Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks

FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 6/9/14

 

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Pitchers

Stephen Strasburg FanDuel 9900 DraftKings 11400 DraftStreet 23010
Going chalkity-chalk-chalk here. Really no way around it. I do know the case against Strasburg today and it involves the career home/road splits. He's a better pitcher at home, plain and simple. His career ERA is a half run worse on the road where he also doubles his walk rate. Who knows why these things happen, but they have. And you need to be aware of it. That being said, if you are going to play him on the road this is for sure a spot to make it happen. The Giants strike out about 23% of the time against righties and AT&T park is a pitcher's delight. Even with the home/road idea I'm still totally fine playing Strasburg today.

Tony Cingrani FanDuel 7500 DraftKings 7700 DraftStreet 15003
After Strasburg the pitcher pool thins out rather quickly so a quick disclaimer: I don't think Cingrani is very good. What I'm betting on here is that the Dodgers are even worse. LA ranks second to last in the league against lefty pitching sputtering to a .278 team wOBA against that hand. They strike out a bunch and really drop off a cliff in terms of talent after about the fifth hole. With Puig out the Dodgers get considerably worse, leaving only Hanley and to some extent Van Slyke as threat. (Kemp has been worse against lefties over the last year) Cingrani has a K upside along with some control issues. This is merely an upside play as he can walk the ballpark. But the Dodgers aren't good right now.

Dan Haren FanDuel 7300 DraftKings 8100 DraftStreet 15297
On the other side of things, the Reds also suck offensively. They rank dead last in the league against right handed pitching. And I wouldn't say there is any silver lining on the horizon. The Reds are a bad team without any real big time threats in the line up. Sure Bruce has power and Hamilton offers some speed at the top. But so many holes are here that opposing pitchers will rarely find themselves giving up big innings. Haren is a safer play. He doesn't have Cingrani's K upside, but he also isn't likely to get bombed. The walk rate is a minuscule 1.45/9 and his 3.54 xFIP is right in line with his ERA. If you are looking to save in cash games, this is the way to go.

Consider Edwin Jackson if you don't value your sanity

 

Catchers

Alex Avila FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 3300 DraftStreet 3732
Victor Martinez FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 9135
Where VMart qualifies I'd rather have him. But Avila makes an acceptable play as well. Hector Noesi sucks and both guys are better against righties (Avila to a crazy degree). You probably need a little exposure to the Tigers today just because of the pitching matchup. Even with the offenses going in Coors on a shorter day, targeting one of the worst pitchers going is an acceptable strategy. It really works in this case because catcher doesn't have a ton of options.

A.J. Pierzynski FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 5664
If not going with the Tigers' then A.J. makes a solid upside play because of Bud Norris and the ballpark. Camden Yards ranks only behind Coors in terms of boosting lefty power and is tied with Yankee Stadium. Pierz gets a bump in his multiplier because the long ball expectation ticks up quite a bit. AJ isn't particularly good, but this is where you buy a guy like this at lower prices. To fill a need.

 

First Basemen

There are so many good first base options today that I could make a case for about five guys depending on your criteria. This is where many leagues will be won and lost today because there's a high upside group of guys all within range of each other in terms of points per dollar.

David Ortiz FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 7508
I'm putting Papi first overall today. He has so much going for him. He faces Bud Norris, a dude really struggling with lefties this season. They have a .326 wOBA against him so far. Papi also gets to hit in Camden Yards, one of the best stadiums in the league for lefty power. And finally, Papi is just awesome with an OPS split over 1K against righties over the last year plus. He just crushes these guys, is tough to strikeout and has a high floor because he draws walks in abundance. Coming at super solid prices across the industry, I think you won't see as much of him in lineups as there should be. Which will be great news for you.

Justin Morneau FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 6199
Back in Coors. And that tells most of the story. Morneau, predictably, has been much better at home this season. This isn't exactly groundbreaking analysis. On a deep day at the position I really like Morneau's price tag considering his power and the stadium. Gavin Floyd has shown some flashes this season, but our system isn't totally buying into it. Morneau ranks as a top 1B option and his salary rally allows flexbility elsewhere.

Strongly consider Miguel Cabrera (if he plays) and Freddie Freeman. Honestly, I could have done write ups on these guys just as much as the two above. I hate to hedge like this but this is how close the first basemen are today. You could stand to have exposure to all of them.

