Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 5/9/14

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Pitchers

Jose Fernandez FanDuel 10600 DraftKings 12800 DraftStreet 28222
Well this is going to be the big question of the day huh? How much is an acceptable price for Fernandez? Everything about his numbers (ridiculous) and the opponent (dreadful Padres) and the park (Petco) seems like we are headed for a crazy performance. So it really just comes down to what you are willing to pay for him. On FanDuel the price is completely acceptable and I'd recommend getting him into cash games and figuring out the rest of your lineup around him. On DraftStreet, the number is a crazy 28% of cap. The only way you are making that work is to pair him with a midrange starter and reliever. On DraftKings, it's kind of the same story. His final line should be nuts. The Padres are that bad on offense and he is that good. Now can you afford him?

Masahiro Tanaka FanDuel 9500 DraftKings 11300 DraftStreet 22559
The only other cash game guy I would even really consider is Tanaka. My boy Masahiro has been nails this season, lighting it up to the tune of a 2.16 xFIP and mowing down opposing batters. If anything, he's run bad with the amount of home runs he's given up, an unsustainable 22% Hr/FB rate that will regress. That evens out a bit because the Babip is low (when balls go over the fence they aren't put in play) and his strand rate is probably going to decline some too. But that just regresses along with the home runs and you're left with a great pitcher against a mediocre Brew Crew.

Francisco Liriano FanDuel 7600 DraftKings 8000 DraftStreet 17341
The Cardinals have been real, real bad against lefty pitching so far this season. They rank near the bottom of the league in OPS and wOBA against southpaws and Liriano, while not exactly a control freak, represents an upside play for very middle of the pack prices. A side effect of the crazy Fernandez price is that some other pitchers prices drop some. Liriano is one of those cases. His xFIP is 3.62, acceptable, with the big knock being the walks. Again, this isn't a cash game play by any means, but for K upside you can roll it out.

Madison Bumgarner FanDuel 9100 DraftKings 9600 DraftStreet 18243
Another guy who won't break the bank with an advantageous (though a bit risky) matchup. The Dodgers strike out the third most in the league against lefties, at a 25% clip. They have a meaty top of the order, but a somewhat precipitous drop toward the bottom. Again, this is a tournament play but Bumgarner has been solid this season, striking out almost 10.5 per 9 innings and limiting the long ball. It's also worth noting that the Dodgers have only a .646 team OPS against lefties this season (a little Babip driven, but still).

Jason Hammel FanDuel 7000 DraftKings 9000 DraftStreet 14525
Not as good as his 2.43 ERA would suggest, but still a quality start today against the swing-happy Braves. Atlanta is 27th in the league in OPS against righties and swing and miss a bunch. They have a 23% K-rate, and much like the Dodgers (but worse) have a bottom of the lineup that really has issues producing runs (or hits, or getting on base). Hammel's big boost is that's he's really limited the free passes this season, averaging only a bit more than one per nine. The .181 babip is due for a healthy regression but the Braves offer an opportunity to limit that a smidge because of how much they strike out.

Jenrry Mejia FanDuel 5900 DraftKings 7500 DraftStreet 15810
Another upside play in the mid range. Mejia's xFIP sits about 1.70 runs less than his ERA and he's been striking out his share of guys. The walks are a problem but the Phillies make a nice matchup because they basically aren't any good. Hovering near the bottom of the league on offense, Mejia could rack up the strikeouts without having to pitch around any great threats (besides Utley).

 

Catchers

Buster Posey FanDuel 4100 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 8932
Posey has, by far, the highest expectation of any catcher. This is of course usually the case, but today it is especially the case. He is so, so much better against lefties hitting to the tune of a 149 wRC+ and .890 OPS last year against that hand. Going to be a stretch to fit his salary into your lineups, especially if you go for any of the pricier pitching options. But man, he stands to outscore every other catcher, almost doubling them up from an expectation standpoint.

