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Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 2/19/16
It's the first big slate coming off the All-Star Break and it just happens to coincide with the day after the trade deadline. Thankfully (from a prognostication standpoint) there wasn't too much movement yesterday. Most teams stood pat in the places it mattered making for a relatively seamless move into this Friday slate. Are there some questions out there? For sure. But this is nothing like last season. Thank the basketball gods.
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POINT GUARD
Russell Westbrook - FD 10800 DK 11100
Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 50.29 DK Proj. Pts - 52.07
I'm putting him up at the top not because he's the best big money points/$ player in our system, but because he's Russell. And he's the toughest guy, on a nightly basis, to fade. It's so damn scary to think about. I'm not calling him a must play; there are plenty of solid (cheaper) options at this position tonight. But few players in the NBA can realistically hit or exceed value at these prices. Westbrook is one of them. If the game is close and he sees minutes in the mid-to-upper 30's then watch out because he can be a triple-double waiting to happen.
Emmanuel Mudiay - FD 5700 DK 5800
Opponent - SAC
FD Proj. Pts - 29.5 DK Proj. Pts - 30.73
Like I said, there are a few mid-tier guys to target today if you are thinking about gritting your teeth and fading Mr. Westbrook. Mudiay is one of them. He's run the point well enough for the Nuggets in the short term and should continue tonight in a great matchup against the Kings. Mudiay's last four games have seen him average a 15/7/4 while limiting the turnovers. That's a great sign for the rookie and tonight he'll face a Kings team playing at the fastest pace in the league while also ranking 25th overall in defensive efficiency. I suppose a Jameer Nelson return could cut into Mudiay's minutes a bit but I'm not too worried about it.
Reggie Jackson - FD 6600 DK 6500
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 32.98 DK Proj. Pts - 34.26
This is an interesting spot for Jackson. The situation would seem to dictate he sees a slight minutes bump at least in the short term. The Pistons shipped away their backup point guard in Brandon Jennings, leaving only Steve Blake to back up Jackson. But SVG is strict with the minutes here and it's not totally clear how this shakes out. What I do like is Reggie playing an up and down team like Washington who've allowed more than average scoring to opposing point guards this season. I'm thinking Jackson is safe for cash games, though I would understand if you were still hesitant on him.
Strongly consider Archie Goodwin and Deron Williams
SHOOTING GUARD
Victor Oladipo - FD 6300 DK 6400
Opponent - DAL
FD Proj. Pts - 34.28 DK Proj. Pts - 35.78
Evan Fournier - FD 5200 DK 5400
Opponent - DAL
FD Proj. Pts - 27.07 DK Proj. Pts - 29.71
It's a little tough to know how the addition of Ersan Ilyasova (to replace Tobias Harris) and Brandon Jennings will effect the minutes on Fournier and Dipo. I suspect it cuts in some, though not a ton. I trust Oladipo's run a bit more than Fournier's simply because the latter could be the guy who gets a minutes reduction. But both of these guys were just playing a ton leading into the All-Star break and that could continue. Both are well worth it for the price if they are going to push up or even exceed forty minutes a game. But again, there's some uncertainty around the Magic right now in how the new pieces fit.
Zach LaVine - FD 4900 DK 5300
Opponent - MEM
FD Proj. Pts - 26.72 DK Proj. Pts - 27.92
Sam Mitchell (partly because he's clueless) has said the T-Wolves plan to rotate Lavine and Prince through the starting lineup for the rest of the season. You know, like good teams do. Lavine is only in play if he's running with the starters and stands to see starters' minutes. Last game before the ASB he started and turned in a 13/4/5 line that paid off. He's a better deal on FanDuel and though this game is against Memphis, remember they are a very different team now without the big man in the middle.
Nicolas Batum - FD 7000 DK 7400
Opponent - MIL
FD Proj. Pts - 35.15 DK Proj. Pts - 37.54
It looks like Batum will move permanently to the three with the loss of MKG for the year and the addition of Courtney Lee to the Hornets. This is Batum's more natural position and we'll see how it effects his fantasy game though I suspect he continues delivering at high levels. They've run him out there for upwards of forty minutes a game and his Swiss Army Knife style lends itself to high floors if the run is there. The Bucks allow about 10% more scoring than league average to opposing threes this season and are below average across the board against the position.
Consider Dwayne Wade. He sees a big usage bump with Bosh off the floor and another one with Whiteside out as well.
