoming a starter in 2011, and been steady at 44-48% from the field. This year he's shooting 9 times a game and only managing a 37% FG%. The fewer shots could be legit, or it could be one of those early season small sample things. Only time will tell, but our projection system is optimistic.

Nice analysis! of course, you'll know more about how last night's game played out by the time you read this than I do since I'm writing it before the Clips/Rockets game. I'm invested for now, though.

Also considered: Steph Curry on DraftKings, but he's priced out for me on FanDuel. I'm also very intrigued by picturing Chris Paul go up against the Beverley-less Rockets team on both FD and DK.

SHOOTING GUARD

James Harden - FD 9800 DK 10000
Opponent - LAC FD Proj. Pts - 45.13 DK Proj. Pts - 47.62
The big money play of the day by a mile, from where I'm sitting. I wrote Harden up last night and the relevant details largely still apply, so why reinvent the wheel? Here you go:

We're now looking at 3 of 5 games this season where he was an incredible drain on your daily fantasy hoops squad. So what's going on, here? Some have pointed to Dwight's return, but Harden's usage has actually been higher with Dwight on the floor this season. In fact, as the number of mouths to feed has increased in Houston this year, Harden's shots have actually climbed by 11% per game over last year. So we should be all, "Wow, more opportunity! This is bound to turn around!" But then there's the eyeball test. Watching these Rocket games, Harden's shot selection has been awful. He's shooting unbalanced 3s early in the clock (and shooting a ton of 3s in general, since his team has been down so much), and his me-first mentality has resulted in fewer assists as well.

Well, I don't have the benefit of knowing how Rockets/Kings played out as I'm writing this, but I have to say I might like Harden as much or more in this match-up with the Clips. The Rockets are a title hopeful, and he's up against a team that simply doesn't have a wing defender that can chase him around for his high 30s minutes. Lance Stephenson? The Ghost of Paul Pierce? Nah. Harden is going to take over, here. Mark my words.

Marcus Thornton - FD 4100 DK 4800
Opponent - LAC FD Proj. Pts - 21.43 DK Proj. Pts - 23.43
Another retread from last night, but this'll happen when prices don't adjust quickly enough to present day opportunity.
Evan Fournier - FD 5500 DK 5800
Opponent - PHI FD Proj. Pts - 26.76 DK Proj. Pts - 29.35
An awful night of shooting for Fournier and a very weird game script saw him have an abysmal game against the Raptors, but I think I can explain at least some of it. First of all, he was being defended by the ferocious Demarre Carroll, and the 76ers have no one who remotely qualifies on Carroll's level for wing defense. Second, he lost all of his 3rd quarter minutes when the Magic tilt-pulled all of their starters when the Raps got off to a 19-4 run to start the half. He was still on pace for 16ish shots, which would been relatively in line with what our projection system figured would happen before things got crazy. The Magic like what they have in Fournier, and this is a great spot to buy while others are feeling spooked.

Joe Johnson - FD 6100 DK 4600
Opponent - MIL FD Proj. Pts - 26.07 DK Proj. Pts - 28.15
Pretty much just a DraftKings play, because have you seen that price? I mean, this isn't the vintage Hawks Joe Johnson or anything, but $4,600? An insult. Johnson paid this going away against the Bucks in their last match-up, and happened to spend 41 minutes on the court in that one as well. It's too bad that the Bucks are such a damned slow team (4th slowest PACE in the league this year), or else you could play Johnson everywhere. I'll definitely be plugging him in on DK though.

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SMALL FORWARD

Kawhi Leonard - FD 8200 DK 7900
Opponent - CHA FD Proj. Pts - 37.52 DK Proj. Pts - 39.02
If our projection system were writing Kawhi Leonard's name, it would put little hearts over the letter "i" in his first name. It would write, in its best script, "Mrs. Kawhi Leonard. Projection System Leonard," while we were trying to teach it how to be even better. It loves it some Kawhi Leonard. The reason? Leonard's price has remained basically the same, but his shots per minute have jumped nearly fifty percent. That's a ton, folks. He's also rebounding more, and blocking more shots. It's a real testament to him that the system likes him in spite of a tough fantasy match-up with the snail's-pace Bobcats.

Khris Middleton - FD 5700 DK 5600
Opponent - BKN FD Proj. Pts - 27.74 DK Proj. Pts - 29.56
Trevor Ariza - FD 5800 DK 5500
Opponent - LAC FD Proj. Pts - 26.43 DK Proj. Pts - 29.56
The mid-range small forward carousel continues. Middleton seems to be finally locked into Jason Kidd's good graces, and he's finally performing in a way that justifies these prices. With 30+ fantasy point performances in this young season - including one against these same Sixers - he seems like the safest option at a position that's seen a lot of midrange options disappoint early. And then there's Trevor Ariza. As you may have noticed, our system has Ariza and Middleton projected for exactly the same number of DraftKings points in their respective contests today, which I find pretty darned crazy. I like Ariza for the same reasons I liked Harden - the Clips are sorely lacking wing defenders, and I think he'll see a lot of long looks in what should theoretically be a fast paced and close game.

Also considered: Tobias Harris, for big tournaments. The minutes are so erratic that you can't invest this much money in him in a cash game, but the erratic minutes will yield occasional monster performances on these prices.

