Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and DraftStreet for 6/11/14

 

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Pitchers

Man there are almost too many options here tonight. Very difficult to narrow down. I could make cases for starting about 8-9 different guys. It's a tough road today. Tried to narrow it down here.

Yu Darvish FanDuel 11400 DraftKings 12200 DraftStreet 26241
Let's clear away the big boys first. Darvish and Tanaka are the two high-priced studs going today. As is the pitching theme, there are strong cases for both. I am going with Darvish with the slight edge over Tanaka. Darvish has the more difficult opponent in the Marlins, but they also strike out at a higher rate than the Mariners. Tanaka feels a little safer in that respect, but if I'm shooting for highest total points I'd roll Darvish. Yu K's a batter more per game, and while the xFIP (3.22) is higher than Tanaka's (2.47), the lines on the game (Yu -200, Masahiro -170) help boost Darvish's win expectancy points just enough to put him over the edge. Look, you can't go wrong either way here if you can afford the salaries. If I had to choose between the two I'd go Yu.

Cole Hamels FanDuel 8400 DraftKings 10600 DraftStreet 19679
The Padres are an offensive abomination. Sure, they've been a bit better of late as the early season saw them running really bad with Babip. But even as that number regresses to the mean we are still left discussing only whether they are bad or just plain awful. They rank near the bottom of the league in offense against lefties with a team .280 wOBA. Hamels is basically the pitcher he's always been. His ERA (3.38) xFIP (3.45) and K/9 (8.95) are all nearly identical to his career averages. These above average numbers are more than enough considering the opponent in the Padres. Hamels' salary won't break the bank and I like his safety today even in a hitter's park.

Hyun-Jin Ryu FanDuel 8200 DraftKings 7900 DraftStreet 15906
Another guy facing a bottom-feeding offense in a hitter's park. The Reds are the only team keeping the Padres out of the cellar. They rank below the Dads in team wOBA and actually strike out even more. This evens out the considerations between Hamels and Ryu as Ryu doesn't K guys at quite the same rate. He strikes out less than eight batters per nine, but he also limits the walks at less than two per nine. When targeting pitchers we want to make sure the opponent is well below average. The Reds are just that and have a leadoff hitter in Hamilton who is almost an auto out against lefties just to start the game.

Michael Wacha FanDuel 8400 DraftKings 9900 DraftStreet 18650
Wacha has been super solid this season. The only thing tempering me a little on him today is the opponent. While the Rays are by no means good, they also really limit their strikeouts. This will ultimately knock down Wacha's upside. We saw it in his last game against the Royals. They didn't beat him up by any means, but his outing was mediocre fantasy wise because he only had one strikeout. That could be much the same again today as the Rays K only 18% of the time. But they are also a weak hitting bunch and the chances of them putting up a big line in that ballpark against Wacha are limited. Wacha strikes out almost a batter an inning and his control keeps him from walking many batters.

Brandon McCarthy FanDuel 7700 DraftKings 6800 DraftStreet 12606
On multi-pitcher sites here's one place to go to start saving some money. McCarthy, by every metric except ERA is having his best season ever. His 2.76 xFIP is more than two runs below his ERA. Basically he's the anti-Chris Young. McCarthy is striking out nearly a batter a inning, walking almost nobody and just getting destroyed in HR/FB rate. The latter I'd say was a byproduct of the park, except he pitched in Chase last year and didn't have these issues. On multi-pitcher sites he is coming at such a severe discount against a middle of the road Astros team that K's a bunch that he will find his way into many of my lineups as salary relief.

 

Catchers

Evan Gattis FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 8367
Won't spend much time thinking about this one. Gattis's 140 wRC+ and .893 OPS against lefties over the last year or so is about as high as you'll see from someone qualifying at catcher. Combine that with a visit to Coors and this is the top catcher play on the day, someone you'll see as a high percentage start. Price is a little high on DraftStreet - don't think I'd pay for him there. But the other two sites you should probably set it and forget it.

Yadier Molina FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 5091
Going to take a Herculean effort to get me away from the Grape, but Molina isn't a bad consideration and a more realistic option when we are making our DraftStreet lineups. Yadier is good against lefties with a.365 wOBA over the last year and what makes him especially appealing on a site like DS is the K rate sits at about 10%. Solid play there for sure. Oh and he faced Erik Bedard. Who sucks.

Brian McCann FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 5821
Another guy I'd consider on DraftStreet mostly because of the price. And Chris Young, who like Bedard, sucks.

 

First Basemen

Miguel Cabrera FanDuel 4800 DraftKings 5700 DraftStreet 9777
The price is up there but I'm suggesting you consider ponying up for him. An extra day to rest the hamstring should only help his cause against a brutal John Danks. Miggy crushes everyone (he's fair like that) and his >1K OPS over the last year against lefties tells most of the story. Even with the apparent injury two days ago he still went yard. The rainout yesterday means we have another day to consider stacking Tigers.

Chris Davis FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 6442
Price is getting so low across the industry. I love it when this happens. Davis is one of the few guys who could get me away from salivating over Miggy today. Crush might not be the player he was last season when his flyball and HR/FB rates jumped considerably. But he is a bargain at these prices against de la Rosa. One thing to remember from Rubby de la Rosa's debut outing was that it was against the Rays. The middle of the Oriole lineup won't be so kind (much like the Tigers) and Davis's prices are too low to ignore.

Albert Pujols FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 5772
Tommy Milone isn't someone we need worry about. Dude's xFIP is in the high fours and he doesn't strike out any real amount of batters. Pujols actually has reverse splits over the last year, but the price has dropped to an acceptable point in order to by even on the wrong side of things.

