Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 5/12/14

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Pitchers

Felix Hernandez FanDuel 9700 DraftKings 11300 DraftStreet 23366
He is top of the list for a few reasons, many of which need no explanation but I'll bore the shit out of you any way with them. He is, by far, the best pitcher from a talent standpoint out there today. There's a precipitous drop after him. He has the highest total point expectation of anyone out there, and for cash games, he represents some modest safety. His downside today is the opponent. The Rays are super patient and really don't strike out a ton. They will grind out Hernandez over the course of the game. But King Felix's talent tells the story here and he has 10K upside almost every time he hits the mound.

Dan Haren FanDuel 8000 DraftKings 10000 DraftStreet 21436
Haren has had a great start to the season, mostly because he's limited the home runs in a pretty significant way. The question there is whether his HR/FB% is sustainable. It probably isn't the 5% rate being about half his career average. So expect some regression in that department. But even with some long balls heading out of the stadium, his strikeout numbers are strong and he's kept the walks down. He faces a Marlins team that is among the worst offenses in the league on the road. Some of this is Babip fueled (compared to their insane home Babip). The truth probably lies somewhere in between. They are no longer a bottom-feeding offense, but they aren't the team that currently sits near the top of the league against righties. I think Haren is a pretty safe play today.

Hiroki Kuroda FanDuel 7500 DraftKings 8400 DraftStreet 14789
The big story here is the Mets, who suck. They rank at or near the bottom in pretty much every category you can think of against righties this season. They are also terrible against lefties, but Kuroda doesn't throw with that arm. They strikeout a lot, don't hit any home runs (or even extra base hits) and the lineup has glaring holes which the DH slot tonight will do little to solve. Kuroda has been a little better than average this season with an xFIP of 3.57. He won't blow the Mets away, but I very much doubt they tag him in any big way. A really solid price all around.

Tyler Lyons FanDuel 4200 DraftKings 7300 DraftStreet 14333
The Cubs strikeout at an ungodly rate against lefties, with a K% north of 27%. That's a nutso number that with only the Braves nudging them out. After those two teams, there a 10% drop to the next closest squad. Because of this, and his skill set, Lyons is coming at a completely reasonably price today. He's been striking out a batter an inning and carries a 3.55 xFIP (small sample) into today's game. On two pitcher sites he makes a solid play with some upside. I think the downside is pretty limited too considering how poorly the Cubs hit lefties.

Consider: Travis Wood

 

Catchers

Jason Castro FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 3916
Was a DFSR top catcher play yesterday. Result? Dong. He tops the list again against Colby Lewis, a pitcher who has "gets rocked" tendencies. Lewis isn't awful, but does let up home runs (11.6 HR/FB rate over his career). I am all over Castro again today and it doesn't have to do with his performance yesterday. The considerations today line up to make him a value based on projected performance. He's coming at crazy discounted prices today.

Derek Norris FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 3200 DraftStreet 4895
Went off yesterday against the lefty the Gonzalez. Norris, is a lefty mauler and I really did a disservice not recommending him yesterday. He was near the top of our list but I left him off because of matchup. Woops. That isn't an issue today. John Danks blows. Norris's one downside is the A's do pinch hit for him late in games if there is a lefty on the mound. He loses ABs when this happens. But his OPS was close to 1.000 last season against lefties. So there's that.

Consider: Brian McCann, Evan Gattis

 

First Basemen

Prince Fielder FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 9663
Still a great time to be buying on Prince where his price hasn't corrected yet. (A bit steep on DraftStreet). Fielder has been crushed in Babip this season, partly to do with a big jump in his GB%. His hitting has been anything but consistent. But that's where Mr. Brad Peacock comes in. Peacock is terrible, walking almost seven batters per nine. This is about as high a number as I've seen, even in a small sample. Buy now on Fielder.

Albert Pujols FanDuel 4000 DraftKings 5200 DraftStreet 9558
Albert has beat up on lefties to start the season which is in line with his career 172 wRC+ against southpaws. He's a bit more expensive than Fielder for slightly less of an expected points total, but still makes a great play against Buehrle who's ERA is in no way reflective of just how mediocre he is as a pitcher. I'd consider stacking righty Angels against him today.

Consider: Freddie Freeman, Mark Teixeira

 

Second Basemen

Howie Kendrick FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 7040
Kendrick is actually pretty platoon neutral over his career, with a slight uptick against lefties. He's basically just an above average hitter who you should take a little longer look at when he's facing a guy like Buehrle. Kendrick has had a nice start to the year, with an early 800 OPS and hitting in the middle of the order behind guys like Trout and Pujols never hurts. I like a lot of Angels today for the prices and opponent. Kendrick offers a mid range price at a weak position.