Brian McCann FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 5697
If you aren't going Posey, McCann is the next best thing. Hasn't had the best start to his time with the Yankees, but not to fear pinstripe fans, there are good times ahead. McCann is a big time victim of Babip as it's trailing his career number but more than 80 points. The rest of his batted ball numbers are in line with his career. This is all to say, you are buying low on McCann right now for sure. His K's are down (so are the walks, but that might be from him pressing and making weaker contact) and I think he's in a great spot against Gallardo tonight.

Mike Zunino FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 3400 DraftStreet 5517
Only considering him from an upside standpoint against Vargas. Zunino's issue is he strikes out so much. His K rate is NSFW. But good news is Jason Vargas isn't interested in whatever "K" means. (He doesn't know, seriously). I like to target guys like Zunino on night like this when he runs into a pitcher who doesn't stand to overpower him. Upside only, but worth a shot at punt prices.

Consider: Travis d'Arnaud

 

First Basemen

Freddie Freeman FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 7830
One reason I love rolling DFS is that there are times when a guy's price tag is dropping because of recent performance and you stand to scoop him before the salary spikes again. Freeman is a perfect example. He hasn't gone yard in ten days and his salary has dipped because of it. He hasn't been bad mind you (narrowly missed a home run against the Cards the other night) but the big spike in points from the home run hasn't been there. Hence the price dip. Buy now. Jason Hammel is just okay and this is such a great value.

Joey Votto FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 4800 DraftStreet 6669
Much like Freeman, Votto's price has come down because he hasn't had a big game in quite some time. Specifically, he hasn't hit a home run in three weeks. That's a gross stretch of time. But literally everything else about his game is in line with his career numbers. He's still walking more than he's striking out, getting on base and basically being a great baseball player. His Babip is about 50 points below his career average (.353!!!) which tells a little of the story. This is another great cash game buy-low.

Eric Hosmer FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 6722
My buddy Pac texts me all the time to complain about Hosmer. He wants him to be something he's not. And I that's been a sore point in Hosmer's career. He has never lived up to expectations. Thankfully in DFS we don't give too many shits about that. But what we do like is the matchup today against Maurer and that Hosmer's price is low on a day when you might be spending on pitching.

Consider: Paul Goldschmidt, Juan Francisco

 

Second Basemen

Anthony Rendon FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 8833
Rest assured, I'll be putting Rendon and Werth (below) in many a spot together tonight. They own some of the most favorable v. lefty platoon splits you'll see in the majors. Tommy Milone could be in for it today. Rendon in his short career has a 158 wRC+ and .940 OPS against lefties. He's been awesome against them and though he's a bit expensive in some places like DraftStreet, I think there are spots you should take a shot on him. He's just too good against lefties.

Daniel Murphy FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 6454
I like Murphy as a cash game play because he is just so steady. He won't put together a line that will likely win you any tournament, but on the flip side he rarely produces a zero. He's steady Eddy and that has it's value in certain situations. If you are looking for a mid tier guy in double up formats, that can nearly guarantee points, he's your guy.

Jose Altuve FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 6904
Significantly better against lefties over his career, this is a solid spot to take him against Chen. I wish Altuve wasn't such a free swinger and took a few more walks considering his Eddie Gaedel stature. but it's hard to ignore Altuve's career .360 wOBA against lefties. This alone make him worth the time today.

 

Shortstops

Asdrubal Cabrera FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 4835
Had a day yesterday for sure. You know this, but our system doesn't and it still likes him as a top SS play against Odorizzi. Cabrera isn't a great hitter. He's a fine hitter at a position that has really only top end talent and then a marked drop into the dregs of MLB offense. Cabrera has some pop and Odorizzi is an average pitcher who can let up his share of home runs. The big thing here is the price, which is firmly in the punt range.

Jose Reyes FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 6950
Coming out of whatever was ailing him to start the season. He's hit in seven of his last nine games (just one hit will do) and some of the Babip-y issues that plagued him early could be starting to regress. The matchup isn't perfect against Garret Richards who's been bringing the strike outs this year. But he's also been bringing the walks. Almost five per nine. Getting Reyes on base in the key with the guys who hit behind him. I like this as a mid range play with some upside if Toronto can stay patient with Richards.

