Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftStreet 2/25/14

Well the Bucks and Sixers was everything this DFS guy could have imagined. It involved a bunch of losers playing a bunch of other losers (and Thad Young) with just about everyone paying off their salary (except Wolters and Knight). Pretty much everyone else got theres. What does Tuesday have in store?

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Point Guards

There are four great options at point guard today all in the same price range who all stand to pay the day. I think a lot of today is going to come down to choosing these guys correctly. Right now I have them loosely ranked in the order I would play them. But man it's close. (I switched it around three times before publishing)

Damian Lillard - FanDuel $7,900 DraftKings $8,300 DraftStreet $16,513
Lillard rates out as the top PG play today, not necessarily because he is tops in the system, but mostly because I don't think our system has properly accounted for his increased role since Aldridge went down. He played reduced minutes against the TWolves and still paid the day. Because when he's on the court, he is the Blazers primary option. Against the Nuggets, Lillard should see plenty more opportunity. He'll either face a Ty Lawson off an extended injury break or Aaron Brooks who was part of the crew that allowed a 33/6/3 to IT3 two nights ago.

Kyle Lowry - FanDuel $8,300 DraftKings $8,400 DraftStreet $16,063
Lowry draws a fantastic matchup against Kyrie and the Cavs who rate among the worst in the league at defending the opposing point guard. They get especially crushed in the rebounding and assists department. Lowry has been steady and his minutes are locked in at around 35+. He should be able to easily reach value at these prices.

Goran Dragic - FanDuel $8,500 DraftKings $8,200 DraftStreet $15,904
I think there is a bit of a drop off from Lowry to Dragic, but it isn't a chasm. Over the course of the season Minnesota has allowed 7% more scoring to opposing point guards, and though they've been a bit better of late, they still struggle. Dragic isn't necessarily boom or bust, but he doesn't provide near the safety of the above two guys. His upside might be a bit higher though.

Isaiah Thomas - FanDuel $8,200 DraftKings $7,800 DraftStreet $16,266
I'd put IT3 a firm fourth on this list. His matchup isn't nearly as good as the other three but he sure does seem to like having Boogie in the fold. He, Cousins and Rudy Gay are pretty much the entire Kings' offense.

Jameer Nelson - FanDuel $5,500 DraftStreet $9,107
If you want to save a little on FD or find some value on DS Nelson is a nice option. John Wall and Washington are a little worse than league average point guards and Nelson has it in him to really beat these prices. I like him even more with Afflalo out of the lineup.

George Hill - DraftStreet $7,470
Playing the Lakers and one of the few guys I'm not completely worried about the blowout with because he has to do so very little to pay off this salary. I think he will be in all of my DraftStreet lineups as a mini-punt priced starter.

 

Shooting Guards

James Harden - FanDuel $9,200 DraftKings $10,000 DraftStreet $19,130
Harden is a top play across the board today. And though his price is getting real steep on DraftKings and DraftStreet, you can justify it. On FanDuel he makes for great value against the Kings and their very suspect defense. Harden's been on a crushing tour lately. Part of me doesn't particularly like buying at what could be his salary peak, but it's a little tough to get away from him today because of what he's been doing of late.

Lance Stephenson - FanDuel $7,600 DraftKings $7,100 DraftStreet $13,991
The only concern here is the possible blowout, which is a very real possibility against the Lakers. Otherwise, who exactly is going to guard Lance? Kent Bazemore? Anyone on the Lakers. If this turns into a transition game with the Lakers pushing the pace, Stephenson could have a healthy line even in limited run. With a revolving cast of characters over the course of the season LA has allowed 15% more scoring and rebounding to opposing shooting guards. Add in 10% more assists and Lance is a bargain.

Gerald Green - FanDuel $5,900 DraftKings $5,800 DraftStreet $10,777
Green is a high volume shooter and needs to knock his shot down to pay off, but he can heat up and pour in the scoring. Minnesota is gross against shooting guards and this should be a high scoring affair that could stay close. That's the perfect scenario for a guy like Green who gets 30 plus minutes of run a night.

Wesley Matthews - FanDuel $6,000 DraftKings $6,000 DraftStreet $11,045
Don't let his poor performance from last game scare you off. Matthews is still a fantastic option tonight. SGs can have big swings because typically they are counted on for only one thing (scoring) and when it isn't happening they suck. His matchup against Denver is choice and I like him to get back on track and pay these prices.

Kent Bazemore - FanDuel $3,600 DraftKings $3,800 DraftStreet $5,955
Almost got Baze-d the other night until he picked it up in the second half. He'll be a popular play, especially on DraftStreet if he draws the start again.

