Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftStreet 2/27/14

Warning: Today is a bit of a mess. First off, it's a relatively short slate which immediately limits the options. This, in and of itself, is not an enormous issue. I tend to favor short slates in cash games because a few mistakes by others in lineup construction leaves them very little wiggle room. But today's issues stem beyond that. There is blowout risk, significant playing time question marks, and some injury considerations. I feel like these picks all have one big asterisk on them. So fair warning. I'm not calling today a stay away necessarily, there are just more than a few issues you'll face in making lineups.

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As a note, I'm probably only going to run one of these guys on DraftStreet. I think the value is better for shooting guards today.

Kyle Lowry - FanDuel $8,300 DraftKings $8,200 DraftStreet $16,012
Like I said to start, I am valuing safety above all else today in cash games. I am willing to even go overboard with it at times I think. Thankfully, Lowry doesn't represent one of those overboard moments. He draws a favorable matchup against John Wall and in this face-off I much prefer Lowry. He had a horrendous shooting night on Tuesday and still almost hit value. I don't think he repeats it and think he is one of the better values on the board today.

Deron Williams - FanDuel $7,000 DraftKings $7,200 DraftStreet $15,340
Though he's been playing better of late, he's far from a sure thing. It's kind of a coin flip between he and Brandon Knight below. Williams looks like a much better play if Lawson sits again for the Nuggets as Aaron Brooks is no defender. I think in a vacuum I give the edge to Williams just from a minutes standpoint. There is a better chance Williams plays a full game.

Brandon Knight - FanDuel $7,000 DraftKings $6,600 DraftStreet $14,816
While the matchup as a whole for the Bucks is a bad one against the Pacers, it is much, much worse for the stiffs on the interior than the guards. Actually Indiana is trending just slightly better than league average against point guards. All things considered today, I think you'll take it. Blowout is for sure in play, but Knight is one of the few guys on the Bucks who doesn't get his minutes fucked around with too much. Again point guard is a minefield today.

And if Ty Lawson is out again you can play:
Aaron Brooks - FanDuel $4,200 DraftKings $4,600 DraftStreet $9,315
Who makes a great, low cost option tonight at a position that is anything but enticing. He's performed fine in his time as Nuggets point guard. I'm not expecting great, great things but if Ty doesn't play, Brooks is your man.

Dwyane Wade - FanDuel $8,000 DraftKings $7,900 DraftStreet $17,688
Might need to pay for Wade today. It remains to be seen what Lebron is like today with the face mask on. And while I don't suspect it impedes him too terribly much, there might be a modest bump for Wade, especially if Lebron is looking for his shot just a bit less. That's complete speculation of course, but Wade is safe as our system likes his chances against the Knicks who really can't guard the two at all. Without Shumpert they've been getting lit up in that arena.

Joe Johnson - FanDuel $5,300 DraftKings $5,400 DraftStreet $11,694
Not fun to watch. Not fun to root for (I don't but I'm assuming). Not really that good on a game-by-game basis. But he can pile it on at times. Here's to hoping this is one of those games. Denver gets blasted in the scoring department by shooting guards. Even worse of late.

DeMar DeRozan - DraftStreet $14,002
Loving this price for Derozan. He's a bit rich for my blood on FanDuel and DraftKings, but on DraftStreet is just slightly above where I'd like his price to be on a busy night. On a short one, this is completely in play. For instance, I'd much rather play him at this price than B Knight for $800 more. A note: I don't have him crossed off my list on FD and DK. He might fall into that category of paying for "safety"

Bradley Beal - DraftStreet $11,143
Another guy I'l be targeting here because he, like Derozan, is such a minutes lock. He gets 36-38 minutes a night like clockwork. There's some fluctuation in his nightly output, but as this salary I'm more than willing to absorb the risk.

LeBron James - FanDuel $11,400 DraftKings $11,000 DraftStreet $24,465
You're going to pay a ton for him, and on such a light evening it may be tough to get his salary in without a ton of punts available. It will be real, real tough on DraftStreet. But on FD and DK the price is actually fairly reasonable. We don't know what it will be like for him with the protective mask on, but I'm not too concerned with it. Before he broke his nose Lebron was just going beast mode. I expect him to be amped for this one and will be trying like hell to get him into everything.