SMALL FORWARD
Robert Covington - FD 5000 DK 5900
Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 26.77 DK Proj. Pts - 29.52
It's never easy trusting how the Sixers will deploy minutes on a given night and Covington is, at times, a victim of the rotation carousel going on in Philly. But he saw some more steady playing time before the break and I think that continues in this game. The Pelicans are one of the worst defensive teams in the league ranking 27th overall though they have been okay against small forwards. Regardless, this price on Bob C is sitting in the sweet spot on FanDuel (little expensive on DK). His fantasy value is heavily weighted on scoring and steals. This can lead to fluctuating lines, but the game flow of this one should line up with his style.
P.J. Tucker - FD 4800 DK 5600
Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 24.52 DK Proj. Pts - 26.34
Minutes for miles with this guy. It's insane how much the Suns play him and just how little he can do even with a boat load of run. Our system likes his weighted mean projection, but I wouldn't blame you for looking somewhere else at small forward. That game log looks pretty grizzly and is just a little bit all over the place. There are some games in which he will almost totally disappear. And if you watch Suns games (which we do from time to time) it's frustrating to watch him stand in the corner going long stretches without ever seeing the ball. But Houston ranks in the bottom third defensively and in the top third for pace. That's a nice place to meet on the graph for a guy like Tucker.
Trevor Ariza - FD 5700 DK 6100
Opponent - PHX
FD Proj. Pts - 28.74 DK Proj. Pts - 32.28
Speaking of guys who see endless miles of run, Ariza is a dude the Rockets are happy to trot out there for as much time as needed. In some ways he's like Tucker in that he runs the risk of not hitting value even with tons of court time. Ariza is a bit scoring dependent and if the three isn't falling (or the looks aren't there) then you could be in trouble. This game though should be up and down the court with abandon as neither team cares too terribly much for defense.
Strongly consider Marcus Morris and Otto Porter matching up against each other.
POWER FORWARD
Zach Randolph - FD 6600 DK 7100
Opponent - MIN
FD Proj. Pts - 33.27 DK Proj. Pts - 33.88
The Grizz will be without Marc Gasol for some time leaving a bunch of big man minutes to Z-Bo and a couple of scrubs. In their first full game without their center Memphis blew out the Nets so it's still tough knowing exactly how they'll deploy rotations. But rest assured, Randolph will see his time in this one. The price ticked up some over the break, but not enough. If he's going to be out there for minutes in the mid-to-high thirties then a line something akin to 20/10/2 is totally in the cards. I'll have him all over cash games.
Thaddeus Young - FD 6800 DK 6700
Opponent - NYK
FD Proj. Pts - 34.41 DK Proj. Pts - 35.7
Average player on a bad team can pay big dividends in DFS. Just look at someone like Thad. Is he a star? Ha, no. But the Nets have very little in the way of real talent, leaving a guy like Young to gobble up plenty of scoring and rebounding opportunities when he's on the court for extended periods of time. The Nets play him big minutes in closer games and Vegas doesn't project this game to get out of hand.
Anthony Davis - FD 9800 DK 9700
Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 46.16 DK Proj. Pts - 46.87
It's a weird thing with Davis. For some time his safety was entirely wrapped up in whether he'd have a strong gust of wind blow through the court knocking him out of the game. But leading into the break it wasn't the injuries as a concern, but instead the per game minutes taking a little dip. If you think those trend back up to the high 30's then he's a must start at these prices. But I don't trust anything Alvin Gentry does so he's just a speculative play at this point.
Strongly consider Kristaps Porzingis
CENTER
DeMarcus Cousins - FD 10600 DK 11000
Opponent - DEN
FD Proj. Pts - 52.94 DK Proj. Pts - 53.58
Does anyone else find themselves typing "Boogie" into a search field when trying to find this guy? I do it all the time and it's just one of the many frustrating things about a guy like Cousins. He's got talent for miles, but when you watch him it's like sitting on a bed of TNT. You are just waiting for him to have a meltdown. Sometimes you can see it coming with his over-aggressive style or when he convinces himself he's the point guard of the team (it also manifests in terrible, terrible fouls). But when he has it going there are few in the league better. I'm love him against a Denver team that struggles against both centers and power forwards alike. Though Cousins has seen a price climb, it's warranted. He's elite and there enough ways to save at the other positions.
Andre Drummond - FD 8500 DK 8100
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 42.34 DK Proj. Pts - 43.11
The only reason I'm not in a "Boogie everywhere" mode on FD (a little different on DK where Cousins is a PF) is because Drummond could put up just as many points tonight for cheaper. Andre's a more volatile player in that the minutes will disappear sometimes. But Washington struggles in a big way keeping opposing centers off the glass which, as you know, is Drummond's speciality. Because the Wiz play such an uptempo game, the rebounding volume for Drummond should be there in droves as long as the minutes don't get buzzed.
