Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, Draftkings, and Draftstreet 4/5/14
A little note about baseball picks
If you're coming over from basketball - welcome. If you're a lifelong fantasy baseball player, welcome. I want to give a quick heads up about how we are going to do our baseball picks.
Unlike basketball, contextual information matters very little baseball. Guys rarely take days off, and "playing well recently" means almost nothing. Playing time hardly ever changes (unlike in basketball where guys can increase their opportunities by 50% on a coach's whim), and when it does, it's fairly obvious.
So, we're going to be giving picks each day without huge write-ups. The only thing that changes about a player in a given day (for the most part) is the park he's playing in and the pitcher he is facing. Most of the other stuff is noise, unless a player has drastically changed his position in the lineup. For pitchers, all that really matters is who they are facing, which park, and if they've been recently injured.
Let's do it.
Jeff Samardzija FanDuel 7400 DraftKings 9400 DraftStreet 18407
Samardzija is my favorite big $ pitcher today (on FanDuel). Philly had a .694 OPS against righties last year, and that includes their home games in that little bandbox they play in.
Tommy Milone FanDuel 5300 DraftKings 7200 DraftStreet 13461
Speaking of horrible vs. a certain handedness - Seattle was an embarrassment against lefties last year, sporting a .657 OPS. Combine that with a heck of a park, and Milone makes an excellent play today.
Carlos Carrasco FanDuel 4200 DraftKings 7000 DraftStreet 7255
The system actually doesn't like Carrasco very much, but it does like the Indians in this game, and Carrasco does have some K ability. The thing about cheap pitchers is that they basically pay for themselves by getting a win. Carrasco makes a decent risk, in that way.
Victor Martinez FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 6720
V-mart is very simply one of the best hitting "catchers" going, and Bud Norris and his spunky fastball shouldn't do much against V-mart and the Detroit lineup.
Brian McCann FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 5842
You're going to see McCann in this space a lot this season, so get ready. RA Dickey isn't your traditional right-hander, but McCann is still 130 OPS points better against righties for his career. Not a lot of catchers bat around guys like Beltran and Teixeira, too.
Buster Posey FanDuel 4100 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 8618Posey gets a fantasy match-up in Maholm. Posey has a 1.007 OPS against lefties in his career. Did you read that? You have to consider him any time a lefty is on the mound - especially when that lefty is the corpse of Paul Maholm.
Joe Mauer FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 7344
Mauer's been oddly terrible this year, but he's quietly a righty masher during his career, with an OPS a full .170 points higher against right handers. My guess is, he's hungry for this game against Carrasco to get back on track.
Justin Morneau FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 6936
M&M boys leading the 1B write-up! Morneau is another big split guy, though not as severe as Mauer. He primarily benefits from facing a right hander in Coors field, which is a good park for hitters, doncha know?
Billy Butler FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet DH
Another platoon split beast, Butler has crushed lefties during his career, and in case you missed it, Danks truly sucked last year and Billy Butts should take advantage.
David Ortiz FanDuel 4200 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 8071
Just wanted to slap Papi up here too, in case you decide to stack Boston guys against Peralta. I like the three guys above much better, but Papi makes a nice play, too.
Aaron Hill FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 6214
There are only so many ways to write this, but Hill is a power-hitting righty playing in Coors against a left handed pitcher. Hill's .40 OPS points better against lefties for his career. This is his game.
Darwin Barney FanDuel 2200 DraftKings 2900 DraftStreet 3657
It feels weird to recommend anyone against Cliff Lee, but here I am. Barney will get his swings against left handers, and Lee sucked his last time out. Barney costs just $2,200 on FD, and makes a decent contrarian play.
Troy Tulowitzki FanDuel 4400 DraftKings 5100 DraftStreet 8062
Tulo is at home again, and Brandon Mccarthy is fine and every, but come on - it's Tulo. When he's playing at home, the price can always be justified.
Chris Owings FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 2400 DraftStreet 4248
The shortstop across the diamond from Tulo makes for a strong play as well. Jorge De La Rosa struggles at home, and Owings fares significantly better against left handers.
Carlos Santana FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 6080
Santana prefers lefties, but Gibson will do for his purposes. Lots of Indians are in play today, and Santana should likely be the first among them.
Pablo Sandoval FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 5071
Giants stack is looking terrific today. Sandoval is .108 OPS points better against righties, and Maholm is a lefty, for sure, but I'm giving Sandoval a chance anyway - in particular because he should have guys on base in front of him, and guys to knock him in behind him.
Mark Trumbo FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 7112
Tough to imagine getting away from Trumbo today. A huge power righty, in Colorado, against a lefty, who really isn't very good. That's all you need.
Oswaldo Arcia FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 5646
Arcia is off to an inauspicious start, but the system isn't concerned. Like a lot of young players, Oswaldo features a healthy platoon split (120 OPS higher vs. righties!). Very solid play.
Melky Cabrera FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3200 DraftStreet 4853
The Melkman went yard off Tanaka last night, showing a rare-ish display of power. Melky is platoon neutral, and the system isn't convinced that Pineda is destined for a huge comeback. Melky is very cheap for what he's capable of, and makes a nice play here.
Aaron Hicks FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 5577
Twins stack alert? Hicks has been pretty lousy against righties for his career, but didn't look totally lost his first time out there this year.. and he's just so damned cheap. All he needs is to reach base and steal a bag to justify this.
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