With twelve games on the schedule today you'd think there'd be a million considerations. And there very well may be as we approach game time. The last couple of nights have featured some close, last minute calls on who to slot into lineups. But tonight I actually see some very clear plays that are consistent between sites. Part of this is because I think many of the big name, big money plays are relative stay aways. That isn't true across the board, but I can imagine a scenario in which people talk themselves into a superstar with a suboptimal matchup. Don't be that guy/ girl. Take a look where the value is today.
Quick reminder about these picks. At DFSR we employ a system that seeks to gain the most points-per-dollar. When we give a recommendation, it’s because we believe that player has the best chance to meet or exceed his price. On any given the night the highest dollar player can be expected to score the most points, but that doesn’t always make him the best play for the money. Want an in-depth look at how we set our lineups each night? Sign up for our email list and get a free eBook on the 6 steps every pro takes before setting his lineup, either by clicking that link or signing up through the sidebar. On to the picks.
Brandon Jennings FD $7,700 DS 14,636-
Has been putting up awesome numbers over his last four and should be considered as close to a must play as you can get at point guard today. He could shred Philly's backcourt defense. I'll be playing him in every format.
Isaiah Thomas FD $7,700 DS 14,510-
Another guy who can put up big numbers on any given night. His production has actually not increased with Boogie out of the lineup. It could be because he's seeing slightly worse shot selection without the opposing defense having to focus on the big man. I think I actually give Thomas a little bump if Cousins is back in the lineup. San Antonio hasn't been great against point guards this season. The question is more about whether the Kings can keep the game close.
John Wall FD $8,800 DS $16,767-
Speaking of keeping the game close. The fact that this is at home for Washington makes me a little less worried about them getting run over by the Thunder. Wall is a cash game play for me because while he's amazingly consistent, he rarely crests into the 5x range (on FD). That's fine for your double up formats but for his dollars I'm not sure he can win you a tournament.
Ramon Sessions FD $5,900 DS $11,118-
Looks like Kemba Walker will be sitting again tonight making Sessions a great mid-tier option against the Suns.
Jeff Teague DS 9,658-
Wow, what a price. He's back in the lineup now as the starting point guard and is priced like a backup. This is something everyone will be taking advantage of. Don't miss out.
Lance Stephenson FD $7,900 DS $15,510-
I love Stephenson in a cash game format because he pays these prices consistently in a way that can land you in the top half of the field. I don't necessarily see a ton of upside at these salaries meaning I'll probably avoid him in larger tournaments. But he's been filling it up of late and makes a very safe play.
Rodney Stuckey FD $4,900 DS $9,711-
Gets to play Philly. Stuckey is primarily a scorer and in a wide open game against the Sixers, should see a number of opportunities. He's been seeing about 30 minutes a night off the bench for a while now. There isn't much risk for the Sheriff at this price and against this opponent.
Kyle Korver FD $5,100 DS $10,434
Korver has been consistently near the top of our system. One is because he's been priced just a tick below expectation to begin with. Add in some favorable matchups (like tonight against Minny who's been allowing ten percent more scoring than league average against shooting guards) and you've got another super value. Barring some unforeseen punting opportunity, Korver and Stuckey will be seeing most of my lineups on FanDuel.
DeMar Derozan DS $15,412-
He came back last after a few games off with injury and though he didn't play particularly well, what I'm looking at are his minutes. He played 33 which is a little below his average. But Toronto was up much of the night on the Nuggets. This is all to say that Derozan makes a solid play at this price on DS against the Blazers.
Wesley Matthews DS $11,662-
Matthews will be headed the other direction on the court and makes for an equally intriguing play at a lower price. He and Derozan have about the same dollar/ point expectation so I think you can consider them about equals on DS today.
Josh Smith FD $8,000 DS $13,913-
J-Smoove. A DFS lightening rod. So much upside. Such a basement. He makes a scary play because he can take games completely off. But that hasn't happened in some time. I actually like him for all formats today and think he's close to a must start on DraftStreet. Against the Sixers anything is possible and if there was a game he could post a huge line, this is the one.