Strongly consider Zaza Pachulia
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- Joey Dorsey, DeMarcus Cousins: (AP Photo/Pat Sullivan)
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Does Amari get any consideration as a cheap play with Bosh and Whiteside out?
Yes. He’s high in the system. I considered writing him up actually.
no offense but why is Olidipo mentioned each day? Is he that valuable? I just dont see his value, although his price has dropped recently.
With Markieff gone from the Suns, Alex Len makes for an intersting choice. Do you see Len getting more of a run, or will those minutes be split between Leuer and Tele? Thanks!
I gave them slight minutes’ bumps, but that situation is very difficult to trust.
you obviously made the mistake we ALL have made at one point…giving too much exposure to one player for your lineups. It has happened to all of us! You also probably dumped out a decent amount of $ for that slate as well….Experts will tell you on short slates thats huge no no….think about it…the odds of having the nights winning lineup are against you…limited options on the board so everyone has the same thing…play bigger slates so if you have one lineup flop who cares…and it’s not rigged…theres just nights like that…i usually play as many lineups as there is games…i played 3 lineups last night in 2$ tourney…all different…only one paid…i live to play another day and i learned from that eves games and can apply it to tomorrows…tonight is 14 games..ill take the advice these guys give me and build build build….one will eventually hit….thanks guys keep up the good work!
I have nowhere else to post this so at least I know that people who care about this will see my post. That bullshit calf injury last night to Kawhi Leonard is a prime example of why DFS NBA is rigged. 58% of people played him in the tournament and he is scratched without notice? Think about it, 25K is a lot of money. I’m done with this shit.
Just curious how is it rigged? Just bc someone got hurt? The only reason to fade him last night would be to be a contrarion.
He didn’t get hurt, and this isn’t the first time this has happened. It’s been a week since the NBA played and they knew how much money and people were playing last night. That was an obvious scratch to benefit themselves. How much money was lost by the players who invested the time and effort to put forth a lineup that would compete? That was a blatant setup by far! Tell me a NFL player would sit because he got kicked in the calf? LOL? Biggest scam ever just occurred last night and the lackeys will just sit there and say DUH.
Is your implication that the NBA rigged the contest to benefit certain DFS players or vice versa? And yes, I played Kawhi everywhere. Actually cashed on FantasyDraft, some DK and late FD with him in lineups. But it was frustrating for sure.
Doug I hear ya, but winning was still possible lastnight, I won with the inactive Leonard in my lineup. I had Rose, Irving, Hood, Crawford, James, Leonard, Thompson, Portis, and Gobert (50/50 double up) finished with a 264, not the most impressive number but slow dough better than no dough lol. Although had he played I would have been that much better off.
I’m not saying the NBA rigged the game last night, I’m saying that the Spurs rigged the system last night. If you don’t think that they aren’t playing and benefiting from this type of move then most of you are pretty naive. We all put in the time and effort to roster a lineup that would compete in a tournament format and then for a highly rostered player to mysteriously be scratched is a complete clue to the rigging of the system. And this isn’t the first time this has happened with the Spurs either. Think about it. And please from now on with your advice (which I appreciate) anytime the Spurs play, please put an asterisk next to any players name stating that you should be warned about the rigging of NBA DFS. That was the most obvious scam in DFS history!
You guys make me lmfao with the AD stuff. A gust of wind blow in the stadium and knock him out for the game absolutely hilarious.
The who Leonard not playing last night is BS but I should have known better the Spurs love to screw over people in DFS, should have gone with Hayward and Wall like I originally planned. But it’s not like Leonard totally let me down since he was 83% owned in 50/50 FD, but rather Aldridge and Duncan playing like bums
Lineup tonight
Lillard: Has played well against GSW in the past and has 50pt upside while being sub $10k
Rondo: Past 4 games registered 15 or more assist per game. Two 40pt and 50pt games.
Batum: Favorable match up against Bucks. Great ceiling of 40pts-50pts.
Booker: Houston bump. This kid continues to make 5X.
Tucker: Great value. KCP is back for Detroit so no more SJ. 25pts-3-pts+ isn’t unreasonable.
Deng: No Bosh no Whiteside
Stoudemire: No Bosh no Whiteside
Randolph: No Gasol and without Marc Randolph has played well, also you could play Dieng here
Towns: As of recent playing like a star but at sub $10K. It seems he either does mid 30pts or does a 50pt game.
