Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 5/22/14
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Zack Greinke FanDuel 10000 DraftKings 12100 DraftStreet 23116
Meet the Mets. Meets the Mets. Step right up and beat the Mets. I suspect that's what will be happening today. And though the New York faithful might not exactly appreciate the sentiment, it's very much the case with the blue and orange. They rank real damn close to the bottom on the league in every relevant hitting category against righties. It won't change too terribly much today. Greinke has been an animal this season, striking out more than 10 per 9 and keeping that xFIP under 2.70. He's pitching against one of the weakest hitting bunches in all of baseball in a ballpark that depresses power. He was made for cash games today even if you need to pay.
Lance Lynn FanDuel 7900 DraftKings 9700 DraftStreet 16722
He's just fine and that's all you are looking for today. After Darvish (who I don't think I'll pay for because of opponent) and Greinke there isa group of arms that all have question marks around them. Either they are coming back from injury, have a less than ideal matchup or both. Lynn represents a guy who can generate strikeouts in the right situation and can grind out some innings. He faces an average Diamondbacks team in Busch Stadium that depresses power to all bats. This is a decent spot for a guy who I don't suspect gets blown up, a very real consideration for many of the pitchers going today.
Aaron Harang FanDuel 6800 DraftKings 9900 DraftStreet 15530
Can't believe I'm doing it. I'm really doing it. Oh man. Breath Doug, breath. It pains me to say this, but Harang's resurgence just might be for real. With every start, as his sample size grows and the underlying numbers normalize, he looks like just a really good pitcher. I'm as shocked as you. He's striking out more than a batter an inning and his xFIP sits only a fraction about his sub 3 ERA. The Brewers sit in the bottom half of the league against righties, though a little of this is grain-of-salt territory because they've dealt with a number of injuries this year, and Braun is back. But I actually like Harang today. Weird.
Jake Arrieta FanDuel 5200 DraftKings 6200 DraftStreet 12633
Let's target matchup here. The Padres are awful, generating a team wOBA of .274 against righties. This is real bad. Even with their home ballpark in consideration, it sucks. They have a lineup of guys who would hit near the bottom of real lineups. Even the ones sitting at the top of theirs. It's a dire situation. Arrieta comes real cheap with K upside. He isn't as good as the sub 3 ERA would suggest, so temper your giddiness some. But I think you can slot him in as a second or third pitcher (where possible). I suspect he'll be a heavy GPP play because of his price and upside.
Consider: Matt Garza on the Braves K numbers
Miguel Montero FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 5700
I've been loving the Miguel Montero bounce back season. He's a really effective offensive catcher, and he never even really got his due in his prime. He's got 114 wRC+ against right handed pitching for his career, and he's been the same both home and on the road. Lynn is okay and everything, but it's a dry day for catcher, and Montero tops my list.
Wilson Ramos FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 6398
The time to grab Ramos is now, while he's shaking the cobwebs off. He's actually been pretty good this year, and is the victim of a BABIP 90 points lower than his career levels. His walk rate is up, and while he prefers lefties, he's plenty effective against righties as well. Especially ones like Volquez.
Tyler Flowers FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 3200 DraftStreet 4250
Flowers has been oddly effective this year, in spite of the K rate north of 30%. He's dirt cheap, and a great bargain option in a nice pitcher's park against the mediocre David Phelps.
Also considered: Mike Zunino
Chris Davis FanDuel 4300 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 8252
Tales of Mr. Davis' demise seem to have been greatly exaggerated. He gets to build upon his monster game against Josh (bless his heart) Tomlin, who has struck out fewer than 4 guys per nine innings this year. Not a typo. The bad news is: if you can't strike anyone out, that means Davis is putting the ball in play. This usually isn't good for starting pitchers. Just saying.
Mike Napoli FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 5554
Oh. Man. I love Napoli today. For all the 'he knows how to win' nonsense, Buehrle has a worse than 2:1 K:BB this year, and has amassed a total of 35 Ks in 59 Innings. Buehrle is going pumpkin soon, and I think it starts at the hands of Mike Napoli and his Red Sox pals.
Ryan Howard FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 5386
We keep recommending Howard against righties, and he keeps returning value. Not a lot changes against Henderson Alvarez, whose pitch to contact routine should be pretty unimpressive for the hulking Phillies slugger.
Dustin Pedroia FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 5000 DraftStreet 7211
Same stuff as Napoli - and interestingly, Pedroia has a bigger platoon split than the Red Sox first baseman. Pedroia LOVES hitting left handed pitching, and again, Beuhrle is ten times as lucky as he is good. It falls apart in Fenway. Mark my words.
Neil Walker FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 6507
I apologize if it gets boring to read the same names every night, but Walker really is that good against right handed pitching, especially at these prices. Treinen is a pretty "meh" prospect, and I think the experienced Walker works his way on base a couple of times with upside for more.
Jose Altuve FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 7683
The price is climbing on Altuve, but who cares? He's so fun to root for. He's been spraying the ball all over the place, and he's pretty indifferent to where he hits. He's actually a MONSTER platoon split guy, too, with a 132 wRC+ against lefties vs. just an 84 wRC+ against righties. Elias has been OK this year, but I think Altuve continues his hot streak.