Dee Gordon FanDuel 3900 DraftKings 4900 DraftStreet 7001
Feels like a bit of an overpay, but so many of the other second base options are really weak. Gordon's Babip is a solid 70 points higher than his career average, which is helping to contribute to his runs and stolen bases. He needs to get on base to provide DFS value because he is a non power threat. Good news here is that Tom Koehler doesn't strike guys out, making Gordon likely to be putting the ball in play. This is the upshot for him because once on base, he is off to the races.

Consider: Jonathan Schoop

 

Shortstops

Hanley Ramirez FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 5000 DraftStreet 6662
Sort of entering the must start range for me because the rest of the field is so barren and he has such a higher point expectation than his "peers" at the position. As I mentioned with Dee Gordon above, Tom Koehler is trash and don't let tht sub 2.00 ERA fool you even a little bit. His xFIP is in the mid 4's. Koehler is a ground ball pitcher but I don't see that being an issue for Hanley. Ramirez's Babip is about 50 points off his career average and the HR/FB% is about 5% off. These numbers should regress and you are going to want to buy as a he begins to get priced like the elite class of offensive shortstops. (small group)

Jed Lowrie FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 6342
Probably the only other direction I'll be going besides Hanley today and it's mostly a price consideration thing. Lowrie comes a little cheaper, with less upside. But the matchup is choice against Danks and Lowrie is significantly better in his career against lefties. Lowrie owns a career 123 wRC+ against southpaws with an OPS over 800. For a shortstop, at these prices, you should have him in some spots, especially some A's stacks.

Consider: Ian Desmond

 

Third Basemen

Josh Donaldson FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 8532
Noticing an A's theme today? You should be. Our system really gives a boost against Danks and A's are all modestly priced. Another great example here is Donaldson who is coming especially cheap on DraftKings and FanDuel. Donaldson obliterated lefty pitching last season. Completely crushed it with an OPS over 1.100 and a wOBA of .442. Those numbers are other-wordly. He's been a little worse this year, but only compared to his otherwise awesome self. As far as cash games are concerned, I think with some cheaper pitching options going today you are easily going to be afford him in your lineup.

Pablo Sandoval FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 3778
He's been mired in a pit of Babip and K% despair to start this season. The former is him grounding out a bit more and getting very unlucky. The latter could represent him pressing as a result. That is tougher to say. But Sandoval is coming at near minimum prices which makes him a bargain even with just a little regression to the mean with his Babip. Simply put: he shouldn't be this cheap. His $3,778 tag on DraftStreet is worth playing almost just on a whim.

Consider: Alberto Callaspo, Mike Olt

 

Outfielders

So many great choices here tonight that I'm going to list about five top plays and then a bunch of dudes to consider. OF will make for some tough choices.

Shin-Soo Choo FanDuel 4200 DraftKings 5100 DraftStreet 8564
Has come to Texas and not disappointed even a little bit. Choo has been an on-base machine, getting on at a .471 rate which is crazy. He can thank, in some part, a Babip over 400 which will start coming back to Earth. But our system doesn't account for this. All it sees is how bad Brad Peacock is at pitching baseballs and what Choo can do against right handed pitching. Even with the big tag Choo still makes a top play at the top of the Ranger lineup. I'll be working him into cash games whenever possible and I see him as the number one option across the board today regardless of position.

Yoenis Cespedes FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 7992
Not in the class of Choo for me today, but not too far behind. Cespedes had an OPS close to 900 against lefties last season with a wOBA of .376. He's been limiting his strikeouts to start the season and been showing more patience at the plate, with the walk rate up a bit. These are great signs that he's headed in the right direction as a hitter. Get him into some A's stacks today.

Mike Trout FanDuel 4900 DraftKings 5700 DraftStreet 10323
Let me be clear, for the money, I much prefer Choo today. But Trout against really anybody is in the conversation. Trout against a soft-tossing lefty is giddy-up time. Trout's big issue this year has been the K. He's getting punched out more than 26% of the time, which is about 5% more than his career average. Could be nothing. Could be something. Too soon to tell. He's still awesome and with so many Angels at great values today, I think he should find his way into some of your lineups. Just watch those K's on efficiency sites.

George Springer FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 3200 DraftStreet 4902
Putting a cheaper option in here. Springer has hit home runs in two of his last four games and could be starting to get more comfortable in his major league skin. Gets a good matchup against Colby Lewis today. The big concern for Springer is the strikeout which limits his upside on sites like DraftStreet. But his power bat at punt prices is something worth considering in a GPP style contest.

Consider these guys depending on the structure of your lineup
Leonys Martin
Mitch Moreland
Jason Heyward
Allen Craig
Jacoby Ellsbury

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