Kevin Durant FD $12,800 DS $23,001-
If I was going to spend any big money today, I think it would be on Durant. Besides that he's playing out of his fucking mind right now (dropped a 27/3/7 line last night in about 25% less minutes than he usually plays), he's also facing a Wizards team that struggles against SFs. I mean everyone struggles against Durant, but Washington will have some pretty big problems in trying to figure how to guard him. If you can fit his salary in, this is where you spend the dough.
Chandler Parsons FD $7,500 DS $14,679-
What I like about Parsons is that barring something unforeseen he is nearly a lock for close to 40 minutes. For Parsons that kind of volume doesn't necessarily translate to safety, but more to his upside. He tends to go big or go home, paying this going away, or totally sinking you. For that reason you can target him in GPPs. Added risk that Houston might beat the Bucks by a million.
Evan Turner FD $7,300 DS $13,275-
Speaking of boom or bust risk. Ugh. I hate to even put him on here but two out of his last three games have been money and Detroit has been below average defending every phase of the game against small forwards.
Nic Batum DS $11,783-
Price has gotten really low here and is worth a flyer.
Guys like Love and
Zach Randolph FD $7,700 DS $15,764-
Z-Bo is the top for-the-money power forward option today. Sub 8K and 16K prices for this guy are completely in the sweet spot for his upside. One of the reasons he's a top play is the opponent in the Bucks. Milwaukee is a complete disaster meaning this game could get out hand early. But if you think there's any chance the Bucks can hang, Z-Bo should be in nearly everything for you.
Thaddeus Young FD $7,100 DS $13,772-
Back to being good again? We picked him for yesterday and he responded with a 29/8/5 (steals) line that more than paid the day for you. Detroit has struggled with scoring and rebounding power forwards and Young gets a bump with this in play. He can be a maddening player, but I think there's plenty of upside at these prices.
Tim Duncan - FD $8,200 DS $16,372-
A fantastic double up play as Duncan goes out there and will not sink your team. The Kings are awful defending power forwards, 10-20% worse defending different aspects of the game. I'm loving Timm-aaayy for his safety.
Carlos Boozer - FD $6,700 DS $13,019-
Becomes increasingly more attractive if Anthony Davis sits again.
Tristan Thompson - FD $5,700 DS $9,565-
Ugh, I hate recommending any player from Cleveland. That team doesn't know which way is up. Plus,they could easily get slaughtered by Houston. Plus Thompson has been playing terrible. So why is he on here? One, his price has dropped with recent performance. Two, he is only a few games removed from playing at a pretty high level. Our system loves him today. I think there are some extenuating circumstances that the algorithm can't account for, which is why I have him at the bottom here. But I think if you want to roll the dice, he isn't the worst guy to use.
Boris Diaw - FD $4,200-
One game he's the punt of the century, the next he crushes your soul. A tournament play for the upside.
Hawks Big Men
Gustavo Ayon - FD $3,900, Mike Scott - FD $4,200, Elton Brand - FD $3,700--
These guys rotate minutes, but all can pay big time. I'd think about choosing one, or mixing and matching some different lineups together.
Terrence Jones - FD $12,140-
Love this price on here today. DraftStreet has a ton of midrange value.
Channing Frye - FD $8,985-
Under 9K for a starter? Jump on this.
Basically four solid choices today. The second two are FanDuel picks specifically, but the top two work everywhere.
Andre Drummond FD $7,500 DS $15,960-
Could destroy the Sixers. I mean literally could make their franchise disband under the weight of Drummond devouring rebounds and making everyone from the Sixer starting frontcourt, to the executives, to the payroll clerks cry.
Joakim Noah FD FD $9,000 DS $17,834-
Like Boozer, this becomes even better without Davis. But even with the Brow, New Orleans is getting manhandled in rebounding from opposing centers. Noah could go a'boardin tonight.
DeAndre Jordan FD $7,600 -
Did you see what Bogut did to the Jazz on the boards last night? Expect something similar from DeAndre.
Tyson Chandler FD $5,500-
Continues to crush this price. Is by far the best mid-range value at the position tonight.
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