I just can’t see 2 Miami players on a roster unless it’s a 50/50. Pace is too slow for me. Amare yes in my lineups
Disagree a little especially if wade is out. Atlanta is horrible vs big men
Joe,
I just posted one of my gamble lineups for your viewing pleasure. I am going to use this lineup you provided in one of my FD quintuple up contests. I love it! Thank you
This one will pay nicely 😉
PG Reggie Jackson DET $6,600
PG Rajon Rondo SAC $9,000
SG Bradley Beal WAS $6,300
SG Klay Thompson GS $6,800
SF CJ Miles IND $3,500
SF PJ Tucker PHX $4,800
PF Mirza Teletovic PHX $3,800
PF Draymond Green GS $8,400
C DeMarcus Cousins SAC $10,600
Rem/Player: $0 $59,800
This guy has to be joking……lol
Let’s say this. Pop is known for pulling a star in a marquee match-up on national tv. He likes to see how some of the bench players (Simmons and Anderson ) so they can complete playoff rosters and rotations. Pop makes me sick but if there is definitely one dude not in on any “fix” conspiracy theories it’s not Pop. FYI I should have been in money but Irvin was bum and Favors and Crawford were turnover machines lol! No Leonard to bail me out on two misses and a 0..
How do you see the playing shaking out in the 3 spot in DET with KCP back and Harris in the fold? Between Morris, Harris, and Johnson, that is a lot of minutes to split. Is one or more of them going to play minutes at the 4 with Ilya gone? I know you are recommending Morris, but I’m fading all of them for a while until I see what SVG does for a few games. Hate to fade them in such a nice matchup tonight though.
Let’s be honest about this, this whole DFS is just a big ass crap shoot. The winners of these tournaments just post a ridiculous amount of lineups. I see the same person with line up after line up in the same tournament. You can’t win by studying and trying to predict scores. Just post 250 lineups and i’m sure one will hit. I was actually excited and ready to start getting serious and then the whole thing with the Spurs… I threw my iPhone out of my car window in disgust.
iPhone out the window? Perhaps anger management would be place to focus your attention.
Though I have to admit, I felt the same way when the scratch came in!
The system works! Nothing is perfect. 22 winners from my last 30 plays. Short slates are feast or famine though. The more teams the better for different lineups. You just gotta know when to go big and just crank a 50 50.
This is hilarious
LOL Frank glad I can entertain you today. I’m still sticking with the conspiracy though. The guy played 26 minutes in the all star game then suddenly an injury that occurred in the Miami game is holding him out of an important conference matchup? Like I said before that was an obvious scam believe it or not.
Douglass Price—Hey bro, I get it, it’s frustrating for sure. I had Kawhi in all 50 of my double up lineups and missed the money by 1/2 of 1 point on DK (granted he was highly owned so who knows if I would have won even with him playing anyway, so I digress). HOWEVER, to imply that the billion dollar Spurs are going to pull one of their best starters for some DFS chump change is ridiculous. Something as simple as pulling one starter as a late scratch would not have enough impact in this type of space to guarantee that they would benefit from the move anyway, not to mention they would need to be in direct collaboration with the fantasy sites in order to make this type of a scheme work or to even have any type of REAL advantage (I.E., Even if Kawhi was 75% owned in whatever format you are playing there would still be a 25% field variance they would have to account for (I.E., lineups without Kawhi that they would be competing with). Therefore, if you know much about schemes or conspiracies, (which apparently you do) you would agree most people that participate in that type of activity would typically want a hell of a lot less than a 25% variance to take the risk…Does that make sense? Anyway, I’m sure I am wasting my time by authoring this book because you have probably already stopped reading it… BOTTOM LINE>> If you hate DFS soooo much and it is soooo CLEARLY rigged then don’t play man. It’s as simple as that. A lot of us on here do this for fun and to take our minds off of the everyday grind of real life, (hence the words DAILY FANTASY) so when I come to one of my favorite blogs to do some mind numbing research and I have to read things about intricately woven scandals for the rich to get richer it’s even more frustrating. Why don’t you spend your time on “Youtube” looking up videos about the “Illuminati” and leave the rest of us to our uneducated, clueless existences… LOL I’m not trying to be rude…or am I ????? Maybe this is just another ploy to cover up the malicious rigging and I am actually a Spurs employee….Maybe this should go under the “What We Won’t Know” section in the DFSR NBA Injury News and Updates…..spoooooky……c’mon maaan….P.S. I truly apologize to those of you wasted the last couple of minutes reading this passage but he hit a nerve for some reason (maybe because I potentially lost $50 due to the very situation he is complaining about and took it like a man…who knows….LOL ***end of rant***
Doug Norrie- Any opinion on Gary Harris in Turbo tourney play with 3 game slate on DK? Or possibly any other suggestions in this price range? That is as long as I am not kicked off of here after my last passage…lol
Ha, Donald! This is James, not Doug (he’s next to me doing database work) – but Gary Harris seems like a reasonable option considering the huge minutes and potential for a hot streak. I also like Tony Allen, who could see huge minutes with Jeff Green out of town and Stephenson not yet acclimated.
