Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 5/30/14
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Adam Wainwright FanDuel 10900 DraftKings 12600 DraftStreet 24184
Not as good as the 1.67 ERA would suggest, but pretty damned good, Waino is the top pitching play tonight from a safety standpoint. On a night in which some good arms are going, he draws the best matchup of the top group. The Giants rank around the middle of the league in wOBA against righties and strike out about 23% of the time. Wainwright's safety is in his refusal to walk anyone. He allows his share of hits, and is susceptible to the blowup, but I don't see it happening tonight. He comes at a steep price, but you are paying for his strikeout numbers and limited downside.
David Price FanDuel 9200 DraftKings 10100 DraftStreet 18889
I still very much believe. His xFIP is trailing the ERA by nearly 1.5 runs. The Babip is 50 points higher than his career average. the HR/FB is way out of line with his career averages. And the Red Sox actually rank near the bottom of the league in K% against lefties. I'm still buying him. Don't love that it's in Fenway. But the top tier pitchers all have question marks tonight.
Francisco Liriano FanDuel 6900 DraftKings 6200 DraftStreet 13910
Ok, let's parse this out. Frankie L. is by no means a safe play. He walks way,way too many guys to consider in a cash game format. But there's some good news about him today. First, his price is crazy low in some spots, reflective of his 5+ ERA. But the xFIP is a full run and a half lower. He's struggling a little with guys on base and really getting killed on the HR/FB rate. If both of those start trending toward his career averages, we are in business. Plus the Dodgers are sneaky bad against lefties. Like strike out 23% of the time bad. Bottom third of the league bad. Liriano strikes out enough guys to more than justify the prices he's coming at today. This is such a buy low spot.
Josh Beckett FanDuel 7500 DraftKings 9200 DraftStreet 17989
Has nothing to do with the no-hitter. Though now's a good time to mention that we had him as a pick going into that game. Boom. This pick is more about his solid numbers and a mediocre opponent in the Pirates. Beckett has been running hot in the ERA category, but his peripherals are super solid and the Buckos rank about middle of the league in OPS against righties. Beckett is a good, not great play today and makes a nice pairing if you are rostering one of the bigger salary guys.
Marco Estrada FanDuel 7500 DraftKings 8800 DraftStreet 19111
Kind of falls in the same class as Beckett. Their numbers are remarkably similar. Estrada gets the Cubs, a team near the bottom of the league in offense against righties. Marco's K rate is above about 8 per 9, though he's run a little good in Babip. A solid play.
A.J. Burnett FanDuel 7000 DraftKings 7000 DraftStreet 15053
Oof. Only even in the discussion because of the Mets. Burnett is a shell of his former, kind of weird and hard to get a handle on, self. But the Mets live to strikeout and if AJ is going to bounce back against anyone, this is the team.
This position is actually fairly cut and dry today.
Dioner Navarro FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 3200 DraftStreet 6596
If you know MLB DFS you know that Dioner owns the kind of platoon splits against lefties that we'll tell our grandchildren about. Or at least I will because I don't have that many stories. Over the last year against lefties Navarro is rocking a .933 OPS and .404 wOBA. Jason Vargas is a mediocre arm and the Rogers Center offers a big power boost to righty bats. Get ready to read about some Jays today.
Salvador Perez FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 4177
Another guy with a solid split against lefties, though not as dramatic as Dioner's. Perez is a top pick whenever a southpaw strolls to the bump. JA Happ is actually much worse than Vargas, making the decision between Perez and Navarro kind of close. I think you can probably just construct your lineup and see which guy fits better. I'm on both Royals and Blue Jays today which means mixing and matching these two.
Yasmani Grandal FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 5266
I am still a Grandal fan. There aren't many of us left. He gets a decent bump tonight getting to face Danks and this will once again test my resolve when it comes to rostering Padres. They are running bad for the season, but again aren't very good to begin with. I'm sure Padres will be stacked in some spots because of the matchup.
Consider Kurt Suzuki
Edwin Encarnacion FanDuel 4800 DraftKings 5200 DraftStreet 9914
Playing on another level right now. Seems like an automatic home run waiting to happen. Happens every night (or at least that's my perception). You are probably buying high here, the only thing giving me pause about him as a top pick. Feels a little like paying for past performance as he can't keep up this pace by any stretch of the imagination. But he gets a lefty in Toronto. So it's hard to consider fading him. The salary makes it a little easier as he's so expensive. But can't simply ignore what he's been doing.
Adam LaRoche FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 6115
Laroche has crushed this season. He's hitting to the tune of a .900 OPS with a 156 wRC+. These are some of the best numbers you'll see out of any first baseman. He's cut down on his K's and raised his walk rate slightly. Frankly, dude's been a beast. Colby Lewis is trashy, doesn't strike anyone out and walks the ballpark. See where those two ideas meet?