 

Second Basemen

Jason Kipnis FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 7154
On FanDuel the price is criminally low and I'd go so far as to call him a must start there. He ranks out as a great play everywhere else, but on FD I just don't see how you avoid playing him. In many ways Kipnis is better this season than last. His K's have decreased and his BB's are trending up. But he's running bad in Babip and Hr/FB%. When/if these numbers begin to regress to his career means you will have some serious value on our hands. Kipnis offers the power/speeed combo that gives so much upside while limiting his floor. I will have him just about everywhere today.

Brian Roberts FanDuel 2400 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 4094
Honestly, I like Kipnis so much today that I'm hesitant to even pick another second baseman. So if I had to go a different direction, I'd go cheap. Roberts stinks. But so does Jason Vargas. Roberts is slightly less stinky against lefties and the Yanks should put up some offense against Vargas today. Again, I'm all over Kipnis, but want to leave you with at least another option.

 

Shortstops

Elvis Andrus FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 6669
Andrus's OPS is almost 100 points higher against lefties over the last year. This is a real kind of split and something we want to keep an eye on when southpaws are on the mound against the Rangers. Speed is the key for Andrus and he needs to swipe a bag to really pay off as he's such a dog to go yard. T.J. House doesn't offer much in the way of resistance here and it's worth it to note for those looking at Andrus's .252 Avg that his Babip is running about 20 points off his career mark. There are hits coming. Nice spot at cheap prices today.

Ian Desmond FanDuel 2200 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 6346
Desmond actually has a reverse platoon split over the last year, something worth knowing when he's facing the righty Vogelsong today. The latter isn't as good as his low three's ERA would let on as the xFIP is above four. Vogelsong isn't a K machine, one of Desmond's biggest issues. His Babip is low and the K's are high, making for a lethal fantasy connection. I think the former will begin to normalize. The latter? A good start is facing pitcher's with career K/9 less than seven. That's the spot he's in today.

Consider Asdrubal Cabrera and Jose Reyes on DraftStreet

 

Third Basemen

Carlos Santana FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 5759
Price is climbing but I'm still buying. Santana looks to be coming out of his early season funk and the salary hasn't quite caught up to his actual worth. The combination of power and patience make him a solid play at his industry prices because he offers ways to get points beyond just his bat. His walk rate gets him on base at a crazy 20% clip. This is about as high as you'll ever see a walk rate. It raises his basement considerably. Oh, and did I mention that Nick Martinez walks as many guys as he strikes out? What a spot for Santana.

Ryan Zimmerman FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 6266
Over the last year Zimmerman has been pretty platoon neutral (edge to facing lefties) with a 125 wRC+ against righties. This is perfectly acceptable for his prices considering his power upside. The Nats are a solid offense, starting to get healthier which extends their lineup. I still don't have a ton of faith in Vogelsong (though I'm coming around) and think the Nats can put up some runs today. Even with the R/R matchup I think you can grab Zimmerman today.

Consider Adrian Beltre though he's pricey and Pedro Alvarez

 

Outfielders

Alex Rios FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 6698
Rios owns one of the true platoon splits in all of baseball. His OPS against righties is .708 while against lefties it's .980 (90 to 165 wRC+). Those splits are just insane and should make you perk up significantly when guys like T.J. House are on the mound against him. Rios is running super bad in his HR/FB rate as it's less than half of his career average. His ceiling is so very high because if the power comes around it'll combine with the stolen bases. Rios has insane upside today and any time a lefty is on the mound.

Justin Upton FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 5100 DraftStreet 5635
Jason Heyward FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 6914
I'd think about putting them together as they venture in to Coors. I don't love taking Upton on this side of his split because he's just so much better against lefties. But the power boost coming in the thin Denver air makes it an acceptable risk. Heyward on the other hand is on the correct platoon split and offers a sweet chance for power coming from the top of the order. The chance of grabbing an extra at bat in a place like Coors isn't something to ignore. Facing Christian Bergman, a fellow whose minor league numbers are less than stellar, makes the Braves outfield a great GPP play. Dare I even say B.J. as a consideration?

Corey Dickerson FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 5245
Been in the lineup with Cargo out. Probably couldn't be expected to keep up his torrid early season price against righties, but our system doesn't account for that kind of early return and still likes him today against Floyd. On the correct side of the platoon split in Coors at low-ish mid tier prices with power is a great place to buy.

Jayson Werth FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 6028
Another instance of taking a play on the wrong side of his platoon split. But Werth is coming pretty cheap in some places mitigating the downside of facing his weaker hand.

Consider Alejandro de Aza and Adam Eaton
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