 

Second Basemen

Ian Kinsler FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4800 DraftStreet 8476
Liked him as the top second base option yesterday and the rain out keeps that the same today. I only wish I had saved his picture for this write up. Kinsler's splits haven't been as stark in favor of facing left handed pitching over the last year, but they're still there. He hit better against southpaws with a .353 wOBA in that time period. He gets an added bump because Danks is trash. So there's that. You'll have to pay up on DraftKings and DraftStreet, but on FanDuel I'd call him close to a must start in cash games today.

Dustin Pedroia FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 6788
The Red Sox seem kind of broken right now, so it's tough to pick some of their guys. But Pedroia has been just so good against lefties in his career, and even in a down year is still much better against that hand. His 117 wRC+ against lefties even includes a .277 Babip, meaning he could be running a little bad. The power is for sure an issue, but he's playing in one of the best hitter's parks in the majors. I'm still holding out hope and his price as compared to Kinsler keeps him in play.

Howie Kendrick FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 5839
His OPS is about eighty points higher against lefties over the last year (.827 to .745) so we are getting him in an advantageous position from that aspect. Kendrick is coming a fair amount cheaper across the industry and will be significantly easier to fit into lineups if you're paying for pitching today. Which you kind of have to do.

Strongly consider Chase Utley

 

Shortstops

Andrelton Simmons FanDuel 2400 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 4359
Had nothing really to do with him going yard last night, or at least our system doesn't have any idea that happened. Andrelton is much better against lefties, his .724 OPS (bad for everyone else, kind of ok for shortstops) against them  is much higher and he's getting the Coors bump to boot. Tyler Matzek was a prospect once and still may be. But his minor league FIP numbers leave an awful lot to be desired. Won't get easier in Coors.

Erick Aybar FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 5232
Shortstop is pretty weak today so I'm looking to save as much money as possible while also snagging a little value in the process. Aybar is just kind of whatever, but his particular brand of bland could serve you fine today against Milone. Aybar does very little bits of offense, but can string together just enough to be relevant on a given night. The righty-heavy Angel lineup should see some opportunity today.

Jean Segura FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 5603
Here's another example of going cheap, this time with speed as our upside. deGrom has a decent K rate, but also walks the ballpark. Segura is far from patient, but stands to see some more time on base against a pitcher with control issues. Segura is slightly worse against righties, but the split isn't extreme. As I said, his legs will win the day today as we target speed at shortstop.

Consider Xander Bogaerts though the price has climbed considerably

 

Third Basemen

Probably going cheap here today. Couple of low dollar options that make the pitching prices a little easier to deal with.

Nick Castellanos FanDuel 2400 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 5682
A great punt type play against the lefty Danks. Castellanos has raked lefties this season with a 136 wRC+ and .372 wOBA when southpaws take the bump. He is so cheap across the industry, especially on FanDuel where he's coming in at close to the minimum. He'll be in many of my lineups there as the salary offers so much flexibility and considering his success against lefties, appears almost safe.

Chris Johnson FanDuel 2300 DraftKings 3600 DraftStreet 2882
Will suck your soul away if you actually watch him bat. But at these prices, against the lefty in Coors, I think you can go for it. But man is it ugly. He is bad. But is as cheap as you can get and facing a new lefty in Coors Field. Go for it.

David Wright FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 4572
There might be something wrong with him as the K rate is up considerably from his career average. But he's also running real bad on HR/FB which is crushing his slugging. I have a feeling the truth lies somewhere in between. Price is hitting the basement on DraftStreet.

Consider Aramis Ramirez

 

Outfielders

Rajai Davis FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 5991
Austin Jackson FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 5951
In my quest to recommend every single Tiger player today, here are a few last guys. Of the two, Rajai has a much more extreme split against lefties with an OPS around .845 over the last year. If he gets on base, the speed can take over. Granted there is a little bit of canceling out when he faces a lefty because guys like Danks are better at holding runnings on. But the upside is still there for both. Jackson is platoon neutral with the price being the ultimate factor. Both these guys work in Tiger stacks or in cash games when looking for cheap-ish safety.

Matt Holliday FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 5345
Allen Craig FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 5412
Two more guys our system has right next to each other and who both come at nice discounts against Erik Bedard, a pitcher whose ERA is (3.61) is outpacing his xFIP (4.71) by more than a run. Both Craig and Holliday have Babips lower than their career averages and Holliday is running real bad with his HR/FB rate. It isn't all a story of luck with these two. But that paints at least part of the picture. They most likely just aren't the top level hitters we though they could be or they were in the past. But their prices now reflect this drop off. In fact, the prices have dropped too much considering their opposition.

Dayan Viciedo FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 4240
Viciedo has actually, over the last year, been pretty even in his platoon splits. But for his career? Well that's a different story completely. The platoon gap is wide with him rocking a 137 wRC+ and .360 wOBA against that hand. Drew Smyly possesses some strikeout stuff, but he also has an xFIP in the 4's and isn't a pitcher that would scare us off starting a guy with such success against lefties.

Jacoby Ellsbury FanDuel 3900 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 8132
Brett Gardner FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 6234
Another outfield pairing sitting right next to each other on our points/$ category. When we are talking by the luckiest pitchers in the universe, Chris Young has to enter the discussion. This guy's Babip is a paltry .205 and his xFIP of 5.89 is nearly two and a half runs higher than his ERA. You won't see a much bigger gap than that this far into the season. We always want to target bad pitching and this is the perfect opportunity. Young is bad. The only thing tempering my excitement here is the ballpark. Safeco really knocks down power from both sides. Both Ellbury and Gardner can make it up with their legs, but they aren't staring at Yankee Stadium's short porch in right.

Play Justin Upton if he makes it back into the lineup

Consider Mike Trout (though it'll be tough to fit him), Ryan Braun, B.J. Upton and Domonic Brown

 

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