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Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

03/24/2014
Doug Norrie

Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftStreet

Going to save the witty and meta-level banter for today and get right to a quick disclaimer about these picks. Because the Spurs are playing Philly, pretty much every relevant guy on their squad is near the top of our system. They are all in play, but you know how this goes. It is nearly impossible to project minutes/ DNPs for the Spurs. Some like Patty Mills, Boris Diaw and Tiago Splitter make for some low cost/ high upside plays. Everyone else is a gamble. Proceed at your own risk.

Be sure to sign up for a free 3-day trial to access the NBA system and spreadsheets that help produce our picks. And give a follow on Twitter @dailyfantasysr. Let's get to the picks.

 

Point Guards

Mike Conley - FanDuel $6,800 DraftKings $7,200 DraftStreet $13,955
Conley doesn't have crazy upside, but I for sure like targeting guys like him when they go up against faster-paced teams like the Timberwolves. Conley does about the same thing every single game. His 17/6/3 game averages are pretty much what his final lines look like each night. I think he has a chance for a tick higher tonight and makes an especially attractive play on FanDuel and DraftStreet.

Reggie Jackson - FanDuel $5,600 DraftKings $5,600 DraftStreet $11,643
It doesn't appear as if Westbrook will play tonight meaning Reggie would draw another start. He's not the best point guard in the league (or the 20th best) but in a fast-paced game he should see more than his share of shots and opportunities. Again, this is only if Russell sits.

Shelvin Mack - FanDuel $3,900 DraftKings $3,300 DraftStreet $6,533
If Korver is out again then I think Mack is still in play even after his poor outing yesterday. The prices are in punt range for a guy getting thirty minutes. This game against the Suns should be high scoring and up and down the floor, meaning Mack (a point guard playing the two) will have more opportunity and volume. If Korver sits I think you get on Mack and hope others are scared by a bad outing.

Jeff Teague - FanDuel $7,100
Speaking of the Suns/ Hawks game, this is a great price on Teague who should be pushing much of the action all game. I don't mind even pairing he and Mack together in a stack. Price is steep on the other two sites but you can probably consider him there as well if you think the game really goes to the moon.

Goran Dragic - DraftStreet $13,053
And speaking of that game again, Dragic's price here is nuts. This is way too low. His production is down since Bledsoe's return but he can match this salary. He did and more yesterday against the Wolves with an 18/6/3 line. More of the same coming today.

Russell Westbrook - DraftKings $7,900
I think he'll sit today against the Nuggets, but if he plays this is a must have in your lineups on DraftKings.

 

Shooting Guards

Gordon Hayward - FanDuel $6,800 DraftKings $7,000 DraftStreet $13,789
Shooting guard is a weak field tonight and I see Hayward as one of the few across-the-board plays. Detroit is about league average against shooting guards (a bit worse in the short term) and Hayward will probably be guarded by Kyle Singler, who sucks at defense. If you are new to basketball, this is the kind of matchup you're looking for.

James Anderson - FanDuel $4,800 DraftKings $3,500 DraftStreet $7,014
Tony Wroten is out tonight meaning Anderson will probably see more than thirty minutes independent of how many points the Sixers are losing by, which could be a lot. The FanDuel price is a little steep, but everywhere else he's near minimum prices. That's great news on a tough night to find quality shooting guard value.

Gerald Henderson - FanDuel $5,200
Houston allows 7% more scoring than league average to opposing shooting guards and Henderson has been playing well of late. I will probably have him in my lineups on this site instead of Anderson as long as I can wiggle those last few hundred bucks.

 

Small Forwards

Kevin Durant - FanDuel $12,000 DraftKings $11,500 DraftStreet $24,289
On a night of question marks and value points a bit lower than normal, Durant is probably the top option, especially if Westbrook sits. Russell sitting should keep the game closer and Durant will be the primary focus in the offense. The DraftStreet is getting a bit out of hand, and I don't know if you'll be able to squeeze it in. Very tough to fade him tonight, but those salaries are steep.

Richard Jefferson - FanDuel $3,500 DraftKings $3,700 DraftStreet $6,862
Almost picked him the other night on the news that Alec Burks was out. Didn't and Jeff scored 21. I'd feel comfortable playing him tonight at near minimum prices because I think the minutes will be there and he should see some more shots than normal. Again, SF is weak and I love when I can plug in a guy who should at least see the minutes. Oh, and Detroit is dogshit against small forwards.

DeMarre Carroll - FanDuel $5,800 DraftKings $5,000 DraftStreet $10,549
Like him much more if Korver is out as he will see more scoring opportunities in a well-paced game.

Dorell Wright - FanDuel $4,000 DraftKings $4,000 DraftStreet $7,705
He is hit or miss. I wouldn't play him in a double up structure but he has some upside if he's hitting his shot.

 

Power Forwards

Serge Ibaka - FanDuel $7,800 DraftKings $7,300 DraftStreet $14,291
I am listing Ibaka first because he is in play on all sites tonight against the Nuggets. Denver's getting a train run on them lately by power forwards who've been scoring 22% more than league average and getting blocked 82%!!! more than league average. That's not sustainable of course but they are blocked 30% more than league average over the whole season. It's a real thing. And Ibaka blocks, a lot. I don't love counting on that one particular stat, but Serge should easily hit value tonight.

Anthony Davis - FanDuel $10,800 DraftKings $10,400
You know about this guy? He's been on a streak of late that should be illegal. Going 30/10+ every night like it's easy. And while I'd love for it to continue, I can see him dropping off a bit tonight. I still think he can get in lineups on these two sites (too steep on DS) but keep in mind that Brooklyn depresses scoring from opposing power forwards (season long and in the short term without KG). I don't think he has a crazy ceiling, but should still be fairly safe.

Paul Millsap - FanDuel $8,000
Not loving his salary everywhere else, but on FD he will make the power forward choices a little bit tougher. In a high scoring game against a smaller Phoenix team I like Millsap to have a real solid line. He's someone that's making me consider pivoting away from Davis on this site.

Derrick Favors - FanDuel $6,300
Makes me nervous because you never know what you'll get. It'll either be awesome or awful with very little in between. Tonight should be okay as he faces Detroit and their frontcourt that defends worse than league average.

 

Centers

Robin Lopez - FanDuel $5,800 DraftKings $5,700 DraftStreet $11,316
I'm not a fan of many Blazers tonight, but R-Lo rates because Miami has no way to deal with quality opposing centers. I've mentioned some of the numbers before, but over the season they've allowed 12% more scoring and 11% more rebounds than league average to opposing centers. And they've been worse lately. It's bad. Lopez should be in lineups tonight because the price makes

DeAndre Jordan - DraftKings $7,300
Price is always low here and he is one of the only Clips I'm even considering because they'll beat the Bucks by a thousand. Even in a rout I could see 'Dre hitting value here.

Henry Sims - FanDuel $4,700 DraftKings $4,400
Been playing well in big minutes and makes an intriguing upside consideration against the Spurs. Should see his run regardless of score.

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