Such a light day in the NBA that perfect lineup construction is the key to victory today. This is a somewhat obvious statement though it is no more important than in small slate nights because one misstep is the difference between cashing/ bubbling/ sinking. I'm going to give just a few plays that I think are the highest value from our system.
Quick reminder about these picks. At DFSR we employ a system that seeks to gain the most points-per-dollar. When we give a recommendation, it’s because we believe that player has the best chance to meet or exceed his price. On any given the night the highest dollar player can be expected to score the most points, but that doesn’t always make him the best play for the money. Want an in-depth look at how we set our lineups each night? Sign up for our email list and get a free eBook on the 6 steps every pro takes before setting his lineup, either by clicking that link or signing up through the sidebar. On to the picks.
Ray Allen $8,549-
It really looks like Wade is going to be out again today and if that's the case Allen must be in your lineup. Against a Laker team that really can't defend at all, Allen should have plenty of looks. You can't fade any blowouts on a night with only two games so might as well just not even thin
Ty Lawson $16,514-
I'm going Lawson over Lillard tonight for a couple of reasons. First, their ceilings are almost the same while Lillard's basement is far lower than Ty's. Additionally, if this game stays close it's much more likely that Lawson was a major reason, whereas a Lillard big game could spell blowout. Portland is well below average defending the PG position.
Mario Chalmers - $10,372-
He's another guy who gets a value bump with Wade out. He has the ball in his hands enough to pay this price in cash games. I wouldn't play him in a GPP.
Randy Foye $9,831-
Was sick the other night, but he's been fairly consistent in crushing this salary since returning to the starting lineup. I love the price and the matchup. Try and get word on his status. If he can't go, slot in Evan Fournier $8,213 who took Foye's place the other night.
Forward is rough tonight
Lamarcus Aldridge - $22,508 -
If you're choosing to spend big money on one player tonight, it should be Aldridge over Lebron. Denver is an abomination against power forwards and though the Lakers are also terrible at defense, I think Aldridge has a smidge more upside than LBJ tonight.
Wilson Chandler - $11,622 -
Love this price on Chandler and with him seeing the full run of minutes he shouldn't have any issue paying this and then some. I love his price/expectation considerably more than his counterpart in Batum.
Ryan Kelly $10,413-
His price has gone up considerably since he was an uber-punt only a few days ago. But he's getting enough minutes that on a slow night this price might let you spend somewhere else without having to be completely speculative. He's played more than 30 minutes the last few games and been productive enough to assume he'll get it again, even in a blowout. Seems safe-ish to me.
Chris Anderson - $8305-
I think you need to have Aldridge (or Lebron if you go that route) in your lineup tonight and so you'll need to save money somewhere. There aren't many options to do that (outside of what I've already given you) but Birdman could be the dude. He gets about 20 minutes a night and is productive at this price. The Lakers have no real interior defense and he could put up some stats even in a limited run. Gets a bump if it's a blowout. Bosh/Hickson/Lopez are all good options at their prices and if you can fit one in I'd make it Bosh. But like I said construction is the name of the game. Birdman helps you get a stud in there.
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View Comments
First, ive been reading your post for a few weeks now and has really helped. SO thank you!
second-- whats your take on wesley matthews tonight? id replace foye with him?
Kevin,
Thanks for reading. We're pumped it's helping.
Re: Foye v. Matthews. This is a dollar consideration. Matthews is about 15% more expensive than Foye and they both have (IMO) the same ceiling. Foye's might even be a bit higher considering price. Foye, since returning to starting lineup has had his minutes there pretty much every night. For my money, I'd rather have Foye and upgrade somewhere else if possible. Matthews not a bad option, just like Foye better.