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Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

03/07/2014
Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftStreet

Welcome to another NBA Friday, where you can start your weekend the right way. By sweating lineup lock and the subsequent huge slate of games. I actually think the top end value is fairly clear tonight. Many top end players are in bad defensive match ups taking them out of the discussion. That leaves a few games to focus on. Let's get to it.

 

Point Guards

There is value in point guard today, but I think after Lawson you need to be site specific.

Ty Lawson - FanDuel $8,700 DraftKings $7,300 DraftStreet $16,255
The top point guard play on the board today, Lawson is still working at a reduced price after coming back from injury and is against one of the worst defenses in the league. His DraftKings price is kind of a joke. Ty looks like he's just kind of pissed he had to sit out for so long and is now trying to make up for lost time. He will be a heavy play with good reason.

Kyrie Irving - FanDuel $8,400 DraftStreet $16,274
A little steep for my on DraftKings but Kyrie draws a decent matchup against a Charlotte team that's league average against point guards. Irving has been fairly safe at these prices for awhile now and should keep it going.

Stephen Curry - FanDuel $8,900
There is a bit of injury concern here and he played limited minutes last game with a leg issue. But if you want to hit a homerun, Steph might be the guy tonight. Though the Hawks are about average against point guards, Steph can pay this off in a big way. It's a been a bit since he went completely off. And though I don't base my decisions on the "he's due" factor, there is an element here to suggest that his price is bottoming out because he's gone through an extended dry-ish spell.

Brandon Knight - DraftKings $6,500 DraftStreet $13,294
Still playing the big minutes for the shitty Bucks team. Is one of the few guys on the team relatively locked into his role on this squad. This play is, like many of the others at this position, more about price than opponent. I don't think he has tons of upside, but is another safe pick.

Brandon Jennings - FanDuel $6,600 DraftStreet $11,815
This is speculative and I kind of want to puke about it, but this is an upside tournament pay that I'd consider on these two sites. He's taking far less shots with Singler in the starting lineup which limits his upside. Either that or he got a scolding about being such a shitty shooter. But I still think there's room for a breakout game.

Isaiah Thomas - DraftKings $7,400
This is a great price on here tonight for a guy who is just so consistent night in and night out.

 

Shooting Guards

DeMar DeRozan - FanDuel $8,500 DraftKings $8,100 DraftStreet $17,337
Haven't thrown out Derozan as a pick in awhile but it wasn't for his lack of effort. The price always seems just a tick too high. Not tonight. Tonight he is the top shooting guard play across the board, even at DraftStreet with his price a bit higher than normal. He gets this because Sacramento has been getting obliterated lately against opposing shooting guards. Destroyed. Over the last couple of weeks the Kings are letting up 50% more scoring than league average to opposing shooting guards. Surely that's an unsustainable number, but it simply doesn't happen to good defensive teams.

Randy Foye - FanDuel $6,600 DraftKings $5,200 DraftStreet $10,766
I like the Randy Foye that has Ty Lawson standing next to him in the back court. Well not directly next to him, that would be horrible spacing. More like around the same area. Foye plays huge minutes for Denver, can chuck up more than fifteen shots a game and gets the play the Lakers tonight. That's a recipe for success on every site.

Chris Douglas-Roberts - FanDuel $3,700 DraftKings $3,000 DraftStreet $7,595
This is assuming he starts again tonight in place of Gerald Henderson. I think he will and makes a great play at near minimum prices on a couple sites. That DraftStreet salary is right in the punt range as well. He got close to thirty minutes against the Pacers and crushed these salaries. The Cavs are not the Pacers.

 

Small Forwards

Josh Smith - FanDuel $8,600 DraftKings $8,200 DraftStreet $16,056
This should be an uptempo game and really all I need to see out of Smoove is volume. For him, the more Detroit possessions the better. He takes ill-advised shots, and he is far from consistent, but I like to pick and choose my spots with him. The T-Wolves are below league average against small forwards and Smith should be able to body up Corey Brewer.