J.J. Hardy FanDuel 2400 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 4424
His salary is so bargain basement right now and he faces a lefty. The career splits really favor Hardy and Scott Feldman isn't good. Or at least isn't a lefty to avoid by any stretch of the imagination. the problem is more on Hardy. He's been real, real bad to start this season, with an OPS around .550 (doesn't get much worse than that). But he does have long ball pop and Camden Yards boosts power to all batters.

Jonathan Villar FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 6395
I only even think about him against lefties, and even then I don't think about him too terribly much. But for his career Vllar has rocked a 112 wRC+ against lefties and Wei-Yin Chen is a league average lefty with very little upside. Villar has been good to start the year, with a couple of huge games interspersed with a lot of nothing. Seems like a feast or famine play, but the splits are favorable.

 

Third Basemen

This position is feeling a little gross tonight.
Carlos Santana FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 6892
I still believe. I really do. I play him on all the wrong days and yet I still do believe. Gets a fine matchup against Odorizzi today and remember that Babip is primary culprit in Santana's early season struggles. Right now his Babip is trailing his career average by over .120 points. That's an insanely bad run, attributed (at least on the surface) to a spike in IFFB%. His walks and K's look about the same and I think he's going to be a big climber in the next couple of weeks. Still buying low.

Luis Valbuena FanDuel 2200 DraftKings 2800 DraftStreet 4050
Love how much he walks. Don't love how much he strikes out. I'm still not a big believer in what Teheran has been doing this season and certainly wouldn't avoid any of the Cubs guys because of who's on the mound. Valbuena hits in the middle of the order and comes at rock bottom prices across the industry. On a day where third base is weak, it's not the worst idea to spend the least and upgrade in other spots.

Consider: Nick Castellanos

 

Outfielders

Bunch of solid choices here tonight.
Jayson Werth FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 8014
Put him in coach, he's ready to play...against a lefty. Or however that terrible song goes. For his career, Werth has a wRC+ of 148 against lefties, OPS-ing well over 900. Tommy "Machine Gun" Milone is trash's trash. He sucks. Werth has one of the highest point expectations of any outfielder tonight and really should work his way into as many of your cash game lineups as you can fit. He won't completely break the bank for you, but has big time upside.

Adam Jones FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 5284
The price remains crazy low on Jones still and this is definitely the time to be buying him. For his career he's basically platoon neutral (a bit better against righties actually) but regardless of that, the story here is the price. He's hovering around punt prices sitting in the heart of the Orioles order. Granted that lineup is weaker without Crush, but just the placement alone, with the power and speed upside, make him a strong start against a league average pitcher in Feldman.

Alex Gordon FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 5775
What a great time to be buying on Alex Gordon. He, like Jones above, has entered punt price territory. His early season has seen a power outage, but the only big concern from his batted ball profile is the LD% dipping considerably, with an uptick in GB%. This is not great, but not alarming either. His Babip is 40 points off his career average and he gets Brandon Maurer coming to town. On a night of aces, target the shitbox* pitchers. Maurer is one such guy and Gordon is looking great tonight.
*inudstry term

Jason Heyward FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 5093
Has had a miserable start to the year, but I think a'change is a'comin. His HR/FB is way, way off his career average with the rest of his batted ball profile basically aligning with the rest of his time in the majors. This alone is a reason to buy now. Those fly balls will turn into home runs. It's not a "he's due" kind of thing as much as if a player continues to perform in every way the same, with one thing different, the regression will work in your favor. Price is so low. I'm really pumped about the OF upside tonight. Can you tell?

Gerardo Parra FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 5903
Not as excited here, but Parra is better against righties and Rienzo isn't good against anybody.

Coco Crisp FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 7338
Another OF you can grab at a discount right now. Crisp is a threat across multiple stat categories (feels like I'm back writing about the NBA with that line) and has been a bit *meh of late. With Doug Fister coming back for his first start from injury, I like putting Criso out there at a bit of a discount, especially on FanDuel.

Hunter Pence FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 8100
Really in the conversation any time there is a lefty around. Especially one like Maholm who seems to abhor the strikeout. Pence crushes southpaws with a 134 wRC+ over his career. Target him today if you can get the salary in.

 

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