Also considered: Chase Utley
Elvis Andrus FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 6087
Andrus has pretty aggressive splits in favor of him facing lefties and at a position that's always tough to fill with consistent value or upside or guys not names Tulo, what else can we ask for? Robbie Ray has a 0.70 ERA but this isn't a real number. His xFIP is more than three runs higher. Andrus's big upside is on the basepaths. He won't hit for power, but if he's on base the steals follow. I think the Rangers get to Ray today and I'm looking to get some of their righty bats in the mix.
Hanley Ramirez FanDuel 3900 DraftKings 5100 DraftStreet 7366
Doesn't rate out too terribly high in our system from a points per dollar perspective, but in terms of raw output you can look his way. Over the last year he's slaughtered lefties with almost an 1.100 OPS against them. Niese isn't a bottom-feeding pitcher, but he's not Randy Johnson either. Even with the ballpark depressing power (although not last night, Hanley jacked one) I still like getting him in there. His bat is starting to come around after running bad to start the year. We are still buying low on him.
Xander Bogaerts FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 5453
Feels like he gets a hit every game. But it also feels like he doesn't do too much else. Bogaerts seems very much in the Erick Aybar class of shortstop. Just kind of go out there and don't really do anything except collect singles. If the other guys know you in, fine. But they don't steal or hit for power. Bogaerts is ultimately reliant on those around him and timeliness. But he gets on base and his price is low. Plus he's significantly better against lefties and Beurhle is just *meh.
Consider: Ian Desmondand JJ Hardy
Adrian Beltre FanDuel 3900 DraftKings 5200 DraftStreet 8444
Crushes lefty pitching and I've already laid out with Andrus why I think Robbie Ray is ripe for the picking on. Beltre's power upside is of course there even with Comerica coming in at about neutral for righties. What I'm mostly looking at here are the splits. Beltre has a 149 wRC+ and .398 wOBA against lefties over the last year and should be able to get to a, so far, very luck Robbie Ray. Ray isn't trash mind you. He seems about average. Beltre's prices are a bit steep for his points per dollar in our system, but he has the highest expected points among third basemen.
Carlos Santana FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 4151
Santana's a guy who ranks much higher in our system, and has been there all season. The problem for him is that he remains a great "value" mostly because his early season returns stand in stark contrast to his expectation going forward. This is a nice way to say his numbers are super shitty and it's keeping his cost down. The Babip is in the basement at .168 in part because he is grounding out a ton. That might be a sign that something is up with him. But he still walks a bunch, which limits his downside on non-efficiency sites. Worth a look against Chen, but beware.
Manny Machado FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 5158
He's had a slow start coming back from injury. Use it to grab him at low prices now. Machado isn't a great hitter, but he's pretty damn good. He need to make solid contact to get on base because the walk rate is low. But he has pop and He squares off against Josh Tomlin, a well below average pitcher. Machado also benefits from hitting in front of Jones, Davis and Cruz meaning if he's on base, the expectation to come in and score is decent.
Pedro Alvarez FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 5762
I want him against mediocre righties. Blake Treinen everyone. Treinen, while probably not terrible, isn't a big swing and miss guy, Alvarez's fatal flaw. I am in on Pedro any time he faces a righty without put away stuff.
Consider Pablo Sandoval
Almost too many great options here tonight.
Alex Rios FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 7624
You get it. Rangers' righties are in our crosshairs today. And from a pure value standpoint, Rios might be the best of them all. He has such a crazy platoon split it really isn't funny. Over the last year his OPS versus lefties is .974 while against righties it's .692. Aren't many ranges bigger than that one. Which basically means that his price will fall in line with his average production and when there is a lefty on the hill you buy, buy, buy.
Hunter Pence FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4900 DraftStreet 6892
Another guy who we'll hone in on when he's facing lefties and gets the added bump of hanging around Coors Field tonight. He took advantage last night and could very well go yard here again. de la Rosa is an average lefty and Pence handles those guys with ease. His 168 wRC+ over the last year against lefties tells most of the story. And Coors? Well, it's Coors. With him I'd pair: AngelPagan
Shane Victorino FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 6937
Want an interesting stat on Victorino? His HR/FB% is 0.0. Now you could probably have surmised this from his 0 HRs. I have that much faith in you. But both zeros are not created equally. One is a byproduct of the other's unluckiness. I don't even know if I'm making sense, but it's straight in my head. Shane's batted ball profile looks pretty much in line with the rest of his career. Except for the one number. Which leads me to believe there is regression coming in the form of some yard work. Mark Buehrle is just the guy for the job.
Matt Kemp FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4800 DraftStreet 7054
Yasiel Puig FanDuel 5100 DraftKings 5600 DraftStreet 10369
Like them both as dudes who mash lefties and face Jon Niese today. If you can fit them together in a stack with Hanley and some cheapies in other places I think you give yourself a bunch of upside.
Matt Holliday FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4800 DraftStreet 4989
Allen Craig FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 4266
Both have favorable splits against lefties and Wade Miley is no prince. Prices for both dudes are well within reason.
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