Wilson Chandler - FanDuel $5,600 DraftKings $5,700 DraftStreet $11,336
He's making a comeback after bottoming out for a few game stretch. The prices a coming back up. I never like to buy at the top, but I still think there is room for value on Chandler. This might be the end of the line after he plays the Lakers. He could post a monster. Then it will be sell time. But for tonight? Lakers baby!

Kyle Singler - FanDuel $4,600 DraftKings $4,100 DraftStreet $8,950
Price remains depressed on FanDuel and DraftKings while just being "safe" on DraftStreet. Just needs to get about ten shots to have a solid chance of value with room for upside. I think he does it against Minnesota.

Nicolas Batum - FanDuel $7,200
This price is kind of silly low considering what he's been up to lately and that Dallas is below average against small forwards. Will be tough for me to get away from him on FanDuel tonight.

DeMarre Carroll - DraftKings $4,800
Minutes are still there as are the shots for the most part.

 

Power Forwards

Fairly thin here tonight.

David Lee - FanDuel $7,900 DraftKings $7,500 DraftStreet $14,556
Though Millsap might be back tonight, I still love D Lee against an older/ undersized Atlanta front court. But it isn't the matchup that has me intrigued as much as his price remaining depressed after being out for a few games. If last game was any indication, the rust is off.

Kenneth Faried - FanDuel $5,900 DraftKings $6,200 DraftStreet $12,739
Price has been on a steady climb while he just goes out and gets his 16/8 like clockwork. Like his teammates, Faried gets a great bump playing against the Lakers tonight who allow 12% more scoring than league average and 10% more rebounding to opposing power forwards. Faried should be in line for a double/ double.

David West - FanDuel $7,000 DraftKings $6,800 DraftStreet $13,465
I don't really like any of the Pacers in this game against the Rockets except West. He'll be matched up against Terrence Jones who is no defender. In fact, Houston has been downright bad against opposing power forwards this year. They've allowed about 10% more scoring and rebounding than league average mostly because Jones is there for his offense, not his D. This is a great spot for West.

Pau Gasol - FanDuel $9,000 DraftKings $8,400 DraftStreet $17,295
Guess who else sucks against power forwards? Did you guess Denver because that's who Pau plays tonight. Damn you're smart. And good looking too. A winning package my friend. Gasol is the focal point of the Laker offense down low and though the price is on its way up, I think he still has room to squeeze some value out here.

Amar'e Stoudemire - FanDuel $4,300 DraftKings $4,300
Quick addition: I'd probably add Amar'e here as well. Price is up a bit but as long as he's starting and playing around thirty minutes a night, this is well within the scope of acceptable.

Reggie Evans - FanDuel $3,800 DraftKings $3,600
Has played close to thirty minutes last couple of nights off the bench and absolutely crushed these prices. I almost think this is pretty safe.

 

Centers

Pau is a center on DraftStreet and is the top play there. Center is a bit of a problem tonight as many of the better guys have horrible match ups. Plus Pekovic is on a minutes limit. We are stuck somewhere in between.

Tyson Chandler - FanDuel $7,000 DraftKings $6,500 DraftStreet $14,573
Been playing great lately and draws a super solid matchup against the Jazz. Utah is at a decent size disadvantage whether they front him with Favors or Kanter. But scoring isn't Chandler's forte. It's rebounding and Utah has been worse than league average over the whole season. They also get blocked a ton. Chandler should be good for a few more of those. And while his DraftStreet price is getting up there, Chandler's downside is rather limited because he never misses the shots he doesn't take.

J.J. Hickson - FanDuel $5,600 DraftKings $6,000 DraftStreet $10,985
Again, you might need to make some weird choices at this position tonight. I don't suggest overspending for the big boys. Hickson hasn't been starting but his minutes are getting back up there. I think he could see some more run against an uptempo LA team. This is an upside play, but I think it could be a winner.

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