Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel 3/31/14
BASBEBALL SEASON, BITCHES!
The smell of freshly cut grass, a vendor peddling his wares, mustard-covered pretzels, and best of all, the opportunity to absolutely crush your opponents in daily fantasy baseball. But let's stop the foreplay and just do the damned thing.
A quick note - our baseball product for FanDuel is a day or two away. Apologies, but we haven't run it before and the only way to test it is with live season action. It will be up by the end of the week, for sure.
Be sure to sign up for a free 3-day trial to access the NBA system and spreadsheets that help produce our picks. And give a follow on Twitter @dailyfantasysr. Let's get to the picks.
A little note about baseball picks
If you're coming over from basketball - welcome. If you're a lifelong fantasy baseball player, welcome. I want to give a quick heads up about how we are going to do our baseball picks.
Unlike basketball, contextual information matters very little baseball. Guys rarely take days off, and "playing well recently" means almost nothing. Playing time hardly ever changes (unlike in basketball where guys can increase their opportunities by 50% on a coach's whim), and when it does, it's fairly obvious.
So, we're going to be giving picks each day without huge write-ups. The only thing that changes about a player in a given day (for the most part) is the park he's playing in and the pitcher he is facing. Most of the other stuff is noise, unless a player has drastically changed his position in the lineup. For pitchers, all that really matters is who they are facing, which park, and if they've been recently injured.
Let's do it.
Chris Sale $8,900
Minnesota stinks against lefties, and Sale is an ace at a reasonable price.
Yovani Gallardo $6,200
The system likes Gallardo for a bounceback year, and he's drastically underpriced to start the season. The Braves are a tick better than league average against righties, and Milwaukee is a neutral park. He's poised to pay this and then some.
Jorge De la Rosa $5,100
Jeff Samardzija $7,400
Pitcher's park, and the Pirates struggle against righties - posting an ops of .703 vs. them last year.
Matt Wieters $3,400
Matt the bat is fairly priced with a decent matchup (especially for opening day) with Lester in Baltimore (a league average park). Top catcher on the board.
Buster Posey $4,000
Hitters park, one of the more desirable opening day match-ups. Love Posey here as the highest priced catcher.
Dioner Navarro $2,700
He's the starter, and he's got a heavy split vs. left handed pitching. Price is great and all, but Navarro is awfully cheap.
Adam LaRoche $2,900
LaRoche draws Dillon Gee - one of the very worst opening day starters, in spite of his success at home last year. On a day where all the best guys are pitching, the righty crushing LaRoche is a great play.
Adam Dunn $2,700
Dunn was made for this matchup - the homer-happy righty Nolasco, and his home town hitter's park. Ignoring the Spring here as well.
David Ortiz $4,100
A lousy Spring, and a handful of missed games, but if Papi is in the lineup, he has one of the best match-ups of opening day. A righty, and a pretty bad one for an opening day starter. The bad spring isn't scaring me.
Freddie Freeman $4,200
Even with Gallardo penciled in for a bounceback, Freeman is still an up and coming lefty, and Gallardo IS still one of the weakest opening day starters. Freeman is fairly priced in a decent lineup. For your own sanity, don't play Freeman AND Gallardo 🙂
Neil Walker $3,000
The price is right for Walker, and the switch hitter is actually a lot better against righties. Early in the season, we're going to get great prices on guys coming off of bad years, and Walker is one of those.
Dan Uggla $2,900
Uggla is one of the few players in the majors with a reverse platoon split - he's better against righties than lefties. He could definitely K a few times in this one, but the homer potential is very real - and Uggla has showed a pretty decent batting eye this Spring.
Not an ideal match-up for Kinsler, but our projections have him as the highest scoring 2b today by a wide margin.
Darwin Barney $2,200
Bargain basement play and a nice righty/lefty split (facing the left handed Liriano). Essentially the baseball equivalent of a punt - but it could pay off.
Brad Miller $2,900
The left-handed Miller heads out to a pitcher's park in Anaheim, but draws a nice match up (for him) in Jered Weaver. Like a lot of young lefties, he is MUCH better against RHP. Throw in the added run possibility with Cano in the lineup this year, and Miller's price is destined to climb.
JJ Hardy $3,300
Love the Lester match-up for the Baltimore righties today. Hardy shows a distinct lefty-righty split, and becomes very playable against opposing left-handers.
Asdrubal Cabrera $3,300
I like Cabrera quite a bit less than the guys listed above - but he is pretty much the same against righties and lefties, and while Sonny Gray is off to a nice career, he's not of the same caliber of a lot of opening day starters today.
Pedro Alvarez $3,700
Love the Samardzija match-up for Alvarez, as Samardzija is prone to give up the long ball against lefties, and Alvarez really only hits righties. A match made in heaven.
Trevor Plouffe $2,900
Trevor Plouffe was put on earth to do one thing: hit against left handed pitching. Enter: Chris Sale. Price is too good to ignore.
Will Middlebrooks $3,200
Tillman makes for a pretty decent opening day match-up, and the Boston lineup is always in play for letting things get out of hand. Love Middlebrooks if you are looking to stack Boston guys tonight in GPPs.
Giancarlo Stanton $4,200
I'm spending my lineup money on Don't Call me Mike against Jorge De La Rosa. Righty vs. Lefty, and De La Rosa can give up a homer. Just love him here, in all formats.
Austin Jackson $3,200
Batting in the 5 hole, Jackson should get plenty of opportunity behind Detroit's big bats. Jackson is another reverse-split guy, and he has a suitable match-up in Shields.
Marcell Ozuna $2,900
While you're feeling frisky, why not check out a little Marcell Ozuna? Every projection system in the world likes him, and De La Rosa is about as juicy an opening day match up as you can get. Dirt cheap with upside.
Denard Span $2,900
I hear you snickering, but Span ended the season very strong, and faces one of the worst opening day starters today. Love him, especially paired with...
Bryce Harper $4,300
Harper is projected for almost as many points as Stanton today, and was basically built in a laboratory to destroy pitchers like Dillon Gee - regardless of Citifield magic.
Jose Bautista $4,600
Price isn't a great match up for anyone, but Bautista can definitely hit lefties -- real upside here even with an ugly matchup.
Ben Zobrist $3,500
Kind of weird picking guys against RA Dickey, since a lot of the usual rules don't apply with knuckle-ballers, but Zobrist doesn't rely on the longball to get his value, and his patient approach should be enough to let him produce value vs. Dickey.
Torii Hunter $3,200
Same story as Jackson - the Detroit line-up is basically all in play tonight.