POWER FORWARD

Anthony Davis - FD 10600 DK 10600
Opponent - DAL FD Proj. Pts - 50.34 DK Proj. Pts - 51.12
We gave you Brow as a 1a. to Harden in terms of big money plays for last night, and he delivered the best fantasy performance of the season by any player so far - a ridiculous 43/10 with 3 steals and 4 blocks in a loss against the Hawks. The Pelicans' season is sort of entering panic mode at this point. Can they really come back from an 0-5 start in the West? Are Davis' MVP hopes already kaput? Call me naive, but I'm still a believer, here. Or at least I'm a believer that Davis will go down swinging, if the Pels really are going to be bad. And really, you have to love the match-up here. If you think Dirk can chase Davis around, I've got a bridge to sell you. The Mavs might deploy Pachulia, but he only plays 26 minutes a game. Dwight Powell shouldn't be scaring you, either. Play Davis everywhere you can afford him.

Thaddeus Young - FD 5600 DK 5700
Opponent - MIL FD Proj. Pts - 24.65 DK Proj. Pts - 25.52
Big bad Thad is turning into one of those boring-in-a-good-way options, at least at this price point. We're now on 4 consecutive games where he's scored between 25 and 30 DraftKings fantasy points, making him plenty valuable at a position that is desperately lacking depth this year. Young is basically the same guy he's always been, except he's been playing a little closer to the basket, yielding a rebound rate nearly 50% higher than his career levels. Is that sustainable? I'm not totally sure - but if he's going to keep shooting 50% on 11+ shots per game for this terrible Nets team, that absolutely has value at these prices.

Nerlens Noel - FD 7500 DK 7000
Opponent - ORL FD Proj. Pts - 31.56 DK Proj. Pts - 32.03
The perfect guy to grab if you find yourself in the no man's land of having $7k-$8k left over for your last power forward spot, though I suspect I'll be playing Davis and Young in most contests. Noel is emerging this season as the guy the world thought he'd be coming out of Kentucky - a game changing rebounder (11 per game at present) and a defensive menace with a raw offensive game. The thing is, if he's going to provide 11 rebounds and 4 blocks/steals per game, he doesn't really need to do much beyond dunk the ball when he has the chance to be a valuable daily fantasy asset on these prices. Nerlens played great against the Bucks his last time out, putting up a 17/12, and ran below expectation when it came to blocks and steals. I think this is a nice high floor play, though his lack of scoring makes it so a lot has to go right for him to be a part of a winning big tournament lineup.

Marvin Williams - FD 5100 DK 5400
Opponent - SAS FD Proj. Pts - 22.52 DK Proj. Pts - 24.57
Things sort of fall off a cliff for me at power forward after Young. If you're DFS savvy, you've already noticed the season Williams is having as he fights for Charlotte's feature power forward role. He's averaged 28 fantasy points per game, and perhaps more importantly, it's clear that the Hornets would like to play him 32-36 minutes as they are currently constructed. He's priced at a level where he could give back 5 fantasy points a game and still be a decent play, so it seems like there's some safety built in there. The issue of course is those pesky Spurs. This rates to be a game that's less than close, but I still think Williams is a fine gamble in a big tournament - especially given the fact that basically no one will play him.

An interesting punt: Dwight Powell. You hate to play a guy who's only playing 24 minutes a game, but he seems locked into that rotation, and his terrific rebound percentage makes him a higher floor play than most bench guys. He's getting a rebound every 2.1 minutes on the floor this season, and getting a lot of put backs on those boards. On a night where I don't love a lot of the cheaper options, I'll admit to being intrigued here.
 

 

CENTER

Dewayne Dedmon - FD 3700 DK 3800
Opponent - PHI FD Proj. Pts - 21.18 DK Proj. Pts - 21.65
Festus Ezeli - FD 3800 DK 4500
Opponent - SAC FD Proj. Pts - 21.99 DK Proj. Pts - 22.34
Go cheap at Center day! If Vucevic and Bogut are out again, you can basically flip a coin between these two guys. I prefer Dedmon personally because the minutes upside seems to be so much higher. Ezeli seems to be a fairly secure points per minute play, but we're yet to see him play more than 25 minutes (as of this writing). Dedmon, meanwhile, was prominently featured in the Magic/Raps game, and the 30 minutes he played there should give him a nice high floor just due to the blocks and boards you can project him for. He also has a great match-up with the defensively challenged Sixers. Either being fine, a nice thing you can do to hedge is just play Dedmon on DK (where he's cheaper) and Ezeli on FD.

Jahlil Okafor - FD 5800 DK 6300
Opponent - ORL FD Proj. Pts - 30.25 DK Proj. Pts - 30.71
Another young guy with terrific minutes security in games that rate to be close, and against the struggling Magic, Okafor has as good a chance as any to play his 35-36 minute rotation. What he has that the above guys don't? All-star level pedigree. Okafor is shooting a terrific 54.8% on 15.5 shot per game volume, which is no small feat for any player, much less a rookie. I'd have been a little more scared if Vucevic was slated to play, but against the foul-heavy Dedmon and the Magic's lack of big man depth, I love Okafor as a terrific play for any format.

If you play the 6pm slate: Karl-Anthony Towns! Still too cheap due to a couple of stinkers, but the upside here is on par with anyone at the position, at a much more affordable price than the top tier guys.

 

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