Ike Davis FanDuel 2200 DraftKings 3000 DraftStreet 5399
Surprised to see his name? I was too, but he's at the top of our system, in the points per dollar category, pretty much across the industry. Davis has been decent since joining the Pirates and has been getting the starts against righties. Beckett is a good pitcher, but prone to the long ball over this career. Target Davis mostly as a dude coming at complete punt prices.
Jason Kipnis FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 5965
Back from the DL and giving second base a bat to add to the mix. Kipnis is obviously one of the best hitter the position has to offer. He walks as much as he k's and has been running bad in Babip which is a full seventy points below his career average. I really love where his price is sitting everywhere and he represents some major upside against Nicasio.
Brian Dozier FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4800 DraftStreet 7831
Dozier rocks lefties hard. Kind of like what I was doing in today in my car when AC/DC came on in the car and my daughter looked at me like I was nuts. She got on board quick though. I digress. Dozier rocks that hard, with a 152 wRC+ over the last year against lefties. Vidal Nuno? Meh.
Jedd Gyorko FanDuel 2200 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 4343
Has hit safely in seven of his last ten games, is significantly better in his splits against lefties, faces John Danks, has an insanely low Babip, and is coming at punt prices in one of the best parks in the majors for righty power. Need anything else?
Just about every night I hate shortstop so why should this evening be any different? I'll be honest. This thing is a total crapshoot. I can make cases for an against just about every play. I'm going rapid fire here with the case for and against each guy.
See what I'm getting at here? All of these guys are near the top of our systems in points per dollar. But are all so uninspiring.
Trevor Plouffe FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 5615
Man there are so many righties set to potentially beast on lefty pitching. Feel like this whole writeup is just filled with them. Plouffe's OPS is close to .800 over the last year against lefties and he falls much in line with why I like Dozier today. Both of them get the added bonus of playing in Yankee Stadium, a park that really helps with right-handed power (and really power from everywhere). Plouffe is an advantageous buy tonight considering his HR/FB rate is running a few ticks below his career average. Heading into a hitter's park is a great time to snag him.
Brett Lawrie FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 5005
Continuing the theme of recommending as many Blue Jay hitters as this space will handle, Lawrie makes another solid play tonight. Unlike a lot of the other recs tonight, Lawrie doesn't get a boost from a favorable platoon split. He's neutral for his career. He is just a cost guy, coming in at low prices against an average pitcher.
Evan Longoria FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 6734
I usually stick to him against lefties, but we can make an exception tonight. Workman hasn't been bad in his limited major league run, but he's still has only about fifty innings of big league work under his belt. His price is decent, though nothing to completely write home about. I like the two guys above him much better for the buck, but think Longo makes a solid play.
Consider Chase Headley
Jay Bruce FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 4534
Billy Hamilton FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 5605
Grouping these guys together against Arroyo tonight. They are different considerations after we address that Bronson Arroyo has been terrible for his career against lefties. He's been better over the last year, but in general lefty bats have given him issues. For Bruce, he has complete power upside though his bat has looked a little funky when he's been on the field this year. Striking out a little more, but the Babip and HR/FB are low so I think there is some regression coming in both. Hamilton on the other hand is in a great spot here as Arroyo can't blow him away. He's a threat to swipe some bags if he gets on base.
Ryan Braun FanDuel 4700 DraftKings 5500 DraftStreet 8307
He has the highest raw number of any outfielder going tonight. Travis Wood is a slightly above average lefty. But that should matter not for Braun owners. Our projection system has him coming in with some high point totals. It's just a matter of whether you can afford him. The salary is high, but so is his projection.
Jose Bautista FanDuel 4000 DraftKings 5300 DraftStreet 8989
He should go to jail for what he does to lefty pitching. I'm sure it has to be illegal in a few of our more litigious states. He gets down and dirty on southpaws with an OPS over 1K in the last year and an insane .429 wOBA. The Blue Jays are so, so enticing tonight for how well their lineup hits against lefties. Vargas isn't a bottom feeder by any means, but the Jays are good. Joey Bats and E5 the best of the bunch.
Carlos Quentin FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 6964
Chris Denorfia FanDuel 2400 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 5073
Both of these dudes OPs over .800 against lefties and I'm sure they OPS even better against garbage can lefties like Danks. You will probably need exposure to at least some Pads tonight because they are basically free across the board and are heading in to a hitter's park. Denorfia and Quentin hit in the top of the order against lefties, and their platoon splits favor them in this matchup. I just feel gross for how many Padres I've thrown out there.
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