Douglass you think the players are playing DFS? I find that hard to believe considering the top prizes are basically what they can earn for one game, and I think the NBA wouldn’t look highly on this in most players contracts. None of them want to be the next Pete Rose.
I’m glad I posted here, at least you guys can feel my frustration. I understand that they make a shit load of money and there would be no real reason for a player to scratch to make extra money. That’s not what I’m implying here. The fact that his injury was non announced and almost 60% of the players in the tournament went with him throws up a serious red flag. It’s not in the realm of possibility that “somebody” benefited from his mysterious absence. Just saying.
You cray bro…lol
Im not doug n joe but some of them guys are bums. Not saying mine wont flop but these are projected higher.
PG Stephen Curry GS $10,800
PG Damian Lillard POR $9,100
SG Bradley Beal WAS $6,300
SG Klay Thompson GS $6,800
SF CJ Miles IND $3,500
SF PJ Tucker PHX $4,800
PF Paul Millsap ATL $7,900
PF Mirza Teletovic PHX $3,800
C Marcin Gortat WAS $6,800
Mr teletovic and tucker are punts but they have nice ceilings. Gortat can dominate tonight, high vegas score and DET is dreadful against opp centers
good luck
Doug N and Joe
Please provide input, insight and suggestions on the following lineup. This is one of my famous “gamble lineups”
Curry, Lillard, Thompson, Tony Allen, Aminu, Iggy, Dray Green and Pachulia.
yikes…you’ve got guys in there with limited min….eeek…simmons is a punt for sure…keep green either way. hes a great play. take out durant. That lineup looks like a donate to the pot lineup bc youve got guys that might not see that much playing time. i see what youre going for though. heres best i can do with westy and curry in my lineups
Russell Westbrook OKC $10,800
PG Stephen Curry GS $10,800
SG Bradley Beal WAS $6,300
SG CJ McCollum POR $7,300
SF CJ Miles IND $3,500
SF PJ Tucker PHX $4,800
PF Kristaps Porzingis NY $6,800
PF Mirza Teletovic PHX $3,800
C Nikola Jokic
good luck!
I have a really shot in the dark fun line tonight
Westbrook
Curry
Simmons (Kawhi is out the conspiracy continues)
G Green (if wade is out)
KD
Winslow
ZBo
Young
T Zeller (olynyk out)
Any reason to think Zeller will get these minutes? Both Johnson and Olynyk left the last game early, and he only played 5 minutes. Looks interesting otherwise for sure.
LOL Gerrard!
Casspi and Belinelli doubtful. Really considering Collison for what should be a nice bump in minutes in a good matchup. Also can’t decide on bobby portis or stoudemire in cash similar minutes similar price.
My crazy “gamble” lineup for DK (I don’t play FD, but from what i see in these comments it seems like an easier place to get big salary in your lineups). Always fun to get a little crazy for GPP.
Lowry
Gerald Green
Kyle Anderson
Favors
Drummond
Lillard
Gallinari
Speights
And big thanks for the every-day write-ups you guys. You all have the best picks (and logic behind those picks) of any of the sites I’ve read.
Gerrard you are asking too much from your 4 punts ,green,simmons,winslow and zeller that is 80 pts at best and you hope to 200 from the rest ,so that should put u at 280 pts at best and alot less is likely .
PG Kyle Lowry TOR $8,400
SG Avery Bradley BOS $5,300
SF Mirza Teletovic PHX $4,000
PF Dirk Nowitzki DAL $6,000
C Dwight Howard HOU $7,400
G Jrue Holiday NO $6,900
F Aaron Gordon ORL $6,000
UTIL Jared Sullinger BOS $5,500
Rem/Player: $0 $49,500
DK gpp
What do you think of this line up
Rondo
Evan Turner
Rudy Gay
Zach Randolph
Greg Monroe
Mike Conley
Marcus Morris and Ben McLemore
Draftkings Cash lineup
Conley
Harris
Gallinari
Boogie
Vucevic
Holiday
Leuer
Kyle Anderson
What about Kaminsky getting the start?? Is it worth getting him in lineups?
Any chance you can combine both this and injury on the same page? Tough to go back and forth on phone