Paul George - FanDuel $8,700 DraftKings $9,100 DraftStreet $18,147
I'm putting him on here because our system likes him right behind Lebron at the small forward position. If you are in a tournament and looking to fade King James, I'd think about doing so with George. Other than that, the safety with an impending blowout makes it so risky. As stated, he's on here because the system thinks he has some upside at these prices.

Paul Pierce - FanDuel $5,800 DraftKings $6,000 DraftStreet $11,149
The Blazers are dealing with some significant injury issues which should keep this game closer than maybe would have been suspected a week or so ago. I like Pierce to get his scoring opportunities and a few extra rebounds as well.

Andrei Kirilenko - FanDuel $3,900 DraftKings $3,800 DraftStreet $9,115
Still very cheap as long as he's getting even twenty or so minutes off the bench. Which is no lock. He only played 12 last night.

Trevor Ariza - FanDuel $6,600 DraftKings $6,600
Toronto, while slow and plodding, is only about league average against opposing small forwards. Ariza's mid range price tag has some upside built in and he, like Beal, is such a minutes lock.

Trevor Booker - FanDuel $3,500 DraftKings $3,500 DraftStreet $8,604
He was a popular punt the other night and with good reason. He had been productive in his time filling in for Nene earlier in the season. He struggled shooting early on but climbed back toward value late. Honestly, my opinion of him doesn't change at all from last game. I still think he's a super solid option and if he is getting the start he is a must play on FD and DK. Probably DS as well with so few options tonight and a significantly reduced price tag for a guy who should see thirty minutes.

David West - FanDuel $6,800 DraftKings $6,800 DraftStreet $13,842
All things considered, West is considered a value more for his production than for any deficiency the Bucks have on the interior. Actually, over the course of the season, they've been about league average against power forwards. West is coming off of a few strong games. And though he's been a bit up and down this season, seems somewhat safe at these prices even with a blowout looming.

Carmelo Anthony - FanDuel $10,800 DraftKings $10,800 DraftStreet $21,937
He's getting a little priced out of consideration for me on DraftStreet as he ranks below Lebron at George, but I think you can make a slight case for him on the non-efficiency sites. I think he will take a ton of shots in this show down and that could pay off with the volume, especially if the Knicks keep it close.

Amir Johnson - FanDuel $4,900
This is a great price for Johnson on FD. I very likely will pair him with Booker at PF in an effort to ensure minutes at reduced prices.

I think it kind of depends on the site tonight.

Marcin Gortat - FanDuel $6,700 DraftKings $6,700
Gortat will square up against Valanciunas for at least part of the game tonight and Toronto has been relatively meh against opposing centers. At a weak position tonight, I think he is about the safest play on these two sites. A little too expensive for me on DraftStreet who I think price corrected knowing he was the only steady guy out there today.

Tyson Chandler - FanDuel $6,000
Solid price here today against a Heat team that struggles with rebounding against opposing centers. Look for Chandler to grab more of them than usual. The Heat are great in reducing centers scoring but that doesn't so much matter for Chandler's skill set.

Roy Hibbert - DraftStreet $9,706
Milwaukee gets completely blasted by opposing centers and this price is way too low for what Hibbert can theoretically do. That being said, he's not first on the list because he just hasn't been putting it all together this season. Plus he might not see the fourth quarter.

Timofey Mozgov - FanDuel $4,300 DraftKings $4,700 DraftStreet $9,275 OR
J.J. Hickson - FanDuel $5,900 DraftKings $6,000 DraftStreet $10,931
What the hell do you do with this situation. Mozgov gets the start last game and plays fairly well, posting a 14/6 line with a couple of blocks. Not bad for super low prices. But then JJ comes in off the bench to the tune of 16/25 and officially entering the "Are you fucking kidding me?" category. I mean I don't know. I think whoever starts is a value. Hickson is an upside play just because he can fill it up at times (again, see last game). This one is a bit of a mystery but I'm putting them on here because they are at least intriguing.