 

Small Forwards

While there is a bunch of value at SF today, it is a bit spread out among the sites.

P.J. Tucker - FanDuel $5,500 DraftKings $5,100 DraftStreet $9,750
I listed him first because he is actually guy I'd target on all three sites. His minutes have dipped a bit the last couple of games, but I'm liking his chances of getting back on track against Minnesota tonight. Whatever you think of Corey Brewer, the TWolves have been below average against SFs this year. Part of this is their pace of course, allowing for more volume across the board.

Trevor Ariza - FanDuel $6,600 DraftKings $6,800
Probably a little pricey on DraftStreet but these salaries are more than manageable, especially on FanDuel where he is one of the top SF options. Orlando has been an abomination lately against small forwards. Part of that was running into Melo (assuming they counted him as a SF, which isn't guaranteed) but their other matchups have been no one special. With Afflalo out the Magic are in flux and he could be guarded by Harkless.

Chandler Parsons - FanDuel $7,200 DraftStreet $14,104
I think there is something to be said for pairing he and Harden together in some places if you can afford it. Their games don't cancel each other out and there's some track record of them both paying off in the same affair.

Paul George - FanDuel $8,700 DraftKings $8,900
A little farther down the list mostly because I'm worried about paying this much in a game that could see George sitting the fourth quarter. No doubt he's been dominating since the All Star break, and he's worth a tourney look. I just not sure I can stomach the game's volatility in a cash game.

Corey Brewer - DraftStreet $7,504
A solid bargain here and relatively safe for the price. I don't think the upside is there but he could fit a space as a money saving option.

Wilson Chandler - DraftStreet $8,740
The minutes are still there.

 

Power Forwards

David West - FanDuel $6,800 DraftKings $6,700 DraftStreet $12,860
Falls into the same category as all of the Pacers tonight. He's a top option strictly from a system standpoint but factor in the risk of the blowout. You already know the story with the Lakers and their "defense".

Tobias Harris - FanDuel $6,700 DraftKings $6,700 DraftStreet $14,272
Playing at such a high level right now and stands to continue his winning ways with Afflalo out of the lineup again and Glen Davis off the team. Harris is a complete bargain across the board with these salaries and should have an easier time with Nene out of the lineup (assuming he plays the 4).

Kevin Love - FanDuel $11,600 DraftKings $11,200
Too expensive on DraftStreet but not on these two sites. He had as disappointing a 31/10 as anyone in the NBA can have the other night against the Blazers. But that shouldn't sit with you too long. Love is a top option, able to go 5X at these prices almost any night. The odds are decent he gets to value tonight against the Suns who are slightly worse than average against power forwards.

Markieff Morris - FanDuel $5,900
Minutes are up. Production is up. Destroying of late. Again, not always great to buy when the stock could be reaching it's peak but one thing I'm encouraged with Markieff is that his production seems tied to his minutes and if those are more stable this price isn't anywhere near where it should be.

Thomas Robinson - DraftKings $3,400
How'd his 14/18 line against the Wolves do for ya? Price has risen everywhere else a little beyond where I'm comfortable for strictly an upside play as he's coming off the bench. But this is minimum territory.

 

Centers

Option are cut and dry here tonight.

Roy Hibbert - FanDuel $5,400 DraftKings $6,200 DraftStreet $9,910
Though he's against the Lakers, there is risk with playing Hibbert tonight and it has less to do with the blowout than his teammates. He has been all the hell over the place this season. Some games are near no shows. That's to be expected some because he is the 4th/5th offensive option on the team and doesn't rebound nearly as much as he should. But the Lakers help to make up some of that gap. On FanDuel and DraftStreet I think I'm comfortable rolling with him. It's a bit close on DraftKings.

Joakim Noah - FanDuel $9,100 DraftKings $8,700 DraftStreet $19,244
Noah is the anti-Hibbert. He's all over the place on offense and defense, getting every hustle stat imaginable and just is fun to watch. The price is high on Noah and with a number of other pricey guys out there tonight it'll be interesting to see how people construct their lineups. The only reason I'd get away from him is Hibbert and Lopez offer similar expectation on a point-to-dollar basis and I know I can spend bucks in other places. That being said, center is relatively thin tonight.

Robin Lopez - FanDuel $6,400 DraftKings $6,500 DraftStreet $12,840
Sucked hard against Minny the other night. But don't let that get you down. He will bounce back tonight against Denver who ranks among the worst in the league against opposing centers. In rebounds and assists they are a crime against humanity. I really like Lopez as a super safe option all things considered.

Miles Plumlee - DraftStreet $7,057
Minutes are down but this price is low I think he could make a nice semi-punt